Comments on: Chu is Right, But Not About Cap and Trade http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=5154 Wed, 29 Jul 2009 22:36:51 -0600 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.1 hourly 1 By: Raven http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=5154&cpage=1#comment-13561 Raven Sat, 25 Apr 2009 00:26:26 +0000 http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=5154#comment-13561 Kevin, Electrical prices tend to be regional so nothing you said alters my point: prices will go up for all electricity in a market. It is possible that a national cap and trade could have the effect of subsidizing electrical prices for some regions at the expense of other regions where coal fired power generation is the only option. However, those regional effects only increase the economic pain inflicted by the cap and trade system. I suspect you are grossly misinterpreting the EPA claims. Cap and trade cannot not make expensive electricity sources cheaper. All it can do increase prices to the point where the expensive electricity sources become economic Kevin,

Electrical prices tend to be regional so nothing you said alters my point: prices will go up for all electricity in a market.

It is possible that a national cap and trade could have the effect of subsidizing electrical prices for some regions at the expense of other regions where coal fired power generation is the only option. However, those regional effects only increase the economic pain inflicted by the cap and trade system.

I suspect you are grossly misinterpreting the EPA claims. Cap and trade cannot not make expensive electricity sources cheaper. All it can do increase prices to the point where the expensive electricity sources become economic

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By: Wall Street Journal » Blog Archive » Green Ink: Cap-and-Haggle http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=5154&cpage=1#comment-13558 Wall Street Journal » Blog Archive » Green Ink: Cap-and-Haggle Fri, 24 Apr 2009 23:08:23 +0000 http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=5154#comment-13558 [...] Roger Pielke Jr. wonders how the energy secretary squares support for cap-and-trade with a call for lower energy prices. Meanwhile, a couple of former DOE officials call for a “realistic” energy policy and warn of [...] [...] Roger Pielke Jr. wonders how the energy secretary squares support for cap-and-trade with a call for lower energy prices. Meanwhile, a couple of former DOE officials call for a “realistic” energy policy and warn of [...]

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By: paminator http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=5154&cpage=1#comment-13522 paminator Fri, 24 Apr 2009 15:24:49 +0000 http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=5154#comment-13522 kevin- you say "...only coal-based electricity increases in price while other sources actually decline in price from their baseline because of the reward they get from being more carbon-efficient than coal." That's a pretty deep pile of wishful thinking. Do you really think an IPP nat. gas plant owner is going to pass their savings onto the customers? It's the same story we hear about solar PV. Manufacturing costs have dropped over the past 8 years. Yet customers are not seeing those cost reductions. Solar PV consumer prices have actually gone up over the same time period (until the most recent 4 months of recession). The only way I can see to make cap and tax reduce fossil fuel use is by driving up its cost. Th only way I can see to protect consumers from gasoline price hikes is to legislate the price of gasoline. You can try to meet both objectives by legislating how much profit/loss the energy producers can obtain from running their businesses. We have an excellent example of this approach in CA during the electricity deregulation fiasco of the late 1990's into the early 2000's. It bankrupted two major power utilities in less than 5 years. Fortunately, the speaker of the house, a CA rep, should have excellent hindsight and avoid repeating such a financial fiasco....right? kevin- you say “…only coal-based electricity increases in price while other sources actually decline in price from their baseline because of the reward they get from being more carbon-efficient than coal.”

That’s a pretty deep pile of wishful thinking. Do you really think an IPP nat. gas plant owner is going to pass their savings onto the customers? It’s the same story we hear about solar PV. Manufacturing costs have dropped over the past 8 years. Yet customers are not seeing those cost reductions. Solar PV consumer prices have actually gone up over the same time period (until the most recent 4 months of recession).

The only way I can see to make cap and tax reduce fossil fuel use is by driving up its cost. Th only way I can see to protect consumers from gasoline price hikes is to legislate the price of gasoline. You can try to meet both objectives by legislating how much profit/loss the energy producers can obtain from running their businesses.

We have an excellent example of this approach in CA during the electricity deregulation fiasco of the late 1990’s into the early 2000’s. It bankrupted two major power utilities in less than 5 years. Fortunately, the speaker of the house, a CA rep, should have excellent hindsight and avoid repeating such a financial fiasco….right?

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By: kevin http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=5154&cpage=1#comment-13521 kevin Fri, 24 Apr 2009 15:08:25 +0000 http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=5154#comment-13521 Raven, sorry, you're wrong. The electricity markets are far more complex than that, and "there can only be one market price for electricity" is ... well, clearly not true if you've spent time in the utility industry. Under cap-and-trade, coal-dominated utility customers will see higher prices while some nat. gas customers will very likely see their prices fall. If you don't believe me, go find the EPA analysis of Lieberman-Warner and read their supporting documentation. You can quibble with their analysis if you want, but they are correct. Raven, sorry, you’re wrong. The electricity markets are far more complex than that, and “there can only be one market price for electricity” is … well, clearly not true if you’ve spent time in the utility industry. Under cap-and-trade, coal-dominated utility customers will see higher prices while some nat. gas customers will very likely see their prices fall. If you don’t believe me, go find the EPA analysis of Lieberman-Warner and read their supporting documentation. You can quibble with their analysis if you want, but they are correct.

