Comments on: Reversing the Irrevsible http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=4910 Wed, 29 Jul 2009 22:36:51 -0600 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.1 hourly 1 By: Mark Bahner http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=4910&cpage=1#comment-11719 Mark Bahner Thu, 29 Jan 2009 19:22:17 +0000 http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=4910#comment-11719 Hi, Another possibility for reducing melting of marine ice shelves (e.g. the West Antarctic Ice Sheet) would be to move sediment/rocks so that they are in a pile at the edge of the ice shelf that is out at sea. This pile or wall would reduce the amount of water that can flow beneath the ice shelf (see the orange and blue arrows): http://www.nsf.gov/pubs/1996/nstc96rp/images/waisbimg.jpg Again, it would probably be another multi-billion-dollar proposition, but it involves no extraordinary new technology. If the world was seriously worried about disintegration of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, and associated sea level rise, it would be worth conducting a detailed engineering/scientific analysis of the possibility of slowing ice melting by reducing the flow of water underneath the ice sheet. Hi,

Another possibility for reducing melting of marine ice shelves (e.g. the West Antarctic Ice Sheet) would be to move sediment/rocks so that they are in a pile at the edge of the ice shelf that is out at sea.

This pile or wall would reduce the amount of water that can flow beneath the ice shelf (see the orange and blue arrows):

http://www.nsf.gov/pubs/1996/nstc96rp/images/waisbimg.jpg

Again, it would probably be another multi-billion-dollar proposition, but it involves no extraordinary new technology. If the world was seriously worried about disintegration of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, and associated sea level rise, it would be worth conducting a detailed engineering/scientific analysis of the possibility of slowing ice melting by reducing the flow of water underneath the ice sheet.

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By: Mark Bahner http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=4910&cpage=1#comment-11709 Mark Bahner Thu, 29 Jan 2009 03:17:28 +0000 http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=4910#comment-11709 "Given a 1000 years a lot of things become technically feasible that would mitigate any predicted rise in sea levels." I can think of several measures to mitigate sea level rise that could be done in this century. They would of course cost many billions of dollars, but so would significant sea level rise: 1) Inject air, or put in essentially tens of thousands of square miles of air mattresses, under the ice sheets that extend out from the land in Antarctica and Greenland. This would significantly reduce the melting rate, because air is an excellent heat insulator, whereas water is an excellent heat conductor. 2) Essentially stuff airbags into the moulins in Greenland and Antarctica. (Moulins are holes in the ice that carry meltwater from the surface of a glacier down to the base of the glacier, thus lubricating the base of the glacier, and speeding its travel.) Instead divert the meltwater in channels across the surface of the glaciers. 3) Trap meltwater running over the surface of glaciers in reservoirs, so that the water will not go into the sea. Then pump the water up upwards in the winter, making snow/ice. 4) Cover large portions of glaciers with tarps in the summer, which can be removed during the winter. Again, all these ideas would be multi-billion-dollar efforts. But there is no extraordinary new technology or technical advance required to employ them. “Given a 1000 years a lot of things become technically feasible that would mitigate any predicted rise in sea levels.”

I can think of several measures to mitigate sea level rise that could be done in this century. They would of course cost many billions of dollars, but so would significant sea level rise:

1) Inject air, or put in essentially tens of thousands of square miles of air mattresses, under the ice sheets that extend out from the land in Antarctica and Greenland. This would significantly reduce the melting rate, because air is an excellent heat insulator, whereas water is an excellent heat conductor.

2) Essentially stuff airbags into the moulins in Greenland and Antarctica. (Moulins are holes in the ice that carry meltwater from the surface of a glacier down to the base of the glacier, thus lubricating the base of the glacier, and speeding its travel.) Instead divert the meltwater in channels across the surface of the glaciers.

3) Trap meltwater running over the surface of glaciers in reservoirs, so that the water will not go into the sea. Then pump the water up upwards in the winter, making snow/ice.

4) Cover large portions of glaciers with tarps in the summer, which can be removed during the winter.

Again, all these ideas would be multi-billion-dollar efforts. But there is no extraordinary new technology or technical advance required to employ them.

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By: Hans Erren http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=4910&cpage=1#comment-11707 Hans Erren Wed, 28 Jan 2009 22:20:53 +0000 http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=4910#comment-11707 Peter Dietze concluded that the bulk "half life" of Co2 is 38 years, this means any pulse of co2 in excess of 290 ppm is halved in 38 years (no matter the amplitude). In the pessimistic ISAM and Bern CO2 cycle models there is speculation about a future CO2 uptake saturation. Dietze argues that there is sufficient fresh upwelling water. http://www.john-daly.com/dietze/cmodcalc.htm Compare effect on the a1b emission scenario http://home.casema.nl/errenwijlens/co2/co2a1bfick.gif Peter Dietze concluded that the bulk “half life” of Co2 is 38 years, this means any pulse of co2 in excess of 290 ppm is halved in 38 years (no matter the amplitude). In the pessimistic ISAM and Bern CO2 cycle models there is speculation about a future CO2 uptake saturation. Dietze argues that there is sufficient fresh upwelling water.

