Comments on: Here comes the rain, kids. NASA administrator says global warming ain’t no stinking problem. http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=4212 Wed, 29 Jul 2009 22:36:51 -0600 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.1 hourly 1 By: Mico P. http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=4212&cpage=1#comment-9082 Mico P. Mon, 11 Jun 2007 15:58:48 +0000 http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheusreborn/?p=4212#comment-9082 Total agreement to give a HAT TIP to John Fleck, a realy fine journalist. But it seems that he is supporting the use of the the terms "climate change" and "global warming" without distiction, so that I thought to contribute to this question on www.jfleckinkstan.net the other day, as follows: QUOTE OK, the “global cooling” is a quite difficult subject, but reasonable scientific definitions should not be so difficult, when there are many ten thousand trained men and women working full time in meteorological and climate science. At least what we have now is very insufficient, as briefly explained: WEATHER (webdictionary.co.uk): the meteorological conditions: temperature and wind and clouds and precipitation; (Encarta. msn): the state of the atmosphere with regard to temperature, cloudiness, rainfall, wind, and other meteorological conditions. (dictionary.net): The state of the air or atmosphere with respect to heat or cold, wetness or dryness, calm or storm, clearness or cloudiness, or any other meteorological phenomena; meteorological condition of the atmosphere; CLIMATE (en.wikipeada.org): Climate is the average and variations of weather over long periods of time. (en.wikipeada.org), citing IPCC as follows: Climate in a narrow sense is usually defined as the “average weather”, or more rigorously, as the statistical description in terms of the mean and variability of relevant quantities over a period of time ranging from months to thousands or millions of years. The classical period is 30 years, as defined by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). These quantities are most often surface variables such as temperature, precipitation, and wind. Climate in a wider sense is the state, including a statistical description, of the climate system. UNITED NATIONS FRAMEWORK CONVENTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE (FCCC): __Has not any definition on “CLIMATE”, but says that __”CLIMATE CHANGE means the change of climate …”!!!! NOTE: (1) Both terms are layman terms. (2) For scientific work, the referred weather definitions are of little help, as the “meteorological conditions” at a specific time is a “composition” of many dozen, if not hundred parameters. (3) If weather is not properly defined it is hopeless to define climate as average weather. (4) Defining climate as weather statistis, is not very helpful anyhow, as weather-statistics remain weather-statistics. PS: Only recently this site discussed on : May 23rd, 2007 : Global Warming or Climate Change; which shows how important are correct and meaningful definitions: __’global warming’ makes sense, as rising temperatures on a global basis can be explained as “global warming”; while __”climate change’ as introduced by IPCC and FCCC is a hopeless term; because one question must be answered first in a meaningful way: __What is “CLIMATE”??? It is fantastic what James Hansen and his colleagues have achieved over the last 20 years without demonstrating that they are able to define in scientific terms what they are talking about. Indeed an unbelievable success! A unique miracle!! Lasting for ever? UNQUOTE Total agreement to give a HAT TIP to John Fleck, a realy fine journalist. But it seems that he is supporting the use of the the terms “climate change” and “global warming” without distiction, so that I thought to contribute to this question on http://www.jfleckinkstan.net the other day, as follows:
QUOTE
OK, the “global cooling” is a quite difficult subject, but reasonable scientific definitions should not be so difficult, when there are many ten thousand trained men and women working full time in meteorological and climate science. At least what we have now is very insufficient, as briefly explained:

WEATHER
(webdictionary.co.uk): the meteorological conditions: temperature and wind and clouds and precipitation;

(Encarta. msn): the state of the atmosphere with regard to temperature, cloudiness, rainfall, wind, and other meteorological conditions.

(dictionary.net): The state of the air or atmosphere with respect to heat or cold, wetness or dryness, calm or storm, clearness or cloudiness, or any other meteorological phenomena; meteorological condition of the atmosphere;

CLIMATE
(en.wikipeada.org): Climate is the average and variations of weather over long periods of time.

