Prediction

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Table of Contents

Introduction: Death, Taxes, and Environmental Policy
Daniel Sarewitz, Roger A. Pielke, Jr., and Radford Byerly, Jr.

Part I: Prediction as a Problem

1. Prediction in Science and Policy
   Daniel Sarewitz and Roger A. Pielke, Jr.
2. Why Predict? Historical Perspectives on Prediction in Earth Science
   Naomi Oreskes
3. Uncertainty, Judgment, and Error in Prediction
   Thomas R. Stewart

Part II: Disasters Waiting to Happen: Predicting Natural Hazards

4. Short-Term Weather Prediction: An Orchestra in Need of a Conductor
   William H. Hooke and Roger Pielke, Jr.
5. Flood Prediction: Immersed in the Quagmire of National Flood Mitigation Strategy
   Stanley A. Changnon
6. The Asteroid/Comet Impact Hazard: Homo Sapiens as Dinosaur?
   Clark R. Chapman
7. Predicting Earthquakes: Science, Pseudoscience, and Public Policy Paradox
   Joanne M. Nigg

Part III: Foreordained Conclusions: Prediction and Politics

8. What You Know Can Hurt You: Predicting the Behavior of Nourished Beaches
   Orrin H. Pilkey
9. Is This Number to Your Liking? Water Quality Predictions in Mining Impact Studies
   Robert E. Moran
10. From Tin Roof to Torn Wet Blanket: Predicting and Observing Groundwater Movement at a Proposed Nuclear Waste Site
    Daniel Metlay

Part IV: Cascades of Uncertainty: Prediction and Policy

11. Oil and Gas Resource Appraisal: Diminishing Reserves, Increasing Supplies
    Donald L. Gautier
12. Predictive Modeling of Acid Rain: Obstacles to Generating Useful Information
    Charles Herrick
13. Prediction and Other Approaches to Climate Change Policy
    Steve Rayner

Part V: Prediction in Perspective

14. Alternatives to Prediction
    Ronald D. Brunner
15. Prediction in Society
    Dale Jamieson
16. Prediction in Characteristic Times
    Radford Byerly, Jr.
17. A Decision Framework for Prediction in Environmental Policy
    Charles Herrick and J. Michael Pendleton

Part VI: Conclusion

18. Decision Making and the Future of Nature: Understanding and Using Predictions
    Roger A Pielke, Jr., Daniel Sarewitz, and Radford Byerly, Jr.