Hurricanes and Global Warming

Updated February 24, 2006
This page is designed to evolve according to user interests. If you'd like to suggest a question to add please email pielke@colorado.edu. Frequently Asked Questions References and Background Materials Other Resources

Frequently Asked Questions

1. How are hurricanes affected by global warming?
There are some different opinions among scientists who study hurricanes about the influence of historical emissions of greenhouse gases on the behavior of tropical cyclones, or as they are called in the Atlantic, hurricanes. Some think that the effect is not discernible, while others believe that they have seen a large effect.

2. What does the peer-reviewed literature say?
There is much less evidence of a debate when one looks to the peer-reviewed literature than if one actually asks different scientists their opinions on the matter. One reason for this is that much of the debate about hurricanes and global warming has to do with what different scientists expect future research to reveal. Research on hurricanes and climate is constantly underway and new studies should be expected every so often.

3. So what should we expect in coming years?
Among just about all scientists there is a strong consensus that the Atlantic basin is likely to see a decade or more of generally active seasons and that the period 1970-1994 is likely to be unrepresentative of future activity.

References and Background Materials

The Center's SPARC project launched a new email list-serv in 2006 to share materials about our research related to hurricanes and their economic impacts. If you wish to be added to the mailing list and receive future materials, click here.

Related Center Peer-Reviewed Publications

Pielke, Jr., R. A., 2005. Are there trends in hurricane destruction? Nature, Vol. 438, December, pp. E11. Brief comment on K. Emanuel's "Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years", Nature, Vol. 436, pp. 686-688. Response by K. Emanuel on page 3 Emanuel replies, Nature, Vol. 438, December, pp. E13.

Pielke, Jr., R. A., C. Landsea, M. Mayfield, J. Laver and R. Pasch, 2005. Hurricanes and global warming, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 86:1571-1575.

Pielke, Jr., R. A. and D. Sarewitz, 2005. Bringing Society back into the Climate Debate, Population and Environment, Volume 26, Number 3, pp. 255-268.

Pielke, Jr., R. A., R.A. Klein, and D. Sarewitz, 2000. Turning the Big Knob: Energy Policy as a Means to Reduce Weather Impacts, Energy and Environment, Vol. 11, No. 3, 255-276.

Center Perspectives and Recent Blog Entries

Pielke, Jr., R.A., S. Agrawala, L. Bouwer, I. Burton, S. Changnon, M. Glantz, W. Hooke, R. Klein, K. Kunkel, D. Mileti, D. Sarewitz, E. Thompkins, N. Stehr, and H. von Storch, 2005.Clarifying the Attribution of Recent Disaster Losses: A Response to Epstein and McCarthy, Bulletin of American Meteorological Society, Volume 86 (10), pp. 1481-1483. Reply by P.R. Epstein and J.J. McCarthy.

Pielke, Jr., R.A. and D. Sarewitz, 2005. Managing the next disaster, Los Angeles Times, September 23.

April 2006
April 14: Are We Seeing the End of Hurricane Insurability?

February 2006
February 21: Consensus Statement on Hurricanes and Global Warming

November 2005
November 9: Avoiding the Painfully Obvious
November 8: The Abdication of Oversight
November 4: Presentation on Hurricanes and Global Warming
Note: The presentation can be downloaded here.

October 2005
October 25: Ideology, Public Opinion, Hurricanes and Global Warming
October 3: Another Misattribution, Climate Scientists Silent

September 2005
September 29: Stehr and von Storch on Climate Policy
September 23: Op-ed in the LA Times
September 22: Correcting Pat Michaels
September 21: On Burying the Lead
September 16: Kerr on Hurricanes and Climate Change
September 13: Of Blinders and Innumeracy
September 12: Some Thoughtful Perspectives
September 12: Kristof on Hurricanes
September 8: Manufactured Controversy: Comments on Today's Chronicle Article
September 7: Correction of Misquote in AP Story
September 3: Correction of Errors in Fortune Story

August 2005
August 31: Unsolicited Media Advice
August 30: Tough Questions on Hurricanes and Global Warming?
August 29: Final Version of "Hurricanes and Global Warming" for BAMS
August 22: Reader Request: Comments on Michaels and Gray

Other Resources

Georgia Institute of Technology, School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Hurricane Research.

Webster, P.J., G.J. Holland, J.A. Curry, and H.R. Chang, 2005. Changes in Tropical Cyclone Number, Duration, and Intensity in a Warming Environment, Science, Vol. 309, No. 5742, pp. 1844 - 1846.

Emanuel, K., 2005. Anthropogenic Effects on Tropical Cyclone Activity.

Emanuel, K., 2005. Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years, Nature, Vol. 436, pp. 686-688.

Landsea, C., 2005. Hurricane Research Division: Frequently Asked Questions, NOAA.

Gray, B., 2005. The Tropical Meteorology Project, Colorado State University.

Knutson, T., 2005. Hurricanes and Global Warming, NOAA, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory.

2001 IPCC on tropical cyclones