Comments on: Massive Confusion in the New York Times http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=4889 Wed, 29 Jul 2009 22:36:51 -0600 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.1 hourly 1 By: Do the math « Heliophage http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=4889&cpage=1#comment-11628 Do the math « Heliophage Thu, 22 Jan 2009 15:13:09 +0000 http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=4889#comment-11628 [...] mindset of making sure the underlying maths behind what you are saying makes sense. Roger Pielke Jr applies this mindset to the Times: Today’s New York Times has an editorial in which it claims that: The plain truth [...] [...] mindset of making sure the underlying maths behind what you are saying makes sense. Roger Pielke Jr applies this mindset to the Times: Today’s New York Times has an editorial in which it claims that: The plain truth [...]

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By: Roger Pielke, Jr. http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=4889&cpage=1#comment-11611 Roger Pielke, Jr. Wed, 21 Jan 2009 07:52:58 +0000 http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=4889#comment-11611 Jim- "Care to address my assertions?" Not really, though you have correctly identified that decarbonization of the global economy is a big part of my current research, so please expect to hear more about that here. If you want to comment here using a fake name that is fine, but please don't use the name of a real person, otherwise I'll delete them. Jim-

“Care to address my assertions?”

Not really, though you have correctly identified that decarbonization of the global economy is a big part of my current research, so please expect to hear more about that here.

If you want to comment here using a fake name that is fine, but please don’t use the name of a real person, otherwise I’ll delete them.

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By: Jim Hansen http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=4889&cpage=1#comment-11608 Jim Hansen Tue, 20 Jan 2009 22:48:56 +0000 http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=4889#comment-11608 Again. No need to decarbonize. And I really don't get pointing out the errors in the small details of the agenda pushers, while still accepting the agenda. Even if we got off of oil and coal, ethanol and other renewables are still carbon based and windmills won't spin long without petroleum based lubricants and their many polymer based parts. As long as we make everything out of plastic we haven't decarbonized ANYTHING. Electric trains and cars will still carry a carbon footprint and always will, and we will still pump, refine and produce petroleum products and byproducts. Furthermore, recent study shows that computer and internet use creates a MASSIVE carbon footprint and their disposal is an environmental nightmare, so automation efficiency offers little net gain environmentally. There exists right now, by current means, NO CARBON FREE FUTURE OR PLAN FOR ONE. FACT. Roger, you include the word "decarbonization" in everything you write lately. Care to address my assertions? Again. No need to decarbonize.

And I really don’t get pointing out the errors in the small details of the agenda pushers, while still accepting the agenda.

Even if we got off of oil and coal, ethanol and other renewables are still carbon based and windmills won’t spin long without petroleum based lubricants and their many polymer based parts. As long as we make everything out of plastic we haven’t decarbonized ANYTHING. Electric trains and cars will still carry a carbon footprint and always will, and we will still pump, refine and produce petroleum products and byproducts. Furthermore, recent study shows that computer and internet use creates a MASSIVE carbon footprint and their disposal is an environmental nightmare, so automation efficiency offers little net gain environmentally.

There exists right now, by current means, NO CARBON FREE FUTURE OR PLAN FOR ONE. FACT.

Roger, you include the word “decarbonization” in everything you write lately. Care to address my assertions?

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By: jae http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=4889&cpage=1#comment-11599 jae Tue, 20 Jan 2009 02:20:41 +0000 http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=4889#comment-11599 Hmmm. Just WHEN did the NYT worry about getting things correct? Maybe back in the 40's ? No wonder their subscriptions continue to dwindle. More LOL. Hmmm. Just WHEN did the NYT worry about getting things correct? Maybe back in the 40’s ? No wonder their subscriptions continue to dwindle. More LOL.

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By: Mark Bahner http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=4889&cpage=1#comment-11598 Mark Bahner Mon, 19 Jan 2009 23:07:41 +0000 http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=4889#comment-11598 P.S. I see that Arizona *does* have fairly high per-capita emissions (I was going by memory). The per-capita emissions for Arizona are at least as high as Florida. So maybe humidity isn't so important after all. P.S. I see that Arizona *does* have fairly high per-capita emissions (I was going by memory). The per-capita emissions for Arizona are at least as high as Florida. So maybe humidity isn’t so important after all.