(en.wikipeada.org), citing IPCC as follows: Climate in a narrow sense is usually defined as the “average weather”, or more rigorously, as the statistical description in terms of the mean and variability of relevant quantities over a period of time ranging from months to thousands or millions of years. The classical period is 30 years, as defined by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). These quantities are most often surface variables such as temperature, precipitation, and wind. Climate in a wider sense is the state, including a statistical description, of the climate system.

UNITED NATIONS FRAMEWORK CONVENTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE (FCCC):
__Has not any definition on “CLIMATE”, but says that
__”CLIMATE CHANGE means the change of climate …”!!!!

NOTE:
(1) Both terms are layman terms.
(2) For scientific work, the referred weather definitions are of little help, as the “meteorological conditions” at a specific time is a “composition” of many dozen, if not hundred parameters.
(3) If weather is not properly defined it is hopeless to define climate as average weather.
(4) Defining climate as weather statistis, is not very helpful anyhow, as weather-statistics remain weather-statistics.

PS: Only recently this site discussed on : May 23rd, 2007 : Global Warming or Climate Change; which shows how important are correct and meaningful definitions:
__’global warming’ makes sense, as rising temperatures on a global basis can be explained as “global warming”; while
__”climate change’ as introduced by IPCC and FCCC is a hopeless term; because one question must be answered first in a meaningful way:
__What is “CLIMATE”???
It is fantastic what James Hansen and his colleagues have achieved over the last 20 years without demonstrating that they are able to define in scientific terms what they are talking about.
Indeed an unbelievable success! A unique miracle!! Lasting for ever?
UNQUOTE

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By: Steve Hemphill http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=4212&cpage=1#comment-9081 Steve Hemphill Sat, 09 Jun 2007 15:18:12 +0000 http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheusreborn/?p=4212#comment-9081 It's amazing how much row a clear and honest statement can bring about in opposing religious circles. It's absolutely true we don't know that GW from CO2 will be a problem larger than others we will need to address, and limited resources could deem it relatively inconsequential - particularly since GW seems to have stopped in its tracks over the last few years (despite howls it's "increasing"). Lots of people of different religions are at each other's throats now, and AGW is just the newest religion. It's certainly possible it's important, but model robustness about feedbacks certainly isn't substantial. The high priests of AGW - Hansen chief among them - seem to think they have crystal balls - typical of religous leaders. Maybe, just maybe, they don't? Certainly a lot more research is needed - which would include more studies of reality vs. computer games - oops - models. The big picture here is that the instrument record started at the coldest period of the last 8,000 years. The last 8,000 years would be the time of, what? Oh yeah, civilization... Thermodynamics should be prerequisite to any "climate" class in any university. Of course the High Priests of AGW would never go for that - Education is the cure. It’s amazing how much row a clear and honest statement can bring about in opposing religious circles. It’s absolutely true we don’t know that GW from CO2 will be a problem larger than others we will need to address, and limited resources could deem it relatively inconsequential – particularly since GW seems to have stopped in its tracks over the last few years (despite howls it’s “increasing”). Lots of people of different religions are at each other’s throats now, and AGW is just the newest religion. It’s certainly possible it’s important, but model robustness about feedbacks certainly isn’t substantial. The high priests of AGW – Hansen chief among them – seem to think they have crystal balls – typical of religous leaders. Maybe, just maybe, they don’t?

Certainly a lot more research is needed – which would include more studies of reality vs. computer games – oops – models.

The big picture here is that the instrument record started at the coldest period of the last 8,000 years. The last 8,000 years would be the time of, what? Oh yeah, civilization…

Thermodynamics should be prerequisite to any “climate” class in any university. Of course the High Priests of AGW would never go for that – Education is the cure.

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By: Tibor Kiss http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=4212&cpage=1#comment-9080 Tibor Kiss Sat, 09 Jun 2007 08:18:14 +0000 http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheusreborn/?p=4212#comment-9080 “The best time to plant a tree is 20 years ago. The second best is now.” Chinese proverb. “The best time to plant a tree is 20 years ago. The second best is now.” Chinese proverb.

