Comments on: Climate Change Equals Thermonuclear War http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=5391 Wed, 29 Jul 2009 22:36:51 -0600 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.1 hourly 1 By: kevin http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=5391&cpage=1#comment-14057 kevin Thu, 04 Jun 2009 03:26:22 +0000 http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=5391#comment-14057 Mark and the rest of the peanut gallery, I will rest on this: "The whole point of science is to be able to predict future events" really? wow. ok. you win. Dean (#10), agreed, but it is a matter of time scale perspective. Geologically, it's the same amount of time. From the human perspective, yes, it is hard to make it comparable. Mark and the rest of the peanut gallery, I will rest on this: “The whole point of science is to be able to predict future events”

really? wow. ok. you win.

Dean (#10), agreed, but it is a matter of time scale perspective. Geologically, it’s the same amount of time. From the human perspective, yes, it is hard to make it comparable.

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By: jae http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=5391&cpage=1#comment-14051 jae Thu, 04 Jun 2009 02:08:12 +0000 http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=5391#comment-14051 Dean observes: "You can’t debate this with people who deny the basic science," LOL. Can you enlighten us on just what is the "basic science" you are referring to. Please try to put up something more specific than "the consensus is..." pap. "However, we can look at history and see that many human cultures and civilizations have declined and even disappeared due to climate change." LOL, again. If you read your history books, it has ALWAYS been A DECLINING TEMPERATURE THAT HAS CAUSED "CIVILIZATIONS THAT HAVE DECLINED." If you have some facts counter to this, we would love to see them. Dean observes:

“You can’t debate this with people who deny the basic science,”

LOL. Can you enlighten us on just what is the “basic science” you are referring to. Please try to put up something more specific than “the consensus is…” pap.

“However, we can look at history and see that many human cultures and civilizations have declined and even disappeared due to climate change.”

LOL, again. If you read your history books, it has ALWAYS been A DECLINING TEMPERATURE THAT HAS CAUSED “CIVILIZATIONS THAT HAVE DECLINED.” If you have some facts counter to this, we would love to see them.

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By: dean http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=5391&cpage=1#comment-14050 dean Wed, 03 Jun 2009 23:05:10 +0000 http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=5391#comment-14050 Kevin - You can't debate this with people who deny the basic science, but the problem is that nuclear war is a very sudden thing. And while climate change in our case may be a lot faster than interglacial warming between ice ages, it is still slow on the scale of human lives. Many AGW activists wonder what the "Pearl Harbor moment" is will be that will genuinely motivate our society. People are well known to deny almost any disaster that affects their lives - it can't happen to them, after all. However, we can look at history and see that many human cultures and civilizations have declined and even disappeared due to climate change. Some of it was even human-caused, but regional, not global. Deforestation, for example, is well known to cause regional climate change in certain circumstances. Roger Pielke _SR_ recently blogged on that in his ongoing effort to convince people that AGW is more about land use than CO2. The Maya and the people of the Colorado Plateau may well have suffered a dieoff comparable of a nuclear war due to climate. But some people (who accept the science but don't fear the impacts) have an article of faith that our civilization can do better. That ain't science, it is the very religion they accuse us of. That we are fundamentally different from civilizations of the past. Clearly we are different in many ways, but only time will tell if we are different in ways that count in this case. Kevin – You can’t debate this with people who deny the basic science, but the problem is that nuclear war is a very sudden thing. And while climate change in our case may be a lot faster than interglacial warming between ice ages, it is still slow on the scale of human lives. Many AGW activists wonder what the “Pearl Harbor moment” is will be that will genuinely motivate our society. People are well known to deny almost any disaster that affects their lives – it can’t happen to them, after all.

However, we can look at history and see that many human cultures and civilizations have declined and even disappeared due to climate change. Some of it was even human-caused, but regional, not global. Deforestation, for example, is well known to cause regional climate change in certain circumstances. Roger Pielke _SR_ recently blogged on that in his ongoing effort to convince people that AGW is more about land use than CO2.

The Maya and the people of the Colorado Plateau may well have suffered a dieoff comparable of a nuclear war due to climate. But some people (who accept the science but don’t fear the impacts) have an article of faith that our civilization can do better. That ain’t science, it is the very religion they accuse us of. That we are fundamentally different from civilizations of the past. Clearly we are different in many ways, but only time will tell if we are different in ways that count in this case.

