Being Accurate is Easy, Right?
October 19th, 2005Posted by: Roger Pielke, Jr.
The amazing 2005 hurricane season continues with Wilma bearing down on Florida, currently as a S/S category 5 storm. I noticed an interesting difference in presentation between the AP and the NHC discussions of Wilma’s intensity. Here is what the AP reported:
“Hurricane Wilma doesn’t stop making history: It is the strongest, most intense Atlantic hurricane in terms of barometric pressure and the most rapidly strengthening on record. A hurricane hunter plane flying through the Category 5 storm’s eye found a minimum central pressure of 882 millibars, National Hurricane Center forecasters said Wednesday.”
Here is what the NHC said,
“AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE MEASURED 168 KNOTS AT 700 MB AND ESTIMATED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 884 MB EXTRAPOLATED FROM 700MB. UNOFFICIALLY…THE METEOROLOGIST ON BOARD THE PLANE RELAYED AN EXTRAPOLATED 881 MB PRESSURE AND MEASURED 884 MB WITH A DROPSONDE. THIS IS ALL IN ASSOCIATION WITH A VERY SMALL EYE THAT HAS BEEN OSCILLATING BETWEEN 2 AND 4 N MI DURING EYE PENETRATIONS. THIS IS PROBABLY THE LOWEST MINIMUM PRESSURE EVER OBSERVED IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN AND IS FOLLOWED BY THE 888 MB MINIMUM PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE GILBERT IN 1988. HOWEVER…ONE MUST BE VERY CAREFUL BEFORE IT IS DECLARED A RECORD MINIMUM PRESSURE UNTIL A FULL AND DETAILED CALIBRATION OF THE INSTRUMENTS AND CALCULATIONS IS PERFORMED. SO PLEASE DO NOT JUMP INTO CONCLUSIONS YET…BE PATIENT.”
Is it really too much to expect the AP to use the word “unofficially”?
October 19th, 2005 at 10:52 am
>>> Is it really too much to expect the AP to use the word “unofficially”? <<<
You are assuming that the AP’s budget allows for hiring and retention of quality reportage.
Best,
D
October 19th, 2005 at 11:02 am
C’mon RP, you’re nitpicking!! The AP is a business and their business is selling news. Clearly the report said LOWEST EVER!!! The news-reading public doesn’t want caveats, they want extremes and records. I didn’t read far enough to see any HOWEVER…’s. Did you? Is it really the responsibility of the AP to get the story _exactly_ right if the news-reading public will settle for not-completely-right-but-sounds-really-good? If you want accurate reporting you’re going to have to go to The Onion.
[This was all in jest, by the way.]
October 19th, 2005 at 1:01 pm
You’re using the 5:00AM report to make your point, but the AP article was published at 9:00AM, approximately an hour after the 8:00AM NHS report which is much less cautious, stating:
“BASED ON DROPSONDE AND FLIGHT-LEVEL DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE PLANE JUST RETURNING FROM ITS MISSION IN WILMA…THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 882 MB…26.05 INCHES. THIS IS THE LOWEST PRESSURE ON RECORD FOR A HURRICANE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN.”
October 19th, 2005 at 4:14 pm
Yes, I am picking nits. But it is a fair picking, no?
October 19th, 2005 at 8:15 pm
Rodger, HSG posted
“BASED ON DROPSONDE AND FLIGHT-LEVEL DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE PLANE JUST RETURNING FROM ITS MISSION IN WILMA…THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 882 MB…26.05 INCHES. THIS IS THE LOWEST PRESSURE ON RECORD FOR A HURRICANE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN.”
at 1:01 PM. You posted at 4:14. If HSG is accurately quoting the NHS, you are simply wrong, and AP was accurate.
Don’t you understand?
October 20th, 2005 at 7:27 am
Regarding “lowest pressure on record”, keep in mind that we watch hurricanes much closer today thanks to satellite coverage. Hurricane flights only started at the end of WW II and I bet in the 1940 and 1950s it was more of a hit or miss afair than it is today w/o satelitte assistance. Before WW II, the only pressure records came from ships and they were trying their darndest to stay away from hurricanes or from sfc stations (usually when the hurricane is making landfall, which we know may diminish the intensity). So if we had modern day coverage for the last 100 years, I would be even more impressed with Wilma’s lowest pressure.
October 20th, 2005 at 7:41 am
I meant to say “satellite assistance”, not “satelitte assistance”. This is what happens when there isn’t a built-in spelling checker – you actually have to remember how to spell.
October 22nd, 2005 at 9:37 am
So, what’s the arguement? How the news is reported? Who reported it first? This is the lowest “RECORDED” -doesn’t that mean we can assume there have been other non-recorded low events?