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By: Mark Bahner http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=4889&cpage=1#comment-11597 Mark Bahner Mon, 19 Jan 2009 23:03:21 +0000 http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=4889#comment-11597 "Japan doesn’t have a similar endowment of energy resources as the US. Lacking any significant fossil fuel resources and, moreover, being suspicious of nuclear, it has had to be more energy efficient than the US. Secondly, both Germany and Japan have lower population densities, lower areal extent (and lower populations), which means less miles traveled per capita and more scope for mass transit. Hence, it is hardly surprising that their energy intensity is lower than that of the US. (It may also be worthwhile looking at differences in heating and cooling degree days.)" It would be interesting to try to come up with a model that mimics per-capita energy use and per-capita CO2 emissions from country to country, and within countries (e.g. between states, and even within states in the U.S.). For example, here's a very cool (no climate pun intended) map of U.S. per-capita CO2 emissions: http://blog.wired.com/photos/uncategorized/2008/04/16/newvulcan.jpg Notice that southern Texas has some high areas. Also notice that areas of Colorado, and the San Joaquin valley in California have high emissions. The emissions for all these three places seems to correlate with oil and gas field locations: http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/rpd/topfields.pdf But also notice that Maine and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan have high emissions. That may be due to cold weather (heating requirements). Finally, notice that Florida has some high emission areas; those are probably due to air conditioning requirements. It would be interesting to construct a model for the U.S. based on these data, then see how well the model predicted for other countries. For example, the model would presumably predict very high per-capita emissions for oil-producing countries in the Middle East. Likewise, it would presumably predict high per-capita emissions for northern countries (e.g. Canada)...but maybe only if those northern countries were sparsely populated. For example, Maine and the Upper Peninsula have high emissions per capita, but not so for Chicago, New York City, Detroit, and other large northern cities. Likewise, the prediction for southern countries would be high, but apparently only if those countries are pretty humid...e.g., Arizona doesn't seem to be high-emitting. “Japan doesn’t have a similar endowment of energy resources as the US. Lacking any significant fossil fuel resources and, moreover, being suspicious of nuclear, it has had to be more energy efficient than the US. Secondly, both Germany and Japan have lower population densities, lower areal extent (and lower populations), which means less miles traveled per capita and more scope for mass transit. Hence, it is hardly surprising that their energy intensity is lower than that of the US. (It may also be worthwhile looking at differences in heating and cooling degree days.)”

It would be interesting to try to come up with a model that mimics per-capita energy use and per-capita CO2 emissions from country to country, and within countries (e.g. between states, and even within states in the U.S.).

For example, here’s a very cool (no climate pun intended) map of U.S. per-capita CO2 emissions:

http://blog.wired.com/photos/uncategorized/2008/04/16/newvulcan.jpg

Notice that southern Texas has some high areas. Also notice that areas of Colorado, and the San Joaquin valley in California have high emissions. The emissions for all these three places seems to correlate with oil and gas field locations:

http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/rpd/topfields.pdf

But also notice that Maine and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan have high emissions. That may be due to cold weather (heating requirements).

Finally, notice that Florida has some high emission areas; those are probably due to air conditioning requirements.

It would be interesting to construct a model for the U.S. based on these data, then see how well the model predicted for other countries. For example, the model would presumably predict very high per-capita emissions for oil-producing countries in the Middle East. Likewise, it would presumably predict high per-capita emissions for northern countries (e.g. Canada)…but maybe only if those northern countries were sparsely populated. For example, Maine and the Upper Peninsula have high emissions per capita, but not so for Chicago, New York City, Detroit, and other large northern cities.

Likewise, the prediction for southern countries would be high, but apparently only if those countries are pretty humid…e.g., Arizona doesn’t seem to be high-emitting.