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By: jae http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=5391&cpage=1#comment-14042 jae Wed, 03 Jun 2009 18:15:25 +0000 http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=5391#comment-14042 Kevin: I agree completely with Mark and I cannot help but pile on here, when you observe: "Considering all the likely hidden positive and negative feedbacks inherent to the climate system that we haven’t even characterized yet, I’m willing to concede their characterization of risk here." How on God's green Earth can you concede a risk, when there is ABSOLUTELY not a shred of empirical evidence that indicate any risk? There has not been a significant rise in temperature for over 12 years, and even the "theory" is highly debatable. Are you sufficiently confident in computer models and the opinions of famous climate scientists whose very livelihoods rely on "belief" in such risks to agree with destroying our standard of living and causing millions more to starve/freeze to death? Kevin: I agree completely with Mark and I cannot help but pile on here, when you observe:

“Considering all the likely hidden positive and negative feedbacks inherent to the climate system that we haven’t even characterized yet, I’m willing to concede their characterization of risk here.”

How on God’s green Earth can you concede a risk, when there is ABSOLUTELY not a shred of empirical evidence that indicate any risk? There has not been a significant rise in temperature for over 12 years, and even the “theory” is highly debatable. Are you sufficiently confident in computer models and the opinions of famous climate scientists whose very livelihoods rely on “belief” in such risks to agree with destroying our standard of living and causing millions more to starve/freeze to death?

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By: Mark Bahner http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=5391&cpage=1#comment-14040 Mark Bahner Wed, 03 Jun 2009 16:37:18 +0000 http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=5391#comment-14040 "Some scientists legitimately see the threat of AGW in Armageddon clothes." Who are the scientists, and how are they "legimately" seeing "the threat of AGW in Armageddon clothes"? For example, if you're talking about James Lovelock (of "few breeding pairs (of humans) at the poles" fame), I would not consider his views to be "legitimate" science. "None of us have any idea whether AGW will be a pussycat in 50-100 years or a total game changer, but I think all of us would agree that both extremes are within the set of possibilities." Well, "pussycat" and "game-changer" are not scientific terms, but if "none of us have any idea" about AGW in 50-100 years, then none of us are practicing science. The whole point of science is to be able to predict future events (e.g., "the atmospheric CO2 concentration in 2050 will be between 450 and 550 ppm; will result in an average global temperature that's between the present temperature and 2 degrees Celsius warmer than the present temperature"). "...but that’s a strawman distraction from the point that these scientists are driving at: unchecked CO2e into the atmosphere could destroy us just as effectively as thermonuclear war could." Absolute nonsense. The *minimum* number of people killed by a "thermonuclear war" would be tens of millions of people. In contrast, even accepting the WHO estimate of 150,000 people killed annually by global warming (a very scientifically debatable estimate), it would take 67 years to even kill 10,000,000 people. And the difference between property damage caused by "thermonuclear war" and AGW is even more dramatic. (For example, even assuming that Katrina was caused entirely by AGW, the property damage caused by Katrina doesn't even begin to compare with the property damage that would be caused by dropping a thermonuclear weapon on New Orleans.) “Some scientists legitimately see the threat of AGW in Armageddon clothes.”

Who are the scientists, and how are they “legimately” seeing “the threat of AGW in Armageddon clothes”?

For example, if you’re talking about James Lovelock (of “few breeding pairs (of humans) at the poles” fame), I would not consider his views to be “legitimate” science.

“None of us have any idea whether AGW will be a pussycat in 50-100 years or a total game changer, but I think all of us would agree that both extremes are within the set of possibilities.”

Well, “pussycat” and “game-changer” are not scientific terms, but if “none of us have any idea” about AGW in 50-100 years, then none of us are practicing science.

The whole point of science is to be able to predict future events (e.g., “the atmospheric CO2 concentration in 2050 will be between 450 and 550 ppm; will result in an average global temperature that’s between the present temperature and 2 degrees Celsius warmer than the present temperature”).

“…but that’s a strawman distraction from the point that these scientists are driving at: unchecked CO2e into the atmosphere could destroy us just as effectively as thermonuclear war could.”

Absolute nonsense. The *minimum* number of people killed by a “thermonuclear war” would be tens of millions of people. In contrast, even accepting the WHO estimate of 150,000 people killed annually by global warming (a very scientifically debatable estimate), it would take 67 years to even kill 10,000,000 people. And the difference between property damage caused by “thermonuclear war” and AGW is even more dramatic. (For example, even assuming that Katrina was caused entirely by AGW, the property damage caused by Katrina doesn’t even begin to compare with the property damage that would be caused by dropping a thermonuclear weapon on New Orleans.)

