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October 05, 2006The One Percent DoctrinePosted to Author: Pielke Jr., R. | Climate Change | Risk & Uncertainty This report from the BBC on the latest international climate negotiations: One delegate told me he thought the pace of political ambition on emissions was so slow that we had a 1,000-1 chance of avoiding dangerous climate change. So when is it time to re-open for negotiation FCCC Article 2? For those wanting a bit more background on this cryptic post, please see this paper in PDF. Posted on October 5, 2006 04:17 PMCommentsI also discussed this issue here: http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheus/archives/climate_change/000915back_to_square_one.html Posted by: Roger Pielke, Jr. Roger, obviously an international treay such as the FCCC cannot be easily renegotiated, but certainly there are more important issues, such as the conditions under which the US is willing to undertake any binding obligations to reduce GHG emissions? Why do you suggest renegotiating the focus of the treaty when the Administration is dedicated to denial that anything should be done at all? I agree that politicians should understand that a significant degree of warming is simply now no longer escapable, but that does not mean that all focus should flow to adapatation and the costs of trying to avoid the future harm that will arise if GHG emissions continue to increase. Posted by: TokyoTom at October 5, 2006 11:27 PM TokyoTom- Thanks. You ask, "Why do you suggest renegotiating the focus of the treaty when the Administration is dedicated to denial that anything should be done at all?" You have answered your own questions: To agree upon "the conditions under which the US is willing to undertake any binding obligations to reduce GHG emissions." And it is not just the US of course. Policy cannot proceed effectively without some sense of a goal to be reached. An goal that is impossible or irrelevant is not a good recipie for action, as the climate issue shows all too well. You have determined that a means is needed -- reducing CO2 -- good. Now for this means to be put in place requires in my view some sense of the ends to shich it serves, ideally with a politicl consensus reached on those ends. Yes it is difficult, but in my view absolutely necessary. Thanks! Posted by: Roger Pielke, Jr. Roger, I guess I really fail to understand what you are suggesting. When the US is ready to accept GHG reduction or other serious obligations, it will commence negotiations with others as to the terms under which it will accept such obligations. Before then, other major emitters can make proposals to the Bush administration, but it hardly makes sense to start redrafting the FCCC or Kyoto Protocol until there is a deal ready to be put to paper - at which time Article 2 of the FCC can be tweaked if the parties wish. Posted by: TokyoTom at October 7, 2006 09:17 AM "stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system" Which level is dangerous? Posted by: Hans Erren at October 9, 2006 04:26 AM |
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