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By: Roger Pielke, Jr. http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=4889&cpage=1#comment-11596 Roger Pielke, Jr. Mon, 19 Jan 2009 22:07:06 +0000 http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=4889#comment-11596 Tarpon- Cross country comparisons are indeed likely to deceive. Using the NYT methodology the world's three most "efficient" countries are Chad, Cambodia and the Congo. Maurmike- I did send in a letter, and its text is different than this blog posting, since they disallow prior published material. If it is not accepted within a week, I'll post it up for posterity sake. Goks- Agreed, but since Japan and Germany are both 50% less carbon intensive than the US, there remain important lessons to be learned, even if not all the lessons can be transferred. More on this soon. Tarpon-

Cross country comparisons are indeed likely to deceive. Using the NYT methodology the world’s three most “efficient” countries are Chad, Cambodia and the Congo.

Maurmike-

I did send in a letter, and its text is different than this blog posting, since they disallow prior published material. If it is not accepted within a week, I’ll post it up for posterity sake.

Goks-

Agreed, but since Japan and Germany are both 50% less carbon intensive than the US, there remain important lessons to be learned, even if not all the lessons can be transferred. More on this soon.

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By: maurmike http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=4889&cpage=1#comment-11595 maurmike Mon, 19 Jan 2009 21:57:48 +0000 http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=4889#comment-11595 I don't think the Times was confused. They always use the data that's most persuasive in supporting their agenda. Roger have you sent a letter to the editor? Mike McHenry I don’t think the Times was confused. They always use the data that’s most persuasive in supporting their agenda. Roger have you sent a letter to the editor?

Mike McHenry

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By: tarpon http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=4889&cpage=1#comment-11594 tarpon Mon, 19 Jan 2009 21:30:09 +0000 http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=4889#comment-11594 What is left out of these much smaller geographic country comparisons, is well, they are much smaller in geographic size. As a country that spans a continent, it's going to take more energy to travel and move goods around. What I find most interesting about discussion with people about CO2, few know what photosynthesis is, and even less understand cellular respiration. Photosynthesis, isn't that something you do with Photoshop? Cellular what? I know what texting is but ... Carbon lifeforms could use a little education to go with that Blackberry. What is left out of these much smaller geographic country comparisons, is well, they are much smaller in geographic size. As a country that spans a continent, it’s going to take more energy to travel and move goods around.

What I find most interesting about discussion with people about CO2, few know what photosynthesis is, and even less understand cellular respiration. Photosynthesis, isn’t that something you do with Photoshop? Cellular what? I know what texting is but … Carbon lifeforms could use a little education to go with that Blackberry.

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By: i.goklany http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=4889&cpage=1#comment-11593 i.goklany Mon, 19 Jan 2009 20:22:34 +0000 http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=4889#comment-11593 Good catch. However, while the US could no doubt learn from Japan and Germany (including what not to push), I would disagree that they would necessarily be excellent models for the US. First, Japan doesn’t have a similar endowment of energy resources as the US. Lacking any significant fossil fuel resources and, moreover, being suspicious of nuclear, it has had to be more energy efficient than the US. Secondly, both Germany and Japan have lower population densities, lower areal extent (and lower populations), which means less miles traveled per capita and more scope for mass transit. Hence, it is hardly surprising that their energy intensity is lower than that of the US. (It may also be worthwhile looking at differences in heating and cooling degree days.) Good catch. However, while the US could no doubt learn from Japan and Germany (including what not to push), I would disagree that they would necessarily be excellent models for the US. First, Japan doesn’t have a similar endowment of energy resources as the US. Lacking any significant fossil fuel resources and, moreover, being suspicious of nuclear, it has had to be more energy efficient than the US. Secondly, both Germany and Japan have lower population densities, lower areal extent (and lower populations), which means less miles traveled per capita and more scope for mass transit. Hence, it is hardly surprising that their energy intensity is lower than that of the US. (It may also be worthwhile looking at differences in heating and cooling degree days.)

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