Comments on: The Point of Economic Activity and Other Useful Criteria http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=5132 Wed, 29 Jul 2009 22:36:51 -0600 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.1 hourly 1 By: Maurice Garoutte http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=5132&cpage=1#comment-13376 Maurice Garoutte Thu, 16 Apr 2009 19:16:23 +0000 http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=5132#comment-13376 Yes it’s true that the single number for GDP is a poor measurement of something as complex as a superpower economy. The reduction of complex systems to a single dimension measurement is a common human (ok mostly male) error. It allows us the illusion of understanding something only vaguely seen. Obama’s problem is that he has no experienced central economy planners on his staff. If he really wants to micromanage the economy he needs to hire some of the many experienced, and un-employed, central planners in Russia. What could go wrong? Yes it’s true that the single number for GDP is a poor measurement of something as complex as a superpower economy. The reduction of complex systems to a single dimension measurement is a common human (ok mostly male) error. It allows us the illusion of understanding something only vaguely seen.

Obama’s problem is that he has no experienced central economy planners on his staff. If he really wants to micromanage the economy he needs to hire some of the many experienced, and un-employed, central planners in Russia. What could go wrong?

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By: Len Ornstein http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=5132&cpage=1#comment-13374 Len Ornstein Thu, 16 Apr 2009 17:59:49 +0000 http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=5132#comment-13374 And of course, 'price' involves the way currencies are valued as well as the values that are perceived to be associated with uncertain risks – and these vary wildly from culture to culture, place to place, and over time. But global 'averages' are what need to be used in making global assessments. And of course, ‘price’ involves the way currencies are valued as well as the values that are perceived to be associated with uncertain risks – and these vary wildly from culture to culture, place to place, and over time. But global ‘averages’ are what need to be used in making global assessments.

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By: dean http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=5132&cpage=1#comment-13373 dean Thu, 16 Apr 2009 17:19:00 +0000 http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=5132#comment-13373 Sometimes the answers aren't simple. The idea that individuals will always allocate investment better than government is not true. Sometimes it is. It depends on what you are talking about. Individuals will not invest in very expensive and long-term projects which can greatly improve the productivity of economic activity in general. This is why government takes responsibility for most major infrastructure. But government isn't so good at choosing the next best internet thing. Nor do investors (whether or not they are the government) need to be perfect. Government subsidies for the transcontinental railroad are often held out as an example of a project that worked well, and yet that was fraught with corruption. However, in the case of cap and trade, I agree that this is not the right strategy. Far too complex and for too unlikely to get it right. That's why straightforward carbon taxes are gaining favor with even some who in the past would have lauded something that uses market processes. The issue is how we are to deal with a negative externality. This is not something where individual decision can provide a solution that I can see. Sometimes the answers aren’t simple. The idea that individuals will always allocate investment better than government is not true. Sometimes it is. It depends on what you are talking about. Individuals will not invest in very expensive and long-term projects which can greatly improve the productivity of economic activity in general. This is why government takes responsibility for most major infrastructure. But government isn’t so good at choosing the next best internet thing.

Nor do investors (whether or not they are the government) need to be perfect. Government subsidies for the transcontinental railroad are often held out as an example of a project that worked well, and yet that was fraught with corruption.

However, in the case of cap and trade, I agree that this is not the right strategy. Far too complex and for too unlikely to get it right. That’s why straightforward carbon taxes are gaining favor with even some who in the past would have lauded something that uses market processes.

The issue is how we are to deal with a negative externality. This is not something where individual decision can provide a solution that I can see.

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By: Len Ornstein http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=5132&cpage=1#comment-13372 Len Ornstein Thu, 16 Apr 2009 17:11:09 +0000 http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=5132#comment-13372 Roger: "Cheaper"! The problems are: "For whom?" and "When?" It's very difficult to make such estimates for a global population – and for that population, at various times in the future. But that's just what's required! A decision to accept business as usual until 2100, is quite like junking a new car to stimulate the auto industry; it only looks at a 'small' piece of the problem. You – and those you criticize – and almost all of us usually make this same 'mistake'. Roger:

“Cheaper”!

