Comments on: Off by 6 Orders of Magnitude http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=3833 Wed, 29 Jul 2009 22:36:51 -0600 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.1 hourly 1 By: Roger Pielke Jr. http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=3833&cpage=1#comment-4716 Roger Pielke Jr. Tue, 23 May 2006 19:52:59 +0000 http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheusreborn/?p=3833#comment-4716 Steve- Thanks. Greg and I have been in constant email contact on this, and his comments in the ABC article have been the subject of a lengthy exchange on the TS list-serv the past 24 hours (on damage functions as well as several other subjects). Given that my post helped to correct a major error by ABC on Greg's comments, which he was unaware of, I think that this shows the value of a blog discussion providing an immediate critique of a media story. And BTW, despite the error, which happens to all of us from time-to-time of course, kudos to ABC for their quick action to correct the mistake on their WWW site. FYI, we will soon be publishing data on damage functions as related to different hurricane intensity levels. Thanks. Steve-

Thanks. Greg and I have been in constant email contact on this, and his comments in the ABC article have been the subject of a lengthy exchange on the TS list-serv the past 24 hours (on damage functions as well as several other subjects).

Given that my post helped to correct a major error by ABC on Greg’s comments, which he was unaware of, I think that this shows the value of a blog discussion providing an immediate critique of a media story.

And BTW, despite the error, which happens to all of us from time-to-time of course, kudos to ABC for their quick action to correct the mistake on their WWW site.

FYI, we will soon be publishing data on damage functions as related to different hurricane intensity levels.

Thanks.

]]> By: Steve Bloom http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=3833&cpage=1#comment-4715 Steve Bloom Tue, 23 May 2006 19:44:46 +0000 http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheusreborn/?p=3833#comment-4715 My comment from yesterday, lost apparently because of a snafu with the shift to Typekey, was to the effect that a phone call to Greg Holland before putting up this post would have been the polite thing to do. My comment from yesterday, lost apparently because of a snafu with the shift to Typekey, was to the effect that a phone call to Greg Holland before putting up this post would have been the polite thing to do.

]]> By: Roger Pielke, Jr. http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=3833&cpage=1#comment-4714 Roger Pielke, Jr. Tue, 23 May 2006 14:07:40 +0000 http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheusreborn/?p=3833#comment-4714 Further, and perhaps final, update: Greg writes me to note that ABC News has revised the news story to remove the quote altogether: http://abcnews.go.com/GMA/Science/story?id=1986862&page=1 Further, and perhaps final, update:

Greg writes me to note that ABC News has revised the news story to remove the quote altogether:

http://abcnews.go.com/GMA/Science/story?id=1986862&page=1

]]> By: Roger Pielke, Jr. http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=3833&cpage=1#comment-4713 Roger Pielke, Jr. Tue, 23 May 2006 13:04:04 +0000 http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheusreborn/?p=3833#comment-4713 Further details -- Greg says that there is a longer video to be aired in the future with his quotes not present in the shorter version. I accept that ABC misquoted him. Still, I suggested that he correct the numbers. A doubling of wind speeds will lead to an increase in damage of about 4 to 8 times, not 10, and certainly not 20 times the financial impacts. Further details — Greg says that there is a longer video to be aired in the future with his quotes not present in the shorter version. I accept that ABC misquoted him.

Still, I suggested that he correct the numbers. A doubling of wind speeds will lead to an increase in damage of about 4 to 8 times, not 10, and certainly not 20 times the financial impacts.

]]> By: Roger Pielke, Jr. http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=3833&cpage=1#comment-4712 Roger Pielke, Jr. Tue, 23 May 2006 12:40:27 +0000 http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheusreborn/?p=3833#comment-4712 Greg Holland writes to a list-serv that he was misquoted by ABC: "If you view the original video, you will see that I said a doubling of the winds leads to a 10 times increase in damage....I have written to the ABC to have this corrected." Here is the original video: http://abcnews.go.com/Video/playerIndex?id=1989535 Readers/viewers can evaluate for themselves. Greg Holland writes to a list-serv that he was misquoted by ABC:

“If you view the original video, you will see that I said a doubling of the winds leads to a 10 times increase in damage….I have written to the ABC to have this corrected.”

Here is the original video:

http://abcnews.go.com/Video/playerIndex?id=1989535

Readers/viewers can evaluate for themselves.

]]> By: Steve Lyons http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=3833&cpage=1#comment-4711 Steve Lyons Tue, 23 May 2006 12:10:14 +0000 http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheusreborn/?p=3833#comment-4711 I would have to agree with Dr. Pielke. What is likely also more important to note is that most structures are build to "possibly" withstand 100-120 mph winds, but very few "homes" can withstand 160 mph CAT 5 winds. I have been in a wind tunnel at 160 mph and cannot imagine many homes standing up to sustained winds this fast, not to mention higher gusts atop these sustained winds. And this is the lowest of CAT 5 wind speeds. I do not think it necessary to add another category, the unlimited upper bound to CAT 5 already covers the strongest TC's, which are (fortunately) extremely rare at landfall! I would have to agree with Dr. Pielke. What is likely also more important to note is that most structures are build to “possibly” withstand 100-120 mph winds, but very few “homes” can withstand 160 mph CAT 5 winds. I have been in a wind tunnel at 160 mph and cannot imagine many homes standing up to sustained winds this fast, not to mention higher gusts atop these sustained winds. And this is the lowest of CAT 5 wind speeds. I do not think it necessary to add another category, the unlimited upper bound to CAT 5 already covers the strongest TC’s, which are (fortunately) extremely rare at landfall!

]]>