http://www.john-daly.com/dietze/cmodcalc.htm
Compare effect on the a1b emission scenario
http://home.casema.nl/errenwijlens/co2/co2a1bfick.gif

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By: PaddikJ http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=4910&cpage=1#comment-11702 PaddikJ Wed, 28 Jan 2009 08:07:28 +0000 http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=4910#comment-11702 Drat; the second link didn't take. Here it is spelled out: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FOLkze-9GcI&feature=channel Drat; the second link didn’t take. Here it is spelled out:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FOLkze-9GcI&feature=channel

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By: PaddikJ http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=4910&cpage=1#comment-11701 PaddikJ Wed, 28 Jan 2009 08:00:11 +0000 http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=4910#comment-11701 What study? NOAA's breathless press release ("pioneering study", "powerful conclusion", ". . . carbon dioxide emissions will have legacies that will irreversibly change the planet.” Good grief, is this science or street corner apocalypse mongering?) doesn't even give a name, although it does claim the study would be published this week. I searched all over PNAS and couldn't find a thing. I'll mostly withhold comment until I can get my hands on the mythical study & see what the means and methods were, but a few things in the press release did stand out: “ 'It has long been known that some of the carbon dioxide emitted by human activities stays in the atmosphere for thousands of years,' Solomon said." Really. Wasn't it only 3-5 years ago that C02 stayed aloft for mere hundreds of years? And before the 1980s, wasn't it scores of years? Solomon does include the sneaky qualifier, "some", which renders the statement effectively meaningless (yeah, and with every breath I take, I inhale some DaVinci molecules); still, readers new to the Climate Debate may be interested in a <a href="http://folk.uio.no/tomvs/esef/np070707.pdf" rel="nofollow">Geologist's take.</a> " ' . . . carbon dioxide [is] unique among the major climate gases,' said Solomon." Again, we'll see, when the study actually appears; in the meantime, looks like standard AGW fixation on a trace, beneficial gas. Regarding the alleged correlation between tropospheric CO2 levels and heat content, <a>another Geologist</a> has other thoughts (the link is to part 1 of 5; you'll need to watch at least parts 1 & 2). Roger is no doubt aware of the above references, so on the face of it, his statement "If Solomon et al. are correct about the irreversibility of climate change, and I have no reason to doubt them . . ." is astonishing; however, since the study has yet to appear he would indeed have no cause for doubt. But maybe he's simply performing the now-standard ritual obeisance to AGW dogma in the hopes that some of its less rigid devotees are amenable to reason - "Yes, it's real and a real problem, but it's not the end of the world as we know it; we need to prioritize, and to consider mitigation and other strategies." Futile, I think. Near the end of his life, the arch socialist & atheist Steven J. Gould finally capitulated to the bible-thumpers with his NOMA olive branch, probably figuring that that old time religion wasn't going anywhere, and he and his fellow evolutionists had better try for detente' instead. But the W.J. Bryan crowd wasn't having any. Not for them some impersonal Prime Mover; they want an interested, caring God. And the AGW Greens don't want high-tech, big engineering mitigation & adaptation solutions; they want humanity trodding soft energy paths to some imagined Ecotopian future. What study? NOAA’s breathless press release (“pioneering study”, “powerful conclusion”, “. . . carbon dioxide emissions will have legacies that will irreversibly change the planet.” Good grief, is this science or street corner apocalypse mongering?) doesn’t even give a name, although it does claim the study would be published this week. I searched all over PNAS and couldn’t find a thing.

I’ll mostly withhold comment until I can get my hands on the mythical study & see what the means and methods were, but a few things in the press release did stand out:

“ ‘It has long been known that some of the carbon dioxide emitted by human activities stays in the atmosphere for thousands of years,’ Solomon said.” Really. Wasn’t it only 3-5 years ago that C02 stayed aloft for mere hundreds of years? And before the 1980s, wasn’t it scores of years? Solomon does include the sneaky qualifier, “some”, which renders the statement effectively meaningless (yeah, and with every breath I take, I inhale some DaVinci molecules); still, readers new to the Climate Debate may be interested in a Geologist’s take.

” ‘ . . . carbon dioxide [is] unique among the major climate gases,’ said Solomon.” Again, we’ll see, when the study actually appears; in the meantime, looks like standard AGW fixation on a trace, beneficial gas. Regarding the alleged correlation between tropospheric CO2 levels and heat content, another Geologist has other thoughts (the link is to part 1 of 5; you’ll need to watch at least parts 1 & 2).

