## Turning the Big Knob:

An Evaluation of the Use of Energy Policy to Modulate Future Climate Impacts

Roger A. Pielke, Jr.andRoberta KleinEnvironmental and Societal Impacts Group

National Center for Atmospheric Research*

Daniel SarewitzCenter for Science, Policy, and Outcomes

Columbia UniversityMay 22, 2000

Energy and Environment,11255-276*The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.

Table 1Comparison of IPCC SAR methodologies and assumptions for estimating future tropical cyclone-related damage caused by doubling of greenhouse gas emissions.

Study Methodology Assumptions Cline (1992) Projected increase in hurricane intensity times average annual U.S. hurricane damages Hurricane intensity increases 40-50% for a 2.3 – 4.8° C warming

Average annual U.S. hurricane damages are $1.5 billion

50% X $1.5 billion = $750 million additional annual U.S. hurricane damages from doubling of greenhouse gases

Fankhauser (1995) Projected increase in hurricane intensity times 1.5 times average annual worldwide hurricane damages Hurricane intensity increases 28% for a 2.5° C warming

Damages rise at rate of 1.5 with storm intensity

Annual average worldwide hurricane damages of $1.5 billion

28% X 1.5 X $1.5 billion = $630 million additional annual worldwide hurricane damages from doubling of greenhouse gases

Tol (1995) Cost functions are quadratic forms,

f(X) = aX + bX^{2}Damages from enhanced natural disasters assumed to be quadratic in total hurricane increase

Climate change damage cost function for tangible damages from natural hazards for PI is .75, and for PI

^{2}is .25Benchmark hurricane intensity is expected to increase 40- 50% due to warming of 2.5° C

Damage from hurricanes in the U.S. is expected to increase .3 billion in the U.S. and 1.4 billion worldwide for doubling of greenhouse gases

Table 2Four IPCC scenarios for population and per capita GNP growth 2000-2050

(Data from IPCC 1999)^{1}

Scenario 2000-2050 Population (millions) Change (2050/2000) 2000-2050 per capita GNP Change (2050/2000) SRES A1 6000-8704 1.45 5,161-20,830 4.0 SRES A2 6000-11296 1.88 4,295-7,224 1.68 SRES B1 6000-8933 1.49 4,712-12,755 2.71 SRES B2 6000-9367 1.56 4,851-11,690 2.41

- Each of the four SRES scenarios provides population and per capita GNP estimates for the years 1990, 2020, and 2050. This paper assumes year 2000 population to be 6 billion for all four scenarios. Year 2000 per capita GNP for each scenario was calculated by subtracting 1990 per capita GNP from 2020 per capita GNP, dividing by 30 years, then multiplying by 10 years and adding this figure to the 1990 figure. If the year 2000 figure had been interpolated by subtracting 1990 per capita GNP from 2050 per capita GNP, dividing by 60 years and multiplying by 10, then adding this figure to the 1990 figure, year 2000 per capita GNP would have been $6,782 (SRES A1), $4,513 (SRES A2), $5,430 (SRES B1), and $5,258 (SRES B2).

Table 3Estimated annual average worldwide tropical cyclone-related losses based on the four IPCC scenarios from Table 2.

Scenario Normalization Result SRES A1 $10 billion X 1.45 X 4 $58 billion SRES A2 $10 billion X 1.88 X 1.68 $32 billion SRES B1 $10 billion X 1.49 X 2.71 $40 billion SRES B2 $10 billion X 1.56 X 2.41 $38 billion

Table 4IDNDR Expenditures 1990-1999

(Source: Christine V. Schneider, IDNDR Secretariat, Management Support Unit, provided to authors)

Biennium Expenditure (USD) 1990/1991 $ 1,238,926 1992/1993 $ 2,636,483 1994/1995 $ 4,634,219 1996/1997 $ 5,080,404 1998/1999 $ 6,534,000 (budgeted) Total $20,124,032

Table 5UNFCCC Core Budget 1998-1999

(Source: UNFCCC 1999)

Year Total approved budget (USD) 1998 $ 9,645,300 1999 $11,700,700 Total $21,346,000 [ Top of Page ]

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