For the sake of expedience, I put up Jerry’s comments in the last post without much pause for reflection as I was absorbed by other things at the moment, one of which was the seminar on the Crooked Timber blog…

Thanks. Overall I think that the author did a nice job, though that was one of two sentences that I’d quibble with, but I think that most readers would understand. That sentence does not accurately reflect my views, and I don’t think my father’s either. I chalk it up to a situation of too much subtlety for the available few words, which probably has more to do with the complexity of the issues rather than anything else.

A direct reply to your question:

Of course it is possible to predict global average climate trends. I’m not clear on what is actually implied by saying that it is not possible. I am sure my father would same something with a great deal of subtlety about how _accurate_ prediction in unlikely without considering the full spectrum of first-order effects. And of course a lot more could be said (and has) about climate prediction and its uses.

Also, FYI I co-edited a whole book on “prediction,” which includes a chapter by Steve Rayner (now at Oxford) on climate change, and Dan Sarewitz and I have written extensively on this subject. For instance:

Pielke, Jr., R.A., 2003: The role of models in prediction for decision, Chapter 7, pp. 113-137 in C. Canham and W. Lauenroth (eds.), Understanding Ecosystems: The Role of Quantitative Models in Observations, Synthesis, and Prediction, Princeton University Press, Princeton, N.J.
http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/admin/publication_files/2001.12.pdf

Thanks!

I don’t understand “neither father nor son thinks that predicting global average climate trends is possible”. Do you really believe that? RP Sr has posted an ambiguous comment on my blog, so I don’t know whether he supports it or not. Did you say that, or is its Natures inaccurate paraphrase?

D