Confronting Disaster Losses
November 2nd, 2007Posted by: Roger Pielke, Jr.
From today’s Science:
L. M. Bouwer, R. P. Crompton, E. Faust, P. Höppe, and R. A. Pielke Jr. 2007. Confronting disaster losses, Science 318, 753.
Here is an excerpt from the Supporting Online Material:
Societal change and economic development are mainly responsible for increasing losses in recent decades, as convincingly shown in analyses of long-term records of losses (S1). After adjusting for societal changes, resulting time series accurately reflect documented trends (or lack thereof) and variability consistent with the observed climatological record of weather events (S1, S5). This implies that the net result of the adjustments has to a significant degree successfully removed the signal of societal change from the loss record. . .
Within the next 20 years projected changes in the intensity and frequency of extreme events—depending on the time scale and hazard—remain uncertain. The most severe effects of human-caused climate change are expected in the second half of the century
(S6). In the immediate future, disaster losses will increase as a result of societal change and economic development, independent of climate change.
We’ll provide the full text as soon as it is posted on our site. Meantime, subscribers to Science can find it here.
UPDATE: Full text here in PDF.
November 4th, 2007 at 4:57 pm
Congratulations on the article. I really wonder whether people will be willing to let go of their notion of preventing disasters. I think many people will still regard a focus on risk reduction or adaptation as “giving up” the fight.
January 2nd, 2008 at 7:40 am
New anti-hurricane technology from Slovakia
WEATHER MACHINE
PCT/SK2006/000003 (WO/2006/085830) A METHOD OF AND A DEVICE FOR THE REDUCTION OF TROPICAL CYCLONES DESTRUCTIVE FORCE
documents – http://www.wipo.int/pctdb/en/wo.jsp?wo=2006085830
Antihurricane Technology Fund
http://www.ahtfund.org
Fund support development, testing and propaganda of technologies that are capable of avoiding spontaneous catastrophes or decrese them in size, fundraising.
Hurricane active technology prevention
ENERGY FROM HURRICANE VERSUS HURRICANE
January 2nd, 2008 at 7:41 am
New anti-hurricane technology from Slovakia
WEATHER MACHINE
PCT/SK2006/000003 (WO/2006/085830) A METHOD OF AND A DEVICE FOR THE REDUCTION OF TROPICAL CYCLONES DESTRUCTIVE FORCE
documents – http://www.wipo.int/pctdb/en/wo.jsp?wo=2006085830
Antihurricane Technology Fund
http://www.ahtfund.org
Fund support development, testing and propaganda of technologies that are capable of avoiding spontaneous catastrophes or decrese them in size, fundraising.
Hurricane active technology prevention
ENERGY FROM HURRICANE VERSUS HURRICANE