Roger is no doubt aware of the above references, so on the face of it, his statement “If Solomon et al. are correct about the irreversibility of climate change, and I have no reason to doubt them . . .” is astonishing; however, since the study has yet to appear he would indeed have no cause for doubt. But maybe he’s simply performing the now-standard ritual obeisance to AGW dogma in the hopes that some of its less rigid devotees are amenable to reason – “Yes, it’s real and a real problem, but it’s not the end of the world as we know it; we need to prioritize, and to consider mitigation and other strategies.”

Futile, I think. Near the end of his life, the arch socialist & atheist Steven J. Gould finally capitulated to the bible-thumpers with his NOMA olive branch, probably figuring that that old time religion wasn’t going anywhere, and he and his fellow evolutionists had better try for detente’ instead. But the W.J. Bryan crowd wasn’t having any. Not for them some impersonal Prime Mover; they want an interested, caring God. And the AGW Greens don’t want high-tech, big engineering mitigation & adaptation solutions; they want humanity trodding soft energy paths to some imagined Ecotopian future.

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By: Mark Bahner http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=4910&cpage=1#comment-11699 Mark Bahner Wed, 28 Jan 2009 02:01:40 +0000 http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=4910#comment-11699 "A simple example would be the impact of highly efficient desalination processes, the recharging of acquifers in current or emerging arid regions and a dramatic change in land use in arid regions." Yes, here are some recent trends in the cost of desalination: http://www.desalination.ucla.edu/background_files/image004.jpg More recently than these trends, scientists have discovered that carbon nanotubes can separate salt from water with much more energy efficiency than current reverse osmosis membranes: https://publicaffairs.llnl.gov/news/news_releases/2006/NR-06-05-06.html “A simple example would be the impact of highly efficient desalination processes, the recharging of acquifers in current or emerging arid regions and a dramatic change in land use in arid regions.”

Yes, here are some recent trends in the cost of desalination:

http://www.desalination.ucla.edu/background_files/image004.jpg

More recently than these trends, scientists have discovered that carbon nanotubes can separate salt from water with much more energy efficiency than current reverse osmosis membranes:

https://publicaffairs.llnl.gov/news/news_releases/2006/NR-06-05-06.html

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By: Bernie http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=4910&cpage=1#comment-11696 Bernie Tue, 27 Jan 2009 22:18:38 +0000 http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=4910#comment-11696 docpine: I assume youe would throw out the highest and lowest scores to avoid bias? stan: Hubris is exactly the right word. docpine:
I assume youe would throw out the highest and lowest scores to avoid bias?

stan:
Hubris is exactly the right word.

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By: docpine http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=4910&cpage=1#comment-11695 docpine Tue, 27 Jan 2009 21:32:34 +0000 http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=4910#comment-11695 . “Ideas about taking the carbon dioxide away after the world puts it in have been proposed, but right now those are very speculative,” said Solomon." I am thinking many things about this debate are, in fact, speculative including estimates of how bad things will get and how long it will last. Perhaps we need to weigh various knowledge claims in the climate change world based on a defined "index of speculativity" composed of the kinds and forms of speculation, assumption, and projections involved in the claim. Or we could have a panel of experts who would hold up (virtual) cards after a knowledge claim with a subjective speculativity rating. :) . “Ideas about taking the carbon dioxide away after the world puts it in have been proposed, but right now those are very speculative,” said Solomon.”

I am thinking many things about this debate are, in fact, speculative including estimates of how bad things will get and how long it will last. Perhaps we need to weigh various knowledge claims in the climate change world based on a defined “index of speculativity” composed of the kinds and forms of speculation, assumption, and projections involved in the claim.

Or we could have a panel of experts who would hold up (virtual) cards after a knowledge claim with a subjective speculativity rating. :)

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By: Celebrity Paycut - Encouraging celebrities all over the world to save us from global warming by taking a paycut. http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=4910&cpage=1#comment-11693 Celebrity Paycut - Encouraging celebrities all over the world to save us from global warming by taking a paycut. Tue, 27 Jan 2009 21:12:09 +0000 http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=4910#comment-11693 [...] don’t consider any of the policy options that might, you know, reverse it. As Roger Pielke Jr points out, the study didn’t examine the potential for [...] [...] don’t consider any of the policy options that might, you know, reverse it. As Roger Pielke Jr points out, the study didn’t examine the potential for [...]

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By: When the Irreversible Effects Meets the Immovable Policy | OpenMarket.org http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=4910&cpage=1#comment-11692 When the Irreversible Effects Meets the Immovable Policy | OpenMarket.org Tue, 27 Jan 2009 20:33:45 +0000 http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=4910#comment-11692 [...] don’t consider any of the policy options that might, you know, reverse it. As Roger Pielke Jr points out, the study didn’t examine the potential for geoengineering: Geoengineering to remove carbon [...] [...] don’t consider any of the policy options that might, you know, reverse it. As Roger Pielke Jr points out, the study didn’t examine the potential for geoengineering: Geoengineering to remove carbon [...]

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