Comments on: Hurricanes, Catastrophe Models, and Global Warming http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=3904 Wed, 29 Jul 2009 22:36:51 -0600 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.1 hourly 1 By: Roger Pielke, Jr. http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=3904&cpage=1#comment-5372 Roger Pielke, Jr. Wed, 09 Aug 2006 13:16:16 +0000 http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheusreborn/?p=3904#comment-5372 Jim- Thanks much! (For readers - Jim is a professor at FSU and was a participant in the RMS expert elicitation mentioned in the post.) Have a look at Jim's hurricane climate website here: http://garnet.acns.fsu.edu/~jelsner/www/ Jim- Thanks much!

(For readers – Jim is a professor at FSU and was a participant in the RMS expert elicitation mentioned in the post.)

Have a look at Jim’s hurricane climate website here: http://garnet.acns.fsu.edu/~jelsner/www/

]]> By: Jim Elsner http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=3904&cpage=1#comment-5371 Jim Elsner Wed, 09 Aug 2006 01:22:21 +0000 http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheusreborn/?p=3904#comment-5371 Roger, A multiseason model of Atlantic hurricane activity was published in the scientific literature in 1998. An extended range (6 mo) model of US hurricane activity has recently published in GRL. Any opinions I give to the insurance industry are based on results from models and analyzes available to the public (http://garnet.fsu.edu/~jelsner/www under Research). Best, Jim Roger,
A multiseason model of Atlantic hurricane activity was published in the scientific literature in 1998. An extended range (6 mo) model of US hurricane activity has recently published in GRL. Any opinions I give to the insurance industry are based on results from models and analyzes available to the public (http://garnet.fsu.edu/~jelsner/www under Research).
Best,
Jim

]]> By: Roger Pielke, Jr. http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=3904&cpage=1#comment-5370 Roger Pielke, Jr. Tue, 08 Aug 2006 02:37:03 +0000 http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheusreborn/?p=3904#comment-5370 Patrick- Thanks for your comment. Not long ago at a workshop I was on a panel with a participant in the expert elicitation, and the sponsor (which was interesting to say the least). So I'm pretty comfortable that I have some sense what was communicated and how it was received. See: http://iri.columbia.edu/outreach/meeting/TropicalCyclones/agenda.html Thanks! Patrick- Thanks for your comment. Not long ago at a workshop I was on a panel with a participant in the expert elicitation, and the sponsor (which was interesting to say the least). So I’m pretty comfortable that I have some sense what was communicated and how it was received.

See:

http://iri.columbia.edu/outreach/meeting/TropicalCyclones/agenda.html

Thanks!

]]> By: Patrick Kennedy http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=3904&cpage=1#comment-5369 Patrick Kennedy Tue, 08 Aug 2006 02:29:15 +0000 http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheusreborn/?p=3904#comment-5369 "Telling the rest of us what they told the insurance industry, in the form of peer-reviewed, scientific, short-term predictions, would be good in a number of ways. " It seems to me you are jumping to conclusions about what the scientists told the insurance industry. It is not fair to make a leap from the quote of the expert at the Wharton school to impying the scientists have gone beyond the pale in the advice they gave to the insurance industry. “Telling the rest of us what they told the insurance industry, in the form of peer-reviewed, scientific, short-term predictions, would be good in a number of ways. ”

It seems to me you are jumping to conclusions about what the scientists told the insurance industry. It is not fair to make a leap from the quote of the expert at the Wharton school to impying the scientists have gone beyond the pale in the advice they gave to the insurance industry.

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