The problems are: “For whom?” and “When?”

It’s very difficult to make such estimates for a global population – and for that population, at various times in the future. But that’s just what’s required!

A decision to accept business as usual until 2100, is quite like junking a new car to stimulate the auto industry; it only looks at a ’small’ piece of the problem.

You – and those you criticize – and almost all of us usually make this same ‘mistake’.

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By: stan http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=5132&cpage=1#comment-13368 stan Thu, 16 Apr 2009 12:30:34 +0000 http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=5132#comment-13368 Roger, you seem to fallen right back into the broken window fallacy. "While people will debate legitimately what constitutes avoidable or wasteful costs (e.g., auto manufacturers will welcome policies to scrap older cars, others may not)" Everyone recognizes that the glazier (or auto manufacturer) welcomes the broken window (govt subsidy). Bastiat was trying to get everyone to recognize that society as a whole was worse off. Destroying a working automobile does not make society better off. It makes society poorer. Remember the idiots who said that Hurricane Andrew was good for the Florida economy? Algore also defended the govt regs on refrigerant change on the grounds that forcing businesses to scrap all their working A/C systems and buy new ones was good for the economy. By that same type thinking, one would argue that a flood which wiped out New York would also be good for the economy. Keynes fell for the same fallacy. Currently in Washington we have people claiming that all that matters is govt spending and the object of the spending doesn't matter. They assert that waste, fraud, etc. make no difference to the economy, only the amount spent. Of course, the recipients of the largesse are always happy to get it and willing to debate whether it constitutes waste. The keys are productivity and wealth. Increasing productivity improves the standard of living. Destroying property makes us poorer and reduces our ability to be productive. Even Christina Romer, the Chair of President Obama's Council of Economic Advisers, did a study a few years ago which showed that tax cuts are far better for improving the economy than govt spending. Individuals do a much better job of allocating resources productively. That shouldn't be a surprise. That transactions freely entered into produce greater utility than transactions coerced by govt should be obvious to anyone. If someone went to the parking lot where you work and played demolition derby, I don't think your co-workers would have much sympathy for the argument that the demolition was good for the economy. And even if the govt made someone else (i.e. taxpayers) pay for the damage, the negative impact to the economy as a whole would be the same. Roger, you seem to fallen right back into the broken window fallacy. “While people will debate legitimately what constitutes avoidable or wasteful costs (e.g., auto manufacturers will welcome policies to scrap older cars, others may not)”

Everyone recognizes that the glazier (or auto manufacturer) welcomes the broken window (govt subsidy). Bastiat was trying to get everyone to recognize that society as a whole was worse off.

Destroying a working automobile does not make society better off. It makes society poorer.

Remember the idiots who said that Hurricane Andrew was good for the Florida economy? Algore also defended the govt regs on refrigerant change on the grounds that forcing businesses to scrap all their working A/C systems and buy new ones was good for the economy. By that same type thinking, one would argue that a flood which wiped out New York would also be good for the economy.

Keynes fell for the same fallacy.

Currently in Washington we have people claiming that all that matters is govt spending and the object of the spending doesn’t matter. They assert that waste, fraud, etc. make no difference to the economy, only the amount spent. Of course, the recipients of the largesse are always happy to get it and willing to debate whether it constitutes waste.

The keys are productivity and wealth. Increasing productivity improves the standard of living. Destroying property makes us poorer and reduces our ability to be productive. Even Christina Romer, the Chair of President Obama’s Council of Economic Advisers, did a study a few years ago which showed that tax cuts are far better for improving the economy than govt spending. Individuals do a much better job of allocating resources productively. That shouldn’t be a surprise. That transactions freely entered into produce greater utility than transactions coerced by govt should be obvious to anyone.

If someone went to the parking lot where you work and played demolition derby, I don’t think your co-workers would have much sympathy for the argument that the demolition was good for the economy. And even if the govt made someone else (i.e. taxpayers) pay for the damage, the negative impact to the economy as a whole would be the same.

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