Comments on: Recycled Nonsense on Disaster Losses http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=4070 Wed, 29 Jul 2009 22:36:51 -0600 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.1 hourly 1 By: Roger Pielke, Jr. http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=4070&cpage=1#comment-7816 Roger Pielke, Jr. Tue, 23 Jan 2007 13:22:09 +0000 http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheusreborn/?p=4070#comment-7816 Tom- Well here is what we say in our wrokshop report from last May: "For future decades the IPCC (2001) expects increases in the occurrence and/or intensity of some extreme events as a result of anthropogenic climate change. Such increases will further increase losses in the absence of disaster reduction measures." Mr. Mills or Newsweek said should something like this rather than something scientifically unsupportable. Tom-

Well here is what we say in our wrokshop report from last May:

“For future decades the IPCC (2001) expects increases in the occurrence and/or intensity of some extreme events as a result of anthropogenic climate change. Such increases will further increase losses in the absence of disaster reduction measures.”

Mr. Mills or Newsweek said should something like this rather than something scientifically unsupportable.

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By: TokyoTom http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=4070&cpage=1#comment-7815 TokyoTom Tue, 23 Jan 2007 12:54:21 +0000 http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheusreborn/?p=4070#comment-7815 Roger, it was Don Rumsfeld, and I was deliberately paying homage to him. My question to you was not rhetorical - don't you in fact expect that someday the evidentiary case will be made that AGW will lead to a shift to more frequent, extreme weather events and contribute to higher disaster losses? The difference of course between my statement and Rumsfeld's is that, like you, I believe that there are plenty of other grounds to justify adaptation responses that will dampen disaster losses. However, I do believe that the possiblity of a linkage between AGW and more extreme weather events/greater losses should be taken into account in considering possible mitigation poicies. An unlike Rumsfeld, who withdrew the UN inspectors, I have an open mind and believe that the research should go on. Roger, it was Don Rumsfeld, and I was deliberately paying homage to him.

My question to you was not rhetorical – don’t you in fact expect that someday the evidentiary case will be made that AGW will lead to a shift to more frequent, extreme weather events and contribute to higher disaster losses?

The difference of course between my statement and Rumsfeld’s is that, like you, I believe that there are plenty of other grounds to justify adaptation responses that will dampen disaster losses.

However, I do believe that the possiblity of a linkage between AGW and more extreme weather events/greater losses should be taken into account in considering possible mitigation poicies. An unlike Rumsfeld, who withdrew the UN inspectors, I have an open mind and believe that the research should go on.

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By: Roger Pielke, Jr. http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=4070&cpage=1#comment-7814 Roger Pielke, Jr. Tue, 23 Jan 2007 12:35:37 +0000 http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheusreborn/?p=4070#comment-7814 Tom- Thanks. I can imagine Dick Cheney saying something similar in 2003 about WMDs and Iraq. "But the absence of evidence is not evidence of absence, as well all know. Furthermore, don't you in fact expect that someday the evidentiary case will be made, if we are indeed in for continuing the war on terror"? Tom- Thanks. I can imagine Dick Cheney saying something similar in 2003 about WMDs and Iraq.

“But the absence of evidence is not evidence of absence, as well all know. Furthermore, don’t you in fact expect that someday the evidentiary case will be made, if we are indeed in for continuing the war on terror”?

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By: bubba http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=4070&cpage=1#comment-7813 bubba Tue, 23 Jan 2007 11:34:19 +0000 http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheusreborn/?p=4070#comment-7813 A prime example of why I gave up on on Newsweek, Time, or any other news mag that tends to feature pop-culture icons on their cover, decades ago for The Economist as my sole news weeklie. I guess it is this kind of prominent placement of the meme of the "increasing cost of climate change" continues to propagate and infect the minds of the uninformed and weakly informed. The effectiveness of the rolodexes of the army of public affairs officers employed by large non-profits in placing this meme in the public arena is an all to often ignored aspect of the issue. A prime example of why I gave up on on Newsweek, Time, or any other news mag that tends to feature pop-culture icons on their cover, decades ago for The Economist as my sole news weeklie.

I guess it is this kind of prominent placement of the meme of the “increasing cost of climate change” continues to propagate and infect the minds of the uninformed and weakly informed.

The effectiveness of the rolodexes of the army of public affairs officers employed by large non-profits in placing this meme in the public arena is an all to often ignored aspect of the issue.

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By: TokyoTom http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=4070&cpage=1#comment-7812 TokyoTom Tue, 23 Jan 2007 07:01:19 +0000 http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheusreborn/?p=4070#comment-7812 Roger, alright, perhaps what Mills is saying cannot yet be supported. But the absence of evidence is not evidence of absence, as well all know. Furthermore, don't you in fact expect that someday the evidentiary case will be made, if we are indeed in for continuing AGW? Roger, alright, perhaps what Mills is saying cannot yet be supported. But the absence of evidence is not evidence of absence, as well all know.

Furthermore, don’t you in fact expect that someday the evidentiary case will be made, if we are indeed in for continuing AGW?

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By: Michael D. Setty http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=4070&cpage=1#comment-7811 Michael D. Setty Mon, 22 Jan 2007 23:39:30 +0000 http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheusreborn/?p=4070#comment-7811 It is the nature of insurance companies to cancel policies for any excuse that seems plausible. Clearly the mounting losses along U.S. coastlines are mainly due to the fact that there is an order of magnitude of relatively expensive development than there was a few decades ago. This factor alone probably explains the skyrocketing losses due to weather. I'm not suprised that policies are being cancelled left and right; folks with expensive beachfront houses ARE in high risk zones, AGW or not. It is the nature of insurance companies to cancel policies for any excuse that seems plausible. Clearly the mounting losses along U.S. coastlines are mainly due to the fact that there is an order of magnitude of relatively expensive development than there was a few decades ago. This factor alone probably explains the skyrocketing losses due to weather. I’m not suprised that policies are being cancelled left and right; folks with expensive beachfront houses ARE in high risk zones, AGW or not.

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