Earlier this week NASA released its plans for the future of the U.S. human spaceflight program. The New York Times has a good series of articles on the plans and reactions to it (here and here). Were I a discerning budget examiner or congressional staffer with a knowledge of the history of the space program, I’d ask NASA why we should believe any of the following statements (borrowed from the Times reporting):

* “Michael D. Griffin, the agency’s new administrator, detailed a $104 billion plan that he said would get astronauts to the Moon by 2018.”

Does NASA have any credibility on budget or schedule projections? History suggests that cost estimates are overly optimistic and shortfalls are used as a justification to secure budget increases. As one former congressional staffer has commented, “NASA cost overruns represent full employment in some congressional districts.”

* “Dr. Griffin said that after adjusting for inflation, the program would cost just 55 percent of what it cost to put a dozen men on the lunar surface from 1969 to 1972.”

The spin begins. An actual accounting of Apollo costs (see Table 14.4 here in PDF) indicates that the program actually costs (in 2004 dollars) between $105 to $125 billion. NASA is already either playing fast and loose with the budget numbers or is ignorant of its own budget history. Neither option is particularly encouraging.

* “The new craft, called the crew exploration vehicle, would perch the astronauts’ capsule above the rockets that power it into space, rather than alongside them as with the shuttle. NASA officials said it would be 10 times as safe as the shuttle, with a projected failure rate of 1 in 2,000, as opposed to 1 in 220 for the shuttle.”

Deja vu. No launch vehicle has ever demonstrated such a success rate. Unrealistic estimates of reliability contributed to the experiences of the Shuttle program. Further, if NASA really believes these numbers, what justification can there be for continuing to fly the Shuttle?

Space policy should be guided by a firm appreciation of history. We have a lot of hard-earned and valuable experience. Here are a few places to start (PDF and PDF).