Comments on: Climate and Societal Factors in Future Tropical Cyclone Damages in the ABI Reports http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=3804 Wed, 29 Jul 2009 22:36:51 -0600 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.1 hourly 1 By: Jim Clarke http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=3804&cpage=1#comment-4248 Jim Clarke Mon, 01 May 2006 02:25:27 +0000 http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheusreborn/?p=3804#comment-4248 MB, My analogy was specific to the problem of hurricanes. As to the impacts of GCC - You seem to speak as if these are known quantities and not hypothetical possibilities based on speculative computer models that have yet to show a skill level much higher than chance! It seems that much of Europes politicians have accepted these speculations as facts and are willing to sacrifice their economies and countrymen for the cause. One day we may see the headline: "Many Europeans freeze to death in fear of slightly warmer temperatures!" My fear is that many will read such a headline and not see any irony in it. MB,

My analogy was specific to the problem of hurricanes.

As to the impacts of GCC – You seem to speak as if these are known quantities and not hypothetical possibilities based on speculative computer models that have yet to show a skill level much higher than chance!

It seems that much of Europes politicians have accepted these speculations as facts and are willing to sacrifice their economies and countrymen for the cause.

One day we may see the headline:

“Many Europeans freeze to death in fear of slightly warmer temperatures!”

My fear is that many will read such a headline and not see any irony in it.

]]> By: mb http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=3804&cpage=1#comment-4247 mb Wed, 26 Apr 2006 21:36:27 +0000 http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheusreborn/?p=3804#comment-4247 Roger, I appreciate that - I was addressing my comments more to Jim's analogy, perhaps misinterpreting it, because it seems to me that given the political situation in the U.S., it's probably worthwhile to make note all of the impacts of GCC, even those in which mitigation efforts are likely to be of relatively minor consequence. Best, MB Roger,
I appreciate that – I was addressing my comments more to Jim’s analogy, perhaps misinterpreting it, because it seems to me that given the political situation in the U.S., it’s probably worthwhile to make note all of the impacts of GCC, even those in which mitigation efforts are likely to be of relatively minor consequence.
Best,
MB

]]> By: Dano http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=3804&cpage=1#comment-4246 Dano Wed, 26 Apr 2006 15:48:44 +0000 http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheusreborn/?p=3804#comment-4246 I agree with Jim's and Roger's point about framing necessary CO2 reductions for single benefits. Reducing CO2 emissions - as Roger has indeed said many times - has multiple, quantifiable benefits. It is a no-brainer. If there's a slightly reduced risk of storm damage, so much the better. CO2, of course, being an indicator of fossil fuel consumption. Best, D I agree with Jim’s and Roger’s point about framing necessary CO2 reductions for single benefits.

Reducing CO2 emissions – as Roger has indeed said many times – has multiple, quantifiable benefits. It is a no-brainer. If there’s a slightly reduced risk of storm damage, so much the better.

CO2, of course, being an indicator of fossil fuel consumption.

Best,

D

]]> By: Roger Pielke Jr. http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=3804&cpage=1#comment-4245 Roger Pielke Jr. Wed, 26 Apr 2006 02:11:52 +0000 http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheusreborn/?p=3804#comment-4245 mb- Thanks for your comments. I've addressed this comment many times. My point is not that climate mitigation does not make sense -- it does. My point is that climate mitigation is not an effective tool of disaster mitigation, and should not be presented as such ... Thanks! mb- Thanks for your comments. I’ve addressed this comment many times. My point is not that climate mitigation does not make sense — it does. My point is that climate mitigation is not an effective tool of disaster mitigation, and should not be presented as such … Thanks!

]]> By: mb http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=3804&cpage=1#comment-4244 mb Wed, 26 Apr 2006 01:58:42 +0000 http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheusreborn/?p=3804#comment-4244 Seems to me that's a bad analogy. First - ameliorative action and vulnerability reduction are not mutually exclusive. More importantly, if the issue of of GCC were simply related to cyclone/hurricane events, you'd have a point. But- potential GCC related impacts on food production, migration, security and biodiversity would remain largely untouched by vulnerability reduction alone. Seems to me that’s a bad analogy. First – ameliorative action and vulnerability reduction are not mutually exclusive. More importantly, if the issue of of GCC were simply related to cyclone/hurricane events, you’d have a point. But- potential GCC related impacts on food production, migration, security and biodiversity would remain largely untouched by vulnerability reduction alone.

]]> By: Jim Clarke http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=3804&cpage=1#comment-4243 Jim Clarke Tue, 25 Apr 2006 20:29:51 +0000 http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheusreborn/?p=3804#comment-4243 Roger, Thank you for setting the record straight on the ABI report. It is absolutely ridicules to call for a reduction in CO2 emissions as a means to reduce the threat of tropical storms! Vulnerability reduction is a much cheaper, efficient and proven way to reduce the tropical storm threat. There is really no comparison! Imagine a fisherman out to sea in his boat to catch as many fish as he can. He has a large net and a system of fishing rods and bait. In the end, he ignores both, dives into the ocean and chases the fish in the hope of catching one bare-handed. Anyone watching would assume that the fisherman has lost his marbles! Those promoting a reduction in CO2 emissions as a way to reduce the threat from tropical storms are like the fisherman diving into the ocean to catch a fish. Choosing the most costly and least effective means to solve a problem is just crazy. One may argue that there are other reasons to reduce CO2 emissions, but the tropical storm threat is not one of them! Roger,

Thank you for setting the record straight on the ABI report.

