Book Description: Prediction: Decision-Making and the Future of Nature, published by Island Press in 2000, addresses the use of scientific prediction in environmental decision making. This book provides insight into the promise and limitations of prediction as a tool for decision-makers, explores alternatives to prediction, presents fresh perspectives about the interface between science and environmental decision making, develops an analytical framework to govern this interface, and makes recommendations that can increase the likelihood of effective decision making. Predictions are examined within the context of 10 case studies, described in the table of contents that follows. Table of Contents: Introduction: Death, Taxes, and Environmental Policy Daniel Sarewitz, Roger Pielke, Jr., and Radford Byerly Jr.   Part I: Predictions as a Problem 1. Prediction in Science and Policy Daniel Sarewitz and Roger Pielke, Jr.   2. Why Predict? Historical Perspectives on Prediction in Earth Sciences Naomi Oreskes   3. Uncertainty, Judgment, and Error in Prediction Thomas R. Stewart   Part II: Disasters Waiting to Happen: Predicting Natural Hazards 4. Short-Term Weather Prediction: An Orchestra in Need of a Conductor William A. Hooke and Roger Pielke, Jr.      5. Flood Prediction: An Issue Immersed in the Quagmire of National Flood Mitigation Strategy Stanley A. Changnon   6. The Asteroid/Comet Impact Hazard: Homo Sapiens as Dinosaur? Clark R. Chapman   7. Predicting Earthquakes: Science, Pseudoscience, and Public Policy Paradox Joanne M. Nigg   Part III: Foreordained Conclusions: Prediction and Politics 8. What You Know Can Hurt You: Predicting the Behavior of Nourished Beaches Orrin H. Pilkey   9. Is This Number to Your Liking? Water Quality Predictions in Mining Impact Studies Robert E. Moran   10. From Tin Roof to Torn Wet Blanket: Predicting and Observing Ground Water Movement at a Proposed Nuclear Waste Site Daniel Metlay   Part IV: Cascades of Uncertainty: Prediction and Policy 11. Oil and Gas Resource Appraisal: Diminishing Reserves, Increasing Supplies Donald L. Gautier   12. Predictive Modeling of Acid Rain: Obstacles to Generating Useful Knowledge Charles Herrick   13. Predictions and its Alternatives in Climate Change Policy Steve Rayner   Part V: Prediction in Perspective 14. Alternatives to Prediction Ronald D. Brunner   15. Prediction in Society Dale Jamieson   16. Prediction and Characteristic Times Radford Byerly Jr.   17. A Decision Framework for Prediction in Environmental Policy Charles Herrick and J. Michael Pendleton   Part VI: Conclusion 18. Decision Making and the Future of Nature: Understanding and Using Predictions Roger Pielke, Jr., Daniel Sarewitz and Radford Byerly Jr.   Appendix: Biographical Sketches   To Order: ISLAND PRESS 24850 East Lane P.O. Box 7 Covelo, CA. 95428 Tel: 1-800-828-1302 / Fax: 707-983-6414 Outside of the U.S. and Canada, call: 707-983-6432 Monday - Friday, 8:00 a.m. - 5:00 p.m. Pacific Coast Time Book information and order form available in Adobe Acrobat .pdf format. (Download Adobe Acrobat Reader software.)