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Dear WeatherZine

I cannot resist the temptation to comment on WeatherZine # 25 (The Florida Flip-Flop and Weather Forecasts), which ventures into dangerously troubled waters.

First, the basic problem with U.S. politics is that there is no such thing as independent oversight of the election process at any level. It has been a highly politicized process in the past ("smoke-filled rooms" is a better guide to the process than "Dewey defeats Truman") and there is not the slightest evidence this is going to change. Jimmy Carter noted recently that the Carter Center would not have been able to certify the U.S. elections, and the recent hearings on protests of the Florida procedures were characterized by mea non-culpas. Only if an aggrieved party has enough influence to make uniform voting and campaign procedures a priority for Congress will improvements occur.

From where is that influence to come? The black community was the most upset by the Floridian procedures but, nationally, it voted 9 to 1 in favor of Gore. Bush "won" without them, why should he offer more than gestures in the future? Likewise, the Democrats may – but probably will not – really press for reform when they may be the beneficiaries next time.

Europe, and particularly, Britain, France and the Scandinavian countries, have election processes which are, and are perceived to be, fair and independent. Why is a country that is continually preaching to the rest of the world unable to do something about its own deficiencies?

Secondly, we are constantly told that this is the greatest democracy, yet the proportion of eligible voters that actually vote is the lowest in developed countries. The obsession with long drawn-out campaigns and constant forecasts, however accurate, does not address the real issues. Another example of obsession with style over substance is the strong tendency for more prominence to be given to forecasts of economic data than to the actual data. One sometimes gets the impression that, in economics as well as in politics, one has what the famous economist once referred to as "A towering structure, based on very shaky foundations!" It's not more sophisticated media forecasting that is needed; it's more intellectual and political rigor and independence.

Finally, on the contribution of the meteorological community. At the short end – 5-day forecasts – it is clear accuracy and applicability have improved tremendously over the last two decades. This is much less clear in climate analysis. I'm not suggesting that El Nino forecasting has not improved. What I do think is that the translation of climatic information and the process of obtaining feedback from consumers and integrating that into an iterative analysis is more advanced in some developing countries (e.g., India, Argentina) than here. It seems to me that there is a strong emphasis on a prescriptive approach in the U.S. and it may be that the body of knowledge of how the agricultural (or other) communities react is good enough for that to be the correct approach, but it would be instructive to have some debate on the merits of a prescriptive versus an iterative approach, and assessment of compatibility or otherwise.

– Malise Dick
ekalnay@erols.com

Comments? thunder@ucar.edu

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