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"The Other Y2K Problem"Roger A. Pielke, Jr. Happy New Year! We are just about to close the book on the 1900s. But as everyone knows by now, all is not champagne and countdown clocks. The so-called "Y2k problem" associated with two-digit dates in computer codes has been implicated as a vulnerability in systems from electric power to aviation. Fortunately, the issue has received plenty of attention (not to mention hype!) and we are thus assured (www.pub.whitehouse.gov/uri-res/I2R?urn:pdi://oma.eop.gov.us/1999/11/10/8.text.1) that the calendar should turn over with few if any problems in the United States. But there lurks an issue that some have taken to calling "the other Y2K problem" – the maximum in the solar cycle expected to occur next year. The sun is not a constant source of energy like a light bulb. It is in some ways more like a candle in that at times it flickers." Scientists have discovered through observations over hundreds of years that the sun actually changes its behavior over an 11-year "solar cycle." Solar Maximum is the time during the eleven-year solar cycle when the sun is most active. And it is considered to be more of a problem now than ever before because of the rapid proliferation of technologies — like satellites and cell phones – that are potentially vulnerable to solar activity. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories/s317.htm) it is solar activity — solar flares, coronal mass ejections and other solar phenomena (www.sec.noaa.gov/info/glossary.html) – that causes "the stormy weather of space." Space weather can affect the earth at any time, but is most threatening during the Solar Maximum when there is "an increase in the number and intensity of solar events, which can cause impacts on Earth such as electrical power outages, satellite failures, and radio and navigation problems." Fortunately, like the more widely known Y2k problem, there has been significant effort with respect to space weather. Within NOAA, the Space Environment Center (www.sec.noaa.gov) in Boulder, Colorado is an important, but little known organization that focuses explicitly on "space weather." Its mission is "to synthesize and disseminate information about past, present, and future conditions in the space environment for space weather users and private industry vendors . . . to conduct research and develop techniques that improve monitoring and forecasting . . . [and] to advise and educate those who operate systems affected by disturbances in the space environment." NOAA recently issued a standard scale (www.spaceweather.noaa.gov/stories/solarscales.html) for the issuance of warnings about space weather events. Like the more familiar Saffir/Simpson hurricane scale or the earthquake Richter scale, users expect that "NOAA's new space weather scales will significantly aid the space industry in anticipating events, understanding effects, and developing more robust satellite designs and mitigation strategies." While on the one hand it is reassuring that people are addressing the space weather issue, on the other hand there is more work to be done. Little is actually known beyond anecdotes about the economic and other societal impacts of space weather, much less about the use and value of space weather forecasts and warnings. An important linkage between users and producers of space weather information has been made in the creation of a "Customer Focus Group" (www.sec.noaa.gov/AboutSEC/CFG.html) within the Space Environment Center, as well as its User Conferences during its annual "Space Weather Week (sec.noaa.gov/~swc/sww99/)." But no one is actually conducting research on space weather impacts or on decision making in response to those impacts. As frequent readers of the WeatherZine will note, the challenge of understanding impacts and forecast value requires action beyond addressing the need – indeed, a critically important need — to bring together producers and users of space weather information. [See Prediction in the Earth Sciences: Use and Misuse in Policy Making, and Societal Aspects of Weather: Report of the Sixth Prospectus Development Team (uswrp.mmm.ucar.edu/uswrp/PDT/PDT6.html)] And of course the paucity of "user-centered" research is not unique to this issue – the nation's climate and weather forecast systems suffer from similar neglect of these important areas. In the case of space weather the consequences are equally similar: policymakers lack information with which to prioritize funding for space weather versus other demands in a tight federal science budget, many potential users of space weather information do not clearly understand their own vulnerabilities, forecasts are produced with little systematic knowledge of their use, misuse, or value, and some debate whether the federal government should even play a (non-military) role in space weather. And just as in weather and climate, lack of understanding of these issues will likely impede both the progress of science and the usefulness of forecasts and other products to users. With good luck, this "other Y2k" problem will pass as uneventfully as is expected of the original. However, we should also be prepared for potential surprises that might result from our lack of systematic attention to the vulnerabilities associated with space weather and the role of information in becoming more resilient. For more information, see the links at:
— Roger A. Pielke, Jr. Comments? thunder@ucar.edu WeatherZine #19 Home Page
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