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By: MIchael Tobis http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=4212&cpage=1#comment-9079 MIchael Tobis Thu, 07 Jun 2007 05:38:09 +0000 http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheusreborn/?p=4212#comment-9079 Thanks for making the point about DOE responsibility. I have some related discussion on my blog. See: http://initforthegold.blogspot.com/2007/06/nasa-doe-and-myth-of-neutrality.html Thanks for making the point about DOE responsibility. I have some related discussion on my blog. See:

http://initforthegold.blogspot.com/2007/06/nasa-doe-and-myth-of-neutrality.html

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By: Mark Bahner http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=4212&cpage=1#comment-9078 Mark Bahner Tue, 05 Jun 2007 16:50:41 +0000 http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheusreborn/?p=4212#comment-9078 "It would be interesting to compare the accuracy of predictions of discount rates to predictions of temperature trends." Some comments: 1) "Discount rates" are what people choose when evaluating different courses for fiscal action. Since they are a choice, there is no single correct answer for what the discount rate should be (or should have been). 2) Conversely, gross world product (GWP) is a measurable quantity. (Although it can be measured in several different ways, such as purchasing power parity, PPP, or monetary exchange rate, MER.) Therefore, GWP can truly be predicted, and the predictions checked for accuracy. 3) The IPCC has not made ANY predictions of either world temperature or GWP. Only people who are either ignorant or dishonest think the IPCC has made any predictions of either variable: http://blogs.nature.com/climatefeedback/2007/06/predictions_of_climate.html 4) Tom Wigley and Sarah Raper made predictions of average world surface temperature to 2100, in Science magazine, based on the IPCC Third Assessment Report. Their predicted temperatures are very likely too high: http://markbahner.typepad.com/random_thoughts/2007/01/responses_to_dr.html 5) The IPCC TAR reported economic literature projections on GWP to 2100. Those literature projections are very likely much (much!) too low. I predict they will be too low by approximately a factor of 100 by the year 2100: http://markbahner.typepad.com/random_thoughts/2004/10/3rd_thoughts_on.html http://markbahner.typepad.com/random_thoughts/2004/01/why_social_secu.html “It would be interesting to compare the accuracy of predictions of discount rates to predictions of temperature trends.”

Some comments:

1) “Discount rates” are what people choose when evaluating different courses for fiscal action. Since they are a choice, there is no single correct answer for what the discount rate should be (or should have been).

2) Conversely, gross world product (GWP) is a measurable quantity. (Although it can be measured in several different ways, such as purchasing power parity, PPP, or monetary exchange rate, MER.) Therefore, GWP can truly be predicted, and the predictions checked for accuracy.

3) The IPCC has not made ANY predictions of either world temperature or GWP. Only people who are either ignorant or dishonest think the IPCC has made any predictions of either variable:

http://blogs.nature.com/climatefeedback/2007/06/predictions_of_climate.html

4) Tom Wigley and Sarah Raper made predictions of average world surface temperature to 2100, in Science magazine, based on the IPCC Third Assessment Report. Their predicted temperatures are very likely too high:

http://markbahner.typepad.com/random_thoughts/2007/01/responses_to_dr.html

5) The IPCC TAR reported economic literature projections on GWP to 2100. Those literature projections are very likely much (much!) too low. I predict they will be too low by approximately a factor of 100 by the year 2100:

http://markbahner.typepad.com/random_thoughts/2004/10/3rd_thoughts_on.html

http://markbahner.typepad.com/random_thoughts/2004/01/why_social_secu.html

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By: Luke Lea http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=4212&cpage=1#comment-9077 Luke Lea Mon, 04 Jun 2007 16:00:29 +0000 http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheusreborn/?p=4212#comment-9077 I am a Bjorn Lomborg-style skeptic, and found the latest IPPC report (not the summaries!)full of interesting facts, the historical overview especially. It's now online. Still waiting for the group II report on adaptation. Hope it is as clearly and frankly written as group I's on the science. I am a Bjorn Lomborg-style skeptic, and found the latest IPPC report (not the summaries!)full of interesting facts, the historical overview especially. It’s now online. Still waiting for the group II report on adaptation. Hope it is as clearly and frankly written as group I’s on the science.

