Comments on: Carbon Dioxide Levels Rising Fast, Scientists Surprised, We Aren’t http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=4596 Wed, 29 Jul 2009 22:36:51 -0600 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.1 hourly 1 By: Hans Erren http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=4596&cpage=1#comment-11012 Hans Erren Sun, 28 Sep 2008 19:56:52 +0000 http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=4596#comment-11012 There are several factors in this newsitem: Total Emissions are larger than worst case SRES scenarios, mostly because SRES has 1 GtC less CO2 from landuse change http://www.grida.no/CLIMATE/IPCC_TAR/WG1/521.htm http://lgmacweb.env.uea.ac.uk/lequere/co2/carbon_budget.htm Observed CO2 is below worst case SRES. Observed satellite temperature and oceanic heat content is plateauing. Which implies that the effect of emissions on temperature is not as powerful as worst case models suggest. Pielke Sr. even confirmed that there is no heating in the pipeline either. So what can be expected? If the monetary crisis grows worldwide, there definetely will be a dip in emissions, as happened also before. There are several factors in this newsitem:
Total Emissions are larger than worst case SRES scenarios, mostly because SRES has 1 GtC less CO2 from landuse change
http://www.grida.no/CLIMATE/IPCC_TAR/WG1/521.htm
http://lgmacweb.env.uea.ac.uk/lequere/co2/carbon_budget.htm

Observed CO2 is below worst case SRES.
Observed satellite temperature and oceanic heat content is plateauing.

Which implies that the effect of emissions on temperature is not as powerful as worst case models suggest. Pielke Sr. even confirmed that there is no heating in the pipeline either. So what can be expected? If the monetary crisis grows worldwide, there definetely will be a dip in emissions, as happened also before.

]]> By: PaddikJ http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=4596&cpage=1#comment-11009 PaddikJ Sun, 28 Sep 2008 04:28:33 +0000 http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=4596#comment-11009 How does one pollute a global warming gas (or any gas, for that matter, unless maybe you're referring to that mixture of gases commonly referred to as "the atmosphere")? But, after getting past the AP's mangled reportage, more substantive questions arise, such as what is meant, exactly, by CO2 stabilization? Are we to aim for some magical concentration that will provide a "stable" climate into the forseeable future? If so, it would be the first time in Earth's history. And what if the planet doesn't cooperate in this enterprise - do we have some technology waiting in the wings that will force it into submission? If so, maybe we should stabilize CO2 concentrations at pre-industrial levels and have the mild, stable climate that humanity enjoyed during the Little Ice Age. That would be pleasant. At least we'd then be able to test the climate-CO2 hypothesis. How does one pollute a global warming gas (or any gas, for that matter, unless maybe you’re referring to that mixture of gases commonly referred to as “the atmosphere”)?

But, after getting past the AP’s mangled reportage, more substantive questions arise, such as what is meant, exactly, by CO2 stabilization? Are we to aim for some magical concentration that will provide a “stable” climate into the forseeable future? If so, it would be the first time in Earth’s history. And what if the planet doesn’t cooperate in this enterprise – do we have some technology waiting in the wings that will force it into submission? If so, maybe we should stabilize CO2 concentrations at pre-industrial levels and have the mild, stable climate that humanity enjoyed during the Little Ice Age. That would be pleasant.

At least we’d then be able to test the climate-CO2 hypothesis.

]]> By: Celebrity Paycut - Encouraging celebrities all over the world to save us from global warming by taking a paycut. http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=4596&cpage=1#comment-11005 Celebrity Paycut - Encouraging celebrities all over the world to save us from global warming by taking a paycut. Fri, 26 Sep 2008 17:51:01 +0000 http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=4596#comment-11005 [...] By Breakthrough Senior Fellow Roger Pielke, jr., cross posted from Prometheus [...] [...] By Breakthrough Senior Fellow Roger Pielke, jr., cross posted from Prometheus [...]

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