It is absolutely ridicules to call for a reduction in CO2 emissions as a means to reduce the threat of tropical storms! Vulnerability reduction is a much cheaper, efficient and proven way to reduce the tropical storm threat. There is really no comparison!

Imagine a fisherman out to sea in his boat to catch as many fish as he can. He has a large net and a system of fishing rods and bait. In the end, he ignores both, dives into the ocean and chases the fish in the hope of catching one bare-handed. Anyone watching would assume that the fisherman has lost his marbles!

Those promoting a reduction in CO2 emissions as a way to reduce the threat from tropical storms are like the fisherman diving into the ocean to catch a fish.

Choosing the most costly and least effective means to solve a problem is just crazy. One may argue that there are other reasons to reduce CO2 emissions, but the tropical storm threat is not one of them!

]]> By: Roger Pielke Jr. http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=3804&cpage=1#comment-4242 Roger Pielke Jr. Tue, 25 Apr 2006 12:51:22 +0000 http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheusreborn/?p=3804#comment-4242 Benny- Thanks much for this link. Benny- Thanks much for this link.

]]> By: Benny Peiser http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=3804&cpage=1#comment-4241 Benny Peiser Tue, 25 Apr 2006 10:44:52 +0000 http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheusreborn/?p=3804#comment-4241 Roger I noticed an interesting media report today about the Indian Meteorological Agency's position on climate change and tropical cyclones: "The clamour over climate change the world over notwithstanding, the country's weather agency believes that variation in rain and temperatures over the country being experienced over the years fall within the "natural variability". "We are keeping a watch. We are not denying.... It (the variations) are still under the natural variability," Director General of the India Meteorological Department Dr B Lal told reporters here today. There has been no significant change in terms of temperature and rainfall on year-to-year basis, he said..... "Thus, there is no clear cut signal...We are keeping a watch over temperatures," he said. Lal said there had also been no increase in intensity and frequency of tropical cyclones. Since October 1999, there had not been any super cyclone in the country. Last year there were only five disturbances, of which two became cyclones of marginal value, he said..... http://www.zeenews.com/znnew/articles.asp?aid=290686&ssid=26&sid=ENV It would appear that some of these scientific conclusions are also backed by research into the socio-economic factors in India related to the increase of tropical cyclone damages: http://ams.allenpress.com/amsonline/?request=get-abstract&doi=10.1175%2FBAMS-84-5-635 "Contrary to the common perception that tropical cyclones are on the increase, due perhaps to global warming, studies all over the world show that, although there are decadal variations, there is no definite long-term trend in the frequency or intensity of tropical cyclones over the period of about a century for which data are available. There is, nevertheless, a sharp increase in the socio-economic impact of tropical cyclones in the form of increasing property damage. An analysis of cyclones affecting the state of Andhra Pradesh, India, in the last quarter century by normalizing cyclone damage for economic and demographic factors shows that here, as elsewhere, the greater vulnerability is attributable mainly to these factors and not to any increase in frequency or intensity of cyclones. The decrease of alertness in disaster management that often occurs after a few years' lull in occurrence of cyclones, known as the “fading memory syndrome,” also contributes to increases in loss of lives and property damage. This distinction between meteorological and socio-economic causes for the increased impact is important to avoid a tendency for political and administrative decision makers to blame natural causes. They have to take these realities into account, not just in developing a vigilant disaster management system, but in land-use planning, development of coastal districts, and insurance measures." What a refreshing soberness compared to the unjustified alarm in some green circles. Roger

I noticed an interesting media report today about the Indian Meteorological Agency’s position on climate change and tropical cyclones:

“The clamour over climate change the world over notwithstanding, the country’s weather agency believes that variation in rain and temperatures over the country being experienced over the years fall within the “natural variability”.

“We are keeping a watch. We are not denying…. It (the variations) are still under the natural variability,” Director General of the India Meteorological Department Dr B Lal told reporters here today.

There has been no significant change in terms of temperature and rainfall on year-to-year basis, he said…..

“Thus, there is no clear cut signal…We are keeping a watch over temperatures,” he said.

Lal said there had also been no increase in intensity and frequency of tropical cyclones. Since October 1999, there had not been any super cyclone in the country.

Last year there were only five disturbances, of which two became cyclones of marginal value, he said…..
http://www.zeenews.com/znnew/articles.asp?aid=290686&ssid=26&sid=ENV

It would appear that some of these scientific conclusions are also backed by research into the socio-economic factors in India related to the increase of tropical cyclone damages: http://ams.allenpress.com/amsonline/?request=get-abstract&doi=10.1175%2FBAMS-84-5-635

“Contrary to the common perception that tropical cyclones are on the increase, due perhaps to global warming, studies all over the world show that, although there are decadal variations, there is no definite long-term trend in the frequency or intensity of tropical cyclones over the period of about a century for which data are available. There is, nevertheless, a sharp increase in the socio-economic impact of tropical cyclones in the form of increasing property damage. An analysis of cyclones affecting the state of Andhra Pradesh, India, in the last quarter century by normalizing cyclone damage for economic and demographic factors shows that here, as elsewhere, the greater vulnerability is attributable mainly to these factors and not to any increase in frequency or intensity of cyclones. The decrease of alertness in disaster management that often occurs after a few years’ lull in occurrence of cyclones, known as the “fading memory syndrome,” also contributes to increases in loss of lives and property damage. This distinction between meteorological and socio-economic causes for the increased impact is important to avoid a tendency for political and administrative decision makers to blame natural causes. They have to take these realities into account, not just in developing a vigilant disaster management system, but in land-use planning, development of coastal districts, and insurance measures.”

What a refreshing soberness compared to the unjustified alarm in some green circles.

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