Project Bibliography

1. General

Armstrong, J.S., 1999. Introduction. In: J.S. Armstrong (ed.), Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners. Norwell, MA: Kluwer Academic Publishers (in press).

Ascher, W., 1981. The forecasting potential of complex models. Policy Sciences, 13, 247-267.

Clemen, R.T., 1990. Making Hard Decisions. Boston, MA: PWS-Kent.

Fischoff, B. 1994. What forecasts (seem to) mean. Int. J. Forecasting, 10, 387-403.

Hammond, K. R., 1996. Human Judgment and Social Policy: Irreducible Uncertainty, Inevitable Error, Unavoidable Injustice. New York: Oxford University Press.

Holling, C. S., 1995. What barriers? What bridges? In: L. H. Gunderson, C. S. Holling, and S. S. Light (eds.), Barriers & Bridges to the Renewal of Ecosystems and Institutions. New York: Columbia University Press, 3-34.

Horgan, J., 1996. The End of Science: Facing the Limits of Knowledge in the Twilight of the Scientific Age. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley Publishing Company.

Kahneman, D., P. Slovic, & A. Tversky (eds.), 1982. Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. New York: Cambridge University Press.

Morgan, M.G., & M. Henrion, 1990. Uncertainty: A Guide to Dealing with Uncertainty in Quantitative Risk and Policy Analysis. New York: Cambridge University Press.

Mumpower, J.L. and T.R. Stewart, 1996. Expert judgment and expert disagreement. Thinking and Reasoning, 2, 191-211.

Murphy, A.H., 1997. Forecast verification. In: R.W. Katz and A.H. Murphy (eds.), Economic Value of Weather and Climate Forecasts. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 19-74.

Murphy, A.H. & H. Dann, 1985. Forecast evaluation. In: A.H. Murphy and R.W. Katz (eds.), Probability, Statistics, and Decision Making in the Atmospheric Sciences. Boulder and London: Westview Press, 379-437.

Nicholls, N., 1999. Cognitive illusions, heuristics, and climate prediction. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 80(7), 1385-1397.

Pielke, R.A. Jr. and R. Byerly, Jr., 1998. Beyond basic and applied. Physics Today (February), 42-46.

Plous, S., 1993. The Psychology of Judgment and Decision Making. New York: McGraw-Hill.

Robinson, J.B., 1982. Backing into the future: On the methodological and institutional biases embedded in energy supply and demand forecasting. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 21, 229-240.

Stewart, T. R. (in press). Improving reliability of judgmental forecasts. In J. S. Armstrong (ed.), Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners. Norwell, MA: Kluwer Academic Publishers.

Stewart, T. R., & C.M. Lusk, 1994. Seven components of judgmental forecasting skill: Implications for research and the improvement of forecasts. Journal of Forecasting, 13, 579-599.

Stewart, T. R., P.J. Roebber, & L.F. Bosart, 1997. The importance of the task in analyzing expert judgment. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 69(3), 205-219.

2. Weather

Murphy, A.H., 1996. The Finley Affair: A signal event in the history of forecast verification. Weather and Forecasting, 8, 281-293.

Murphy, A.H., 1977. The value of climatological, categorical, and probabilistic forecasts in the cost-loss ratio situation. Monthly Weather Review, 105(7), 803-816.

Roebber, P. J., & L.F. Bosart, 1996. The contributions of education and experience to forecast skill. Weather and Forecasting, 11, 21-40.

Stewart, T. R., W.R. Moninger, K.F. Heideman, & P. Reagan-Cirincione, 1992. Effects of improved information on the components of skill in weather forecasting. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 53, 107-134.

3. Floods

Baker, V. R., 1998. Hydrological understanding and societal action. Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 34, 819-825.

Pielke, Jr., R.A., 1999. Who decides? Forecast and responsibilities in the 1997 Red River flood. Applied Behavioral Science Review,7(2), 1-19.

4. Climate Change

Bolin, B., 1994. Next steps for climate change analysis. Nature, 368, 94.

Brown, K. S., 1999. Taking global warming to the people. Science, 283, 1440-1451.

Brunner, R. D., 1996. Policy and global change research. Climatic Change, 32, 121-147.

Brunner, R. D. & R. Klein, 1999. Harvesting experience: A reappraisal of the U.S. Climate Change Action Plan. Policy Sciences, 32 (forthcoming).

Fischoff , B.,1994. What forecasts (seem to) mean. Int. J. Forecasting, 10, 387-403.

Keepin, B., 1986. Review of global energy and carbon dioxide projections. Ann. Rev. Energy, 11, 357-392.

Pielke, R. A. Jr., 1998. Rethinking the role of adaptation in climate policy. Global Environmental Change, 8, 159-170.

Rayner, S. & E.L. Malone, 1997. Zen and the art of climate maintenance. Nature, 390, 332-334.

Ungar, S., 1995. Social scares and global warming: Beyond the Rio Convention. Society & Natural Resources, 8, 443-456.

5. Acid Rain

Roberts, L., 1991. Learning from an acid rain program. Science, 251, 1302-1305.

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