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PUBLICATIONID : | 9377 | PUBLICATIONTYPE : | 1 | TYPE : | Review | TITLE : | Abrupt climate change | ORIG_TITLE : | Abrupt climate change | AUTHOR : | Alley, RB, J Marotzke, WD Nordhaus, JT Overpeck, DM Peteet, RA Pielke, RT Pierrehumbert, PB Rhines, TF Stocker, LD Talley and JM Wallace | FIRST_AUTHOR : | Alley, RB, J Marotzke, WD Nordhaus, JT Overpeck, DM Peteet, RA Pielke, RT Pierrehumbert, | AUTHOR_COUNT : | 1 | ADDRESS : | Penn State Univ, Dept Geosci, University Pk, PA 16802 USA; Penn State Univ, EMS Environm Inst, University Pk, PA 16802 USA; Univ Southampton, Southampton Oceanog Ctr, Southampton SO14 3ZH, Hants, England; Yale Univ, Dept Econ, New Haven, CT 06520 USA; Univ Arizona, Inst Study Planet Earth, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA; Columbia Univ, Lamont Doherty Earth Observ, Palisades, NY 10964 USA; NASA, Goddard Inst Space Studies, New York, NY 10025 USA; Univ Colorado, Ctr Sci & Technol Policy Res, Cooperat Inst Res Environm Sci, Boulder, CO 80309 USA; Univ Chicago, Dept Geophys Sci, Chicago, IL 60637 USA; Univ Washington, Dept Atmospher Sci, Seattle, WA 98195 USA; Univ Washington, Dept Oceanog, Seattle, WA 98195 USA; Univ Bern, Inst Phys, CH-3012 Bern, Switzerland; Univ Calif San Diego, Scripps Inst Oceanog, La Jolla, CA 92093 USA | PUBLISHER : | AMER ASSOC ADVANCEMENT SCIENCE | FIRSTAUTHOREMPLOYER : | 3 | ABBREV_JOURNAL : | Science | BEGINPAGE : | 2005 | ENDPAGE : | 2010 | VOLUME : | 299 | ISSUE : | 5615 | PUBLISH_DATE : | 28-Mar | YEAR : | 2003 | URL : | http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/admin/publication_files/2003.13.pdf | REFEREED : | 1 | RESOURCE : | WOS:000181834200034 | CITATION : | 544 | DEPT : | CSTPR | LAST_UPDATED : | 2017-08-10 21:54:36 | ISSN : | 0036-8075 | IDS : | 660LG | DOI : | 10.1126/science.1081056 | ABSTRACT : | Large, abrupt, and widespread climate changes with major impacts have occurred repeatedly in the past, when the Earth system was forced across thresholds. Although abrupt climate changes can occur for many reasons, it is conceivable that human forcing of climate change is increasing the probability of large, abrupt events. Were such an event to recur, the economic and ecological impacts could be large and potentially serious. Unpredictability exhibited near climate thresholds in simple models shows that some uncertainty will always be associated with projections. In light of these uncertainties, policy-makers should consider expanding research into abrupt climate change, improving monitoring systems, and taking actions designed to enhance the adaptability and resilience of ecosystems and economies. | KEYWORD_PLUS : | THERMOHALINE CIRCULATION; NORTH-ATLANTIC; OCEAN; VARIABILITY; HOLOCENE; EVENT; STABILIZATION; CIVILIZATION; TEMPERATURE; SIMULATION | AREA : | Science & Technology - Other Topics | PUBLICATION : | SCIENCE | PLACE : | WASHINGTON | LANGUAGE : | English | SERIAL : | 9377 | PAGES : | 2005-2010 | APPROVED : | yes | SERIES_VOLUME_NUMERIC : | 1 | ONLINE_PUBLICATION : | no | VERSION : | 1 | FIRST_AUTHOR_ADDRESS : | Alley, RB (reprint author), Penn State Univ, Dept Geosci, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. | AUTHOR_OTHER_FORM : | Alley, RB; Marotzke, J; Nordhaus, WD; Overpeck, JT; Peteet, DM; Pielke, RA; Pierrehumbert, RT; Rhines, PB; Stocker, TF; Talley, LD; Wallace, JM | REFERENCES_NUM : | 63 | REFERENCE : | Alley RB, 2001, PALEOCEANOGRAPHY, V16, P190, DOI 10.1029/2000PA000518; Alley RB, 1997, GEOLOGY, V25, P483, DOI 10.1130/0091-7613(1997)025<0483:HCIAPW>2.3.CO;2; Barber DC, 1999, NATURE, V400, P344, DOI 10.1038/22504; Barlow LK, 1997, HOLOCENE, V7, P489, DOI 10.1177/095968369700700411; Bice K. 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