Comments on: Cost-Benefit Analysis of the Spy Satellite Shootdown Attempt http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=4339 Wed, 29 Jul 2009 22:36:51 -0600 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.1 hourly 1 By: JoeWalters http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=4339&cpage=1#comment-10702 JoeWalters Thu, 14 Aug 2008 22:37:38 +0000 http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheusreborn/?p=4339#comment-10702 The is an interesting article of some of the issues in the shootdown in the August 2008 IEEE Spectrum (http://spectrum.ieee.org/aug08/6533). An interesting observation, to me, in the article is that the "experts" expected the hydrazine to be liquid at impact. It apparently was frozen solid due to the satellite failure and would have required so much heat to make the state change from solid to liquid that it would have likely been liquid at impact. The article has a higher probability of human injury (1 in 45 to 1 in 25) than used above (1 in 5000), or about a 100 to 200 fold change in cost per life saved. Would be interested in a discussion of that difference...why the difference? The article mentioned that it was much higher probability than had been used in the past due to the full fuel tank due to failure at launch. Regards, Joe The is an interesting article of some of the issues in the shootdown in the August 2008 IEEE Spectrum (http://spectrum.ieee.org/aug08/6533). An interesting observation, to me, in the article is that the “experts” expected the hydrazine to be liquid at impact. It apparently was frozen solid due to the satellite failure and would have required so much heat to make the state change from solid to liquid that it would have likely been liquid at impact.

The article has a higher probability of human injury (1 in 45 to 1 in 25) than used above (1 in 5000), or about a 100 to 200 fold change in cost per life saved. Would be interested in a discussion of that difference…why the difference? The article mentioned that it was much higher probability than had been used in the past due to the full fuel tank due to failure at launch.

Regards,

Joe

]]> By: TokyoTom http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=4339&cpage=1#comment-9533 TokyoTom Mon, 03 Mar 2008 03:29:16 +0000 http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheusreborn/?p=4339#comment-9533 Roger, this obviously irration decision from a public cost-benefit perspective rightly leads you consider other possible motivations. Sending a message to Russia and China would be top of the list, especially as China just did something like this itself. But you might also consider how private interests and public interests frequently diverge in the case of government decisions. No doubt the Navy was happy, some defense contractors are happy, and Republicans and the Bush are happy to make some public display of their potency and ability to defend Americans. A big government is easily manipulated in this kind of way. Regards, Tom Roger, this obviously irration decision from a public cost-benefit perspective rightly leads you consider other possible motivations. Sending a message to Russia and China would be top of the list, especially as China just did something like this itself.

But you might also consider how private interests and public interests frequently diverge in the case of government decisions. No doubt the Navy was happy, some defense contractors are happy, and Republicans and the Bush are happy to make some public display of their potency and ability to defend Americans.

A big government is easily manipulated in this kind of way.

Regards,

Tom

]]> By: kmcolo http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=4339&cpage=1#comment-9532 kmcolo Wed, 20 Feb 2008 12:30:59 +0000 http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheusreborn/?p=4339#comment-9532 There is also the possibility that portions of this new, secrets packed, satellite might survive re-entry and land in, oh... China or Russia perhaps. There is also the possibility that portions of this new, secrets packed, satellite might survive re-entry and land in, oh… China or Russia perhaps.

]]> By: kmcolo http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=4339&cpage=1#comment-9531 kmcolo Wed, 20 Feb 2008 12:25:46 +0000 http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheusreborn/?p=4339#comment-9531 There is also the possibility that portions of this new, secrets packed, satellite might survive re-entry and land in, oh... China or Russia perhaps. There is also the possibility that portions of this new, secrets packed, satellite might survive re-entry and land in, oh… China or Russia perhaps.

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