Comments on: How fast can a big economy decarbonize? http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=5114 Wed, 29 Jul 2009 22:36:51 -0600 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.1 hourly 1 By: Mark Bahner http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=5114&cpage=1#comment-13305 Mark Bahner Wed, 08 Apr 2009 21:48:11 +0000 http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=5114#comment-13305 "What does any economy gain by decarbonizing and does a big economy have to remain big after decarbonization is complete?" Historically, the entire world has decarbonized, from coal, to oil, to natural gas...to nuclear fission, though fission's contribution seems to have plateaued. (Unfortunately...liquid fluoride thorium reactors look spectacular, from what I've seen.) The gain has been fewer other air pollutants: coal is much more polluting than oil, which is somewhat more polluting than natural gas. And of course, nuclear fission doesn't emit any air pollution at all, except during Chernobyl-like events. “What does any economy gain by decarbonizing and does a big economy have to remain big after decarbonization is complete?”

Historically, the entire world has decarbonized, from coal, to oil, to natural gas…to nuclear fission, though fission’s contribution seems to have plateaued. (Unfortunately…liquid fluoride thorium reactors look spectacular, from what I’ve seen.)

The gain has been fewer other air pollutants: coal is much more polluting than oil, which is somewhat more polluting than natural gas.

And of course, nuclear fission doesn’t emit any air pollution at all, except during Chernobyl-like events.

]]> By: Mark Bahner http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=5114&cpage=1#comment-13303 Mark Bahner Wed, 08 Apr 2009 21:21:51 +0000 http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=5114#comment-13303 Hi Roger, I'll leave this one to you (you obviously have time on your hands ;-)). Take Jesse Ausubel's Exhibit 2 from this webpage: http://phe.rockefeller.edu/future_business/ Get a linear regression for each of those 5 countries. Then extend the regression all the way to 2100. Also get the data for the energy consumed by those 5 countries (in tons of oil equivalent...from some other website), and extend those energy consumption trends all the way to 2100. What do the projected carbon emissions curves look like for those 5 countries? Mark P.S. Or you could have some convenient slave labor do the analysis... ;-) Hi Roger,

I’ll leave this one to you (you obviously have time on your hands ;-) ).

Take Jesse Ausubel’s Exhibit 2 from this webpage:

http://phe.rockefeller.edu/future_business/

Get a linear regression for each of those 5 countries. Then extend the regression all the way to 2100.

Also get the data for the energy consumed by those 5 countries (in tons of oil equivalent…from some other website), and extend those energy consumption trends all the way to 2100.

What do the projected carbon emissions curves look like for those 5 countries?

Mark

P.S. Or you could have some convenient slave labor do the analysis… ;-)

]]> By: Topics about Energycrisis » Archive » How fast can a big economy decarbonize? http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=5114&cpage=1#comment-13301 Topics about Energycrisis » Archive » How fast can a big economy decarbonize? Wed, 08 Apr 2009 21:13:38 +0000 http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=5114#comment-13301 [...] Hartness Library System added an interesting post on How fast can a big economy decarbonize?Here’s a small excerptRemarkably, with all of the talk of targets and timetables for emissions reduction and expansion of renewable energy technologies, only a few [...] [...] Hartness Library System added an interesting post on How fast can a big economy decarbonize?Here’s a small excerptRemarkably, with all of the talk of targets and timetables for emissions reduction and expansion of renewable energy technologies, only a few [...]

]]> By: maurmike http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=5114&cpage=1#comment-13299 maurmike Wed, 08 Apr 2009 20:02:59 +0000 http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=5114#comment-13299 Looking at my comment #7 it appears not to directly answer Roger's question. What I'm saying is that decarbonizing any large economy in a short time frame isn't practical. By short I mean anything less than 50 years. Also you need to decarbonize many economies at the same time to have any real effect. The latter is so disruptive it shouldn't be tried. MIKE MCHENRY Looking at my comment #7 it appears not to directly answer Roger’s question. What I’m saying is that decarbonizing any large economy in a short time frame isn’t practical. By short I mean anything less than 50 years. Also you need to decarbonize many economies at the same time to have any real effect. The latter is so disruptive it shouldn’t be tried.

MIKE MCHENRY

]]> By: maurmike http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=5114&cpage=1#comment-13292 maurmike Wed, 08 Apr 2009 17:45:49 +0000 http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=5114#comment-13292 There have been a number analyses published on what it takes to de-carbonize the global energy. Including on this blog. There is no point to isolating the discussion to just the USA. That can't solve the problem. My recollection is the equivalent of 10,000 nuclear plants globally over the next 50 years is what needed. Given the implausibilty of that scenario modest targets for decarbonization combine with air capture, geo engineriing and adaption make more sense. By modest no growth in CO2 emissions within ten years. Developed economies could do it faster and developing slower. Looking past that a gradual reduction in emissions. R&D dollars should be focused on on geo engineering and air capture for the next 20 years. Later if needed the development of adaption strategies. lastly the press, science and politicians need to start informing the public of the realties and move away from the outrageous rhetoric. MIKE MCHENRY There have been a number analyses published on what it takes to de-carbonize the global energy. Including on this blog. There is no point to isolating the discussion to just the USA. That can’t solve the problem. My recollection is the equivalent of 10,000 nuclear plants globally over the next 50 years is what needed. Given the implausibilty of that scenario modest targets for decarbonization combine with air capture, geo engineriing and adaption make more sense. By modest no growth in CO2 emissions within ten years. Developed economies could do it faster and developing slower. Looking past that a gradual reduction in emissions. R&D dollars should be focused on on geo engineering and air capture for the next 20 years. Later if needed the development of adaption strategies. lastly the press, science and politicians need to start informing the public of the realties and move away from the outrageous rhetoric. MIKE MCHENRY

