http://www.keyman.uk.com

This strikes me as shortsighted and ineffective. The big bucks in climate research goes to remote sensing, which is needed to monitor progress and has other uses like weather forecasting and criteria pollutant monitoring. You could take the whole climate science budget, not just the GCMs, and spend it in the energy sector, and it would disappear without a trace. You could probably take the whole NSF science budget and drop it into DOE technology with little effect.

–>On questions measuring actual knowledge about either the science or the policy involved, the public scores very low.

REPLY: This is the case on every issue. See NSF Science and Engineering inidcators.

–>Although a strong majority of Americans believe that global warming is real, that temperatures are rising, and that the release of carbon dioxide is a cause, the public remains relatively uncertain about whether the majority of scientists agree on the matter.

REPLY: I disagree. The Gallup polls show a majority belive that there is a consensus. But really, so what? regardless of their vies on what scientists think, the public is overwhelming conviced of the reality of global warming and has been for many years.

–>Only about a third of the public believe that global warming will pose a threat within their lifetime.

REPLY: Are you suggesting that the view of this third incorrect?

–>When asked specifically about a range of environmental issues, global warming remains at the lower end of worries, especially in comparison to water-related pollution.

REPLY: Indeed. What does this say about policy action? I would say it tells us that the climate issue needs to be broken down into parts or as kevin says “turn our energies to usable, useful science for a very uncertain future.”

–In terms of specific policy proposals, public support appears strongest for regulations that require emission limits on industry and automobiles and that would mandate the production of hybrid cars. But few Americans support increased taxes on gasoline and electricity.

REPLY: Hey, just like Europe, India, and China!!

–>Our POQ study does not break down poll trends by partisanship. However, in this case, across polls, we still have a “two Americas” of public perceptions on the issue. According to Gallup and Pew polling, over the past year, Democrats have become more concerned and supportive of policy action while Republicans remain relatively unmoved both in terms of the certainty of the science and the urgency of the issue.

REPLY: Yes, and you’ll find partisan differences on a whole bunch of issues from stem cells to Iraq to abhortion to guns.

Hi Matt- Congrats on the paper it is a very useful compilation! A few reactions to your interpretation of the polls.

You have not demonstrated any influence of “skeptics” on opinion. You overlook your Table 12 which shows using a consistent polling question an increase in those who think most experts think that global warming is happening from 46% to 65%.

Either way, it is not clear that the public’s views of scientific agree are at all related to (a) their views on global warming, or (b) support for policy action. Your Tables 9, 11 shows that 75-85% of the public think climate change is real. Further, at the end of your paper are a slew of tables showing strong public support for action, including Kyoto.

Finally, you assert that “As long as the public remains confused about where the experts stand, public support for policy action is likely to be weak and volatile.”

Yet the data in your paper show exactly the opposite! The most remarkable thing about the data to my eye is how consistent it is over a decade and how little volatility there actually is.

On 2. you write, “As long as global warming continues to lag as a relative concern for Americans, few policymakers will feel an incentive to spend political capital in support of meaningful policy action.”

The real lesson to take from this is that the public has always valued the economy, crime, education, and the war higher than global warming. And they likely always will. Do you really think than people in places that have, say, signed on to and are meeting their Kyoto commitments, rank climate higher than economy, crime, war, etc.? Here in the UK the answer is “No”! How do you explain that action in the US requires that climate be a top public priority, but action in th UK does not?

The challenge is not to agitate people about global warming such that they view it as a crisis, but instead to design policies that are compatible with public values. Trying to take a century-scale issue and tun it into the most important issue in everyone’s eyes is asking too much, and a recipe for asking science to do more that it is capable of.

See the new book by Norhaus/Shellenberger on this last point.

You see the challenge of climate change as a communication problem. I don’t. I see it as a challenge of designing policies to go with the grain of people’s values, rather than against that grain.

Thanks!

Posted by: Roger Pielke, Jr. | August 30, 2007 3:57 AM

On global warming, to paraphrase Kevin, the public isn’t there and that remains both a major communication problem and a major policy problem.

Until policymakers see global warming showing up in polling across party lines as a top priority, many will lack the incentive to devote the necessary political capital to passing meaningful policy solutions.

A few key conclusions highlight from our paper:

–>On questions measuring actual knowledge about either the science or the policy involved, the public scores very low.

–>Although a strong majority of Americans believe that global warming is real, that temperatures are rising, and that the release of carbon dioxide is a cause, the public remains relatively uncertain about whether the majority of scientists agree on the matter.

–>Only about a third of the public believe that global warming will pose a threat within their lifetime.

–>When asked specifically about a range of environmental issues, global warming remains at the lower end of worries, especially in comparison to water-related pollution.

–In terms of specific policy proposals, public support appears strongest for regulations that require emission limits on industry and automobiles and that would mandate the production of hybrid cars. But few Americans support increased taxes on gasoline and electricity.

–>Our POQ study does not break down poll trends by partisanship. However, in this case, across polls, we still have a “two Americas” of public perceptions on the issue. According to Gallup and Pew polling, over the past year, Democrats have become more concerned and supportive of policy action while Republicans remain relatively unmoved both in terms of the certainty of the science and the urgency of the issue.