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By: kevin http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=5391&cpage=1#comment-14039 kevin Wed, 03 Jun 2009 03:58:44 +0000 http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=5391#comment-14039 Sorry, I don't see the unfortunate leap here. Some scientists legitimately see the threat of AGW in Armageddon clothes. None of us have any idea whether AGW will be a pussycat in 50-100 years or a total game changer, but I think all of us would agree that both extremes are within the set of possibilities. The chance of MAD warfare was (and still is) equally impossible to quantify, but with a similar downside risk on the extreme end. You can try to make the argument that if a nuclear war begins you know pretty well the final outcome (Armageddon), whereas you still don't know very well the outcome of >>500 ppm CO2e, but that's a strawman distraction from the point that these scientists are driving at: unchecked CO2e into the atmosphere could destroy us just as effectively as thermonuclear war could. The key word - used twice - is "could." Considering all the likely hidden positive and negative feedbacks inherent to the climate system that we haven't even characterized yet, I'm willing to concede their characterization of risk here. Sorry, I don’t see the unfortunate leap here. Some scientists legitimately see the threat of AGW in Armageddon clothes. None of us have any idea whether AGW will be a pussycat in 50-100 years or a total game changer, but I think all of us would agree that both extremes are within the set of possibilities. The chance of MAD warfare was (and still is) equally impossible to quantify, but with a similar downside risk on the extreme end. You can try to make the argument that if a nuclear war begins you know pretty well the final outcome (Armageddon), whereas you still don’t know very well the outcome of >>500 ppm CO2e, but that’s a strawman distraction from the point that these scientists are driving at: unchecked CO2e into the atmosphere could destroy us just as effectively as thermonuclear war could. The key word – used twice – is “could.” Considering all the likely hidden positive and negative feedbacks inherent to the climate system that we haven’t even characterized yet, I’m willing to concede their characterization of risk here.

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By: Mark Bahner http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=5391&cpage=1#comment-14038 Mark Bahner Wed, 03 Jun 2009 03:12:21 +0000 http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=5391#comment-14038 Just saw Earth 2100 (in 3 minute segments, which was all I could take before gagging). I see that the New York City barrier that took 30 years to build failed at the first important challenge to it. I told them and told them that a portable barrier was the way to go, but nooooo...they wouldn't listen! So now New York City is deserted. I think Greg House Jr. had the most appropriate quote, on hearing that the fixed permanent barriers failed: "Idiots!" ;-) Just saw Earth 2100 (in 3 minute segments, which was all I could take before gagging).

I see that the New York City barrier that took 30 years to build failed at the first important challenge to it.

I told them and told them that a portable barrier was the way to go, but nooooo…they wouldn’t listen!

So now New York City is deserted. I think Greg House Jr. had the most appropriate quote, on hearing that the fixed permanent barriers failed: “Idiots!”

;-)

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By: BRIANMFLYNN http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=5391&cpage=1#comment-14037 BRIANMFLYNN Tue, 02 Jun 2009 22:07:25 +0000 http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=5391#comment-14037 For those who want a break from the written reports of mass deaths and the equivalency of nuclear Armageddon, watch “Earth 2100” on ABC tonight, 9:00PM EST. Description at: http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/Earth2100/. For those who miss it, the program will likely be repeated – and likely often before the Copenhagen climate change summit. Who will keep the growing list? For those who want a break from the written reports of mass deaths and the equivalency of nuclear Armageddon, watch “Earth 2100” on ABC tonight, 9:00PM EST.
Description at: http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/Earth2100/.
For those who miss it, the program will likely be repeated – and likely often before the Copenhagen climate change summit.
Who will keep the growing list?

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By: Jon Frum http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=5391&cpage=1#comment-14036 Jon Frum Tue, 02 Jun 2009 21:07:36 +0000 http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=5391#comment-14036 If Boston's summer temperatures were increased 3 degrees C, that would turn my neighborhood in to the hell that is Washington D.C. Slightly cooler than Charleston, S.C., and just a bit less than Dodge City, Kansas. A regular nuclear armegeddon, that. Oh, the humanity! If Boston’s summer temperatures were increased 3 degrees C, that would turn my neighborhood in to the hell that is Washington D.C. Slightly cooler than Charleston, S.C., and just a bit less than Dodge City, Kansas.

A regular nuclear armegeddon, that. Oh, the humanity!

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By: jae http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=5391&cpage=1#comment-14031 jae Tue, 02 Jun 2009 17:24:11 +0000 http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=5391#comment-14031 Here's a Nobel Laureate that is wiser (and knows his physics!): http://news.cnet.com/8301-11128_3-10254009-54.html Here’s a Nobel Laureate that is wiser (and knows his physics!):

http://news.cnet.com/8301-11128_3-10254009-54.html

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