]]> By: michel http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=5114&cpage=1#comment-13291 michel Wed, 08 Apr 2009 17:34:38 +0000 http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=5114#comment-13291 Roger, I don't understand the question (how fast can a big economy decarbonize). We need to be a bit clearer about what is being asked. We know how quickly various economies have recently done it, and you've published some very interesting numbers. How fast could any particular one, absent any constraints of political possibility, surely there is no real limit, and one has to turn the question around, and simply ask how much savings certain measures, politically possible or not, would generate. You would simply ban some activities (like the private car) and if there was not enough passenger train capacity, well, travel would shrink as well. Surely if you are prepared to take a large poltical and GDP hit, you can get it down very fast indeed? Or is your question, how fast can you lower units of carbon per unit of GDP? How fast can you lower carbon intensity? Again it surely depends what you are prepared to simply stop doing, how much you are prepared to change the way we live. If you are prepared simply to stop doing energy intensive things, and change the carbon intensity of the economy that way, there is surely little real limit to the speed of decarb? Where would the limits come from? Roger, I don’t understand the question (how fast can a big economy decarbonize). We need to be a bit clearer about what is being asked. We know how quickly various economies have recently done it, and you’ve published some very interesting numbers.

How fast could any particular one, absent any constraints of political possibility, surely there is no real limit, and one has to turn the question around, and simply ask how much savings certain measures, politically possible or not, would generate. You would simply ban some activities (like the private car) and if there was not enough passenger train capacity, well, travel would shrink as well.

Surely if you are prepared to take a large poltical and GDP hit, you can get it down very fast indeed?

Or is your question, how fast can you lower units of carbon per unit of GDP? How fast can you lower carbon intensity? Again it surely depends what you are prepared to simply stop doing, how much you are prepared to change the way we live. If you are prepared simply to stop doing energy intensive things, and change the carbon intensity of the economy that way, there is surely little real limit to the speed of decarb?

Where would the limits come from?

]]> By: ROA http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=5114&cpage=1#comment-13287 ROA Wed, 08 Apr 2009 16:18:33 +0000 http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=5114#comment-13287 What does any economy gain by decarbonizing and does a big economy have to remain big after decarbonization is complete? I apologize for the snarky questions, but they were the first ones that came to mind after reading the post. What does any economy gain by decarbonizing and does a big economy have to remain big after decarbonization is complete?

I apologize for the snarky questions, but they were the first ones that came to mind after reading the post.

]]> By: Roger Pielke, Jr. http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=5114&cpage=1#comment-13283 Roger Pielke, Jr. Wed, 08 Apr 2009 15:18:43 +0000 http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=5114#comment-13283 -3-Reid "big economies can’t decarbonize" This statement is wrong. Big economies, and indeed the global as a whole, have been decarbonizing for man, many decades. The question is how fast can this process be managed, or whether in can be managed. Also,, please stick to the analysis, Khmer Rouge allusions are vivid but not so informative. Thanks! -3-Reid

“big economies can’t decarbonize”

This statement is wrong. Big economies, and indeed the global as a whole, have been decarbonizing for man, many decades. The question is how fast can this process be managed, or whether in can be managed.

Also,, please stick to the analysis, Khmer Rouge allusions are vivid but not so informative. Thanks!

]]> By: Reid http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=5114&cpage=1#comment-13282 Reid Wed, 08 Apr 2009 15:04:14 +0000 http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=5114#comment-13282 Roger asks "How fast can a big economy decarbonize?" This is a false question since big economies can't decarbonize. The planet is going to have much higher atmospheric CO2 in the future and it will be a net positive for life on planet earth. Even Khmer Rouge anti-carbon tactics could not remotely decarbonize the economy but it would kill billions trying. Roger asks “How fast can a big economy decarbonize?”

This is a false question since big economies can’t decarbonize. The planet is going to have much higher atmospheric CO2 in the future and it will be a net positive for life on planet earth. Even Khmer Rouge anti-carbon tactics could not remotely decarbonize the economy but it would kill billions trying.

]]> By: Roger Pielke, Jr. http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=5114&cpage=1#comment-13281 Roger Pielke, Jr. Wed, 08 Apr 2009 14:44:56 +0000 http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=5114#comment-13281 -1-byclark Yes, it is true the big energy companies have interests. However,this post is focused not on their motives, but their analyses. How fast can a big economy decarbonize? -1-byclark

Yes, it is true the big energy companies have interests. However,this post is focused not on their motives, but their analyses. How fast can a big economy decarbonize?

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