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Now I know that Nature has totally lost it! :^)

Nice puff piece. Are they making nice for some reason?

D

Congratulations, you were painted as Jesus Christ and His father. ;-)

Congrats on the appearence. I blogged it, of course.

I don't understand "neither father nor son thinks that predicting global average climate trends is possible". Do you really believe that? RP Sr has posted an ambiguous comment on my blog, so I don't know whether he supports it or not. Did you say that, or is its Natures inaccurate paraphrase?

Predicting climate trends will be possible after figuring out all the specific biota responses, circulation changes from land use changes, quantify clould influences, black carbon effecxts, etc...

William-

Thanks. Overall I think that the author did a nice job, though that was one of two sentences that I'd quibble with, but I think that most readers would understand. That sentence does not accurately reflect my views, and I don't think my father's either. I chalk it up to a situation of too much subtlety for the available few words, which probably has more to do with the complexity of the issues rather than anything else.

A direct reply to your question:

Of course it is possible to predict global average climate trends. I'm not clear on what is actually implied by saying that it is not possible. I am sure my father would same something with a great deal of subtlety about how _accurate_ prediction in unlikely without considering the full spectrum of first-order effects. And of course a lot more could be said (and has) about climate prediction and its uses.

Also, FYI I co-edited a whole book on "prediction," which includes a chapter by Steve Rayner (now at Oxford) on climate change, and Dan Sarewitz and I have written extensively on this subject. For instance:

Pielke, Jr., R.A., 2003: The role of models in prediction for decision, Chapter 7, pp. 113-137 in C. Canham and W. Lauenroth (eds.), Understanding Ecosystems: The Role of Quantitative Models in Observations, Synthesis, and Prediction, Princeton University Press, Princeton, N.J.
http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/admin/publication_files/2001.12.pdf

Thanks!

Hi Roger, thanks for that reply.