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By: Jonathan Gilligan http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=4212&cpage=1#comment-9076 Jonathan Gilligan Mon, 04 Jun 2007 07:15:49 +0000 http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheusreborn/?p=4212#comment-9076 "I think it is ironic that so many posters here will call AGW skeptics 'deniers' if they are unwilling to accept the 'expert consensus of peer-reviewed climate scientists', but then feel free to completely disagree with the 'expert consensus of peer-reviewed economists' about the cost/benefit of near-term mitigation." Conversely, I find it fascinating how many people seem to have much greater faith in model predictions of what the world economy will do in the next century than in model predictions of what the climate will do over the same period. It would be interesting to compare the accuracy of predictions of discount rates to predictions of temperature trends. “I think it is ironic that so many posters here will call AGW skeptics ‘deniers’ if they are unwilling to accept the ‘expert consensus of peer-reviewed climate scientists’, but then feel free to completely disagree with the ‘expert consensus of peer-reviewed economists’ about the cost/benefit of near-term mitigation.”

Conversely, I find it fascinating how many people seem to have much greater faith in model predictions of what the world economy will do in the next century than in model predictions of what the climate will do over the same period.

It would be interesting to compare the accuracy of predictions of discount rates to predictions of temperature trends.

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By: winston http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=4212&cpage=1#comment-9075 winston Mon, 04 Jun 2007 06:32:48 +0000 http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheusreborn/?p=4212#comment-9075 Half of all the delusional people in the world have "self-confidence" in the making of their "obviously correct pronouncements" but Lubos reckons that it's what makes for wisdom in a NASA political appointee. Amazing the strides the Bush administration has taken toward lowering the bar of what passes with some for "wisdom". A few more years and the ability to tie your own shoelaces in the morning will see you proclaimed a seer. Half of all the delusional people in the world have “self-confidence” in the making of their “obviously correct pronouncements” but Lubos reckons that it’s what makes for wisdom in a NASA political appointee.

Amazing the strides the Bush administration has taken toward lowering the bar of what passes with some for “wisdom”. A few more years and the ability to tie your own shoelaces in the morning will see you proclaimed a seer.

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By: Lab Lemming http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=4212&cpage=1#comment-9074 Lab Lemming Mon, 04 Jun 2007 00:40:34 +0000 http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheusreborn/?p=4212#comment-9074 This argument maks no sense. Assuming there exists an ideal climate, then no matter what that climate is, we need to technology to get there and then stabilize. A prerequisite to changing climate in a conrolled manner is the ability to prevent accidental climate change, which is what we are experiencing today. Secondly, to date nobody expecting a richer world under a new climactic regime has stepped up to cover the economic losses of those who will be disadvantaged. This argument maks no sense.

Assuming there exists an ideal climate, then no matter what that climate is, we need to technology to get there and then stabilize. A prerequisite to changing climate in a conrolled manner is the ability to prevent accidental climate change, which is what we are experiencing today.

Secondly, to date nobody expecting a richer world under a new climactic regime has stepped up to cover the economic losses of those who will be disadvantaged.

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By: Steve Reynolds http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=4212&cpage=1#comment-9073 Steve Reynolds Sat, 02 Jun 2007 22:59:58 +0000 http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheusreborn/?p=4212#comment-9073 I think it is ironic that so many posters here will call AGW skeptics 'deniers' if they are unwilling to accept the 'expert consensus of peer-reviewed climate scientists', but then feel free to completely disagree with the 'expert consensus of peer-reviewed economists' about the cost/benefit of near-term mitigation. Should these cost/benefit skeptics be called cost/benefit deniers? I think it is ironic that so many posters here will call AGW skeptics ‘deniers’ if they are unwilling to accept the ‘expert consensus of peer-reviewed climate scientists’, but then feel free to completely disagree with the ‘expert consensus of peer-reviewed economists’ about the cost/benefit of near-term mitigation.

Should these cost/benefit skeptics be called cost/benefit deniers?

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