Decision Models
You can download our decision models, which investigate adaptation to climate change under uncertainty.
You can run the model and change inputs without access to the full software by downloading Analytica Player. (PC download only)
Farm Adaptation Model
The Farm Adapt Model simulates yield, costs, and outputs of a 2,000 acre dryland wheat farm on the U.S. Great Plains, with the goal of modeling the impacts of climate variation, especially extreme events and rapid climate change, and farmer adaptation. Climate change is input via off-sets to the mean of the yield distribution from which the farm draws each year in a 30 year simulation.
Module One (blue) allows you to insert a mean off-set (“Yield shift”) for each year of the run (a negative number depresses yield and a positive number increases mean yield, with the effect of shifting the yield distribution right or left). The distribution is then sampled to calculate the other variables and to drive adaptation. Data for a gradual and rapid worsening of climate, some versions also include extreme drought events, are loaded, so click on “CALC” to see some results. When you click to get results you can then choose whether to view mid-point values, distributions, or percentile bands. Calculations are set for 1,000 Monte Carlo samples so they may take a few seconds.
Module MSD (red) allows you to off-set the mean (“Mean shift”) and the standard deviation (“standard deviation shift”) of the yield distribution. You can simulate a climate that is both shifting and getting noisier. Data for a gradual and rapid worsening of climate, some versions also include extreme drought events, are loaded, so click on “CALC” to see some results. When you click to get results you can then choose whether to view mid-point values, distributions, or percentile bands. You can view the details of the model by clicking on the “Model” node in the center. For more information, contact Bill Travis (william.travis@colorado.edu) or Mary Huisenga (mary.oppold@colorado.edu), Dept. of Geography, University of Colorado at Boulder.
