Comments on: Can Hurricane Activity Be Predicted Out to Five Years With Skill? http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=4808 Wed, 29 Jul 2009 22:36:51 -0600 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.1 hourly 1 By: Hans Erren http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=4808&cpage=1#comment-11466 Hans Erren Fri, 26 Dec 2008 14:06:47 +0000 http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=4808#comment-11466 Thanks, I added your comment to my blog (with a link to prometheus). Thanks, I added your comment to my blog (with a link to prometheus).

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By: Roger Pielke, Jr. http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=4808&cpage=1#comment-11461 Roger Pielke, Jr. Wed, 24 Dec 2008 00:01:45 +0000 http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=4808#comment-11461 Hans- We held a workshop in partnership with Munich Re on exactly this graph that Pier Vellinga has shown. The purpose of the workshop was to explain why we see the increasing damage trend due to storms and floods. You can see the report here: http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/sparc/research/projects/extreme_events/munich_workshop/workshop_report.html It was cited in the IPCC AR4. Some key findings relevant to your blog post include: "8. Analyses of long-term records of disaster losses indicate that societal change and economic development are the principal factors responsible for the documented increasing losses to date. 11. Because of issues related to data quality, the stochastic nature of extreme event impacts, length of time series, and various societal factors present in the disaster loss record, it is still not possible to determine the portion of the increase in damages that might be attributed to climate change due to GHG emissions 13. In the near future the quantitative link (attribution) of trends in storm and flood losses to climate changes related to GHG emissions is unlikely to be answered unequivocally." http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/sparc/research/projects/extreme_events/munich_workshop/executive_summary.pdf Hans-

We held a workshop in partnership with Munich Re on exactly this graph that Pier Vellinga has shown. The purpose of the workshop was to explain why we see the increasing damage trend due to storms and floods.

You can see the report here:

http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/sparc/research/projects/extreme_events/munich_workshop/workshop_report.html

It was cited in the IPCC AR4. Some key findings relevant to your blog post include:

“8. Analyses of long-term records of disaster losses indicate that societal change and economic development are the principal factors responsible for the documented increasing losses to date.

11. Because of issues related to data quality, the stochastic nature of extreme event impacts, length of time series, and various societal factors present in the disaster loss record, it is still not possible to determine the portion of the increase in damages that might be attributed to climate change due to GHG emissions

13. In the near future the quantitative link (attribution) of trends in storm and flood losses to climate changes related to GHG emissions is unlikely to be answered unequivocally.”

http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/sparc/research/projects/extreme_events/munich_workshop/executive_summary.pdf

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By: Hans Erren http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=4808&cpage=1#comment-11459 Hans Erren Tue, 23 Dec 2008 20:50:36 +0000 http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=4808#comment-11459 Slightly off topic: Roger, I used graph 4c of Pielke et al, Normalized Hurricane Damage in the United States:1900-2005 in my blog to rebut the alarmistic damage graph of Pier Vellinga in his inaugural adress as climate professor at Wageningen University. Is that the most appropriate graph or do you have a better suggestion? see http://www.volkskrantblog.nl/bericht/237382 Slightly off topic:
Roger, I used graph 4c of Pielke et al, Normalized Hurricane Damage in the United States:1900-2005 in my blog to rebut the alarmistic damage graph of Pier Vellinga in his inaugural adress as climate professor at Wageningen University.

Is that the most appropriate graph or do you have a better suggestion?

see http://www.volkskrantblog.nl/bericht/237382

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