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By: Trade Jim News » Green Ink: Cap-and-Haggle http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=5154&cpage=1#comment-13516 Trade Jim News » Green Ink: Cap-and-Haggle Fri, 24 Apr 2009 12:38:34 +0000 http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=5154#comment-13516 [...] Roger Pielke Jr. wonders how the energy secretary squares support for cap-and-trade with a call for lower energy prices. Meanwhile, a couple of former DOE officials call for a “realistic” energy policy and warn of [...] [...] Roger Pielke Jr. wonders how the energy secretary squares support for cap-and-trade with a call for lower energy prices. Meanwhile, a couple of former DOE officials call for a “realistic” energy policy and warn of [...]

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By: Green Ink: Cap-and-Haggle - Environmental Capital - WSJ http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=5154&cpage=1#comment-13515 Green Ink: Cap-and-Haggle - Environmental Capital - WSJ Fri, 24 Apr 2009 12:22:58 +0000 http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=5154#comment-13515 [...] Roger Pielke Jr. wonders how the energy secretary squares support for cap-and-trade with a call for lower energy prices. Meanwhile, a couple of former DOE officials call for a [...] Roger Pielke Jr. wonders how the energy secretary squares support for cap-and-trade with a call for lower energy prices. Meanwhile, a couple of former DOE officials call for a

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By: Raven http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=5154&cpage=1#comment-13513 Raven Fri, 24 Apr 2009 06:49:52 +0000 http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=5154#comment-13513 kevin, Electricity is the same no matter how it is generated and there can only be one market price for electricity. If the government taxes coal based electrical plants this will raise the price of the electricity across the board. The higher prices might make some non-emitting sources more viable but these sources are not used today because they are more expensive. This means that the consumer will not see any savings. To make matters worse: if the cap and tax plan actually succeeds in encouraging people to spend money on more expensive energy soucres then the government will lose the carbon tax revenue. The government will then have to replace this revenue by taxing other things. If CO2 is a problem then energy prices much go up and people must accept that everyone will be poorer as a result of the increased costs. This economic reality is unescapable. kevin,

Electricity is the same no matter how it is generated and there can only be one market price for electricity. If the government taxes coal based electrical plants this will raise the price of the electricity across the board. The higher prices might make some non-emitting sources more viable but these sources are not used today because they are more expensive. This means that the consumer will not see any savings.

To make matters worse: if the cap and tax plan actually succeeds in encouraging people to spend money on more expensive energy soucres then the government will lose the carbon tax revenue. The government will then have to replace this revenue by taxing other things.

If CO2 is a problem then energy prices much go up and people must accept that everyone will be poorer as a result of the increased costs. This economic reality is unescapable.

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By: kevin http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=5154&cpage=1#comment-13512 kevin Fri, 24 Apr 2009 04:03:52 +0000 http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=5154#comment-13512 if done properly, cap-trade doesn't raise the price of all fossil sources across the board. in fact, it rewards the most carbon-efficient fossil sources. In the original EPA analysis of Lieberman-Warner (now Boxer-Lieberman-Warner, but essentially the same bill), only coal-based electricity increases in price while other sources actually decline in price from their baseline because of the reward they get from being more carbon-efficient than coal. That said, if liquid fuel is carbon-capped at the refiner and/or importer level, which it likely will be, they have no native efficiency opportunities, so the price will have to increase. Other countries have sidestepped this problem by explicitly leaving transportation out of their carbon regulatory regimes. if done properly, cap-trade doesn’t raise the price of all fossil sources across the board. in fact, it rewards the most carbon-efficient fossil sources. In the original EPA analysis of Lieberman-Warner (now Boxer-Lieberman-Warner, but essentially the same bill), only coal-based electricity increases in price while other sources actually decline in price from their baseline because of the reward they get from being more carbon-efficient than coal. That said, if liquid fuel is carbon-capped at the refiner and/or importer level, which it likely will be, they have no native efficiency opportunities, so the price will have to increase. Other countries have sidestepped this problem by explicitly leaving transportation out of their carbon regulatory regimes.

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By: Jon Frum http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=5154&cpage=1#comment-13510 Jon Frum Fri, 24 Apr 2009 00:48:14 +0000 http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=5154#comment-13510 "More importantly however is that Chu’s answer contradicts the entire point of cap and trade legislation." Rodger provides that quote as if it matters. Contradicting one's self is the very heart of politics. Every day that you get by without being pinned down is a success. If you keep it up until your time in office runs out, they put a statue of you in Washington. “More importantly however is that Chu’s answer contradicts the entire point of cap and trade legislation.”

Rodger provides that quote as if it matters. Contradicting one’s self is the very heart of politics. Every day that you get by without being pinned down is a success. If you keep it up until your time in office runs out, they put a statue of you in Washington.

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By: Chris Schoneveld http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=5154&cpage=1#comment-13509 Chris Schoneveld Fri, 24 Apr 2009 00:31:11 +0000 http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=5154#comment-13509 "The point is to make fossil fuels more expensive and this new expense will motivate efforts to improve efficiency and invest in alternative energy technologies. " Not necessarily. If fossil fuels become more expensive then the development of the huge reserves that are contained in tar sands and oil shales and EOR (enhanced oil recovery) and exploration in deep water and other inhospitable places become more attractive. So supply of fossil fuels will still be there to challenge the ever costly alternatives. “The point is to make fossil fuels more expensive and this new expense will motivate efforts to improve efficiency and invest in alternative energy technologies. ”

Not necessarily. If fossil fuels become more expensive then the development of the huge reserves that are contained in tar sands and oil shales and EOR (enhanced oil recovery) and exploration in deep water and other inhospitable places become more attractive. So supply of fossil fuels will still be there to challenge the ever costly alternatives.

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