Comments on: Climate Change and Reinsurance, Part 2.5 http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=3375 Wed, 29 Jul 2009 22:36:51 -0600 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.1 hourly 1 By: kevin vranes http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=3375&cpage=1#comment-868 kevin vranes Wed, 19 Jan 2005 22:43:43 +0000 http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheusreborn/?p=3375#comment-868 Of course, you might add to the meteorological list (floods, droughts and heat waves) the coming storm over infectious disease and disease vectors. There was/is a logical question to ask: ‘is GHG forcing likely to alter factors affecting human health?’ Although it is has been far from answered, that’s not stopping some from the advocacy-research mindset from making unsupported claims linking West Nile, malaria and other vector-borne diseases with temperature, moisture, precip and CO2 increases. I’ve seen an earnest presentation given of very preliminary, unreviewed results on ragweed and CO2 in urban environments, with the earnest warning to the lay crowd of policy advisors: “It’s not as bad as we thought; it’s worse!” The same presenter went on to make claims about hurricanes and climate change that are coherently disputed in the Chris Landsea posts on this site. I give these thoughts to reinforce Roger’s bottom line #1. In the not-so-distant future, somebody will undoubtedly look to derive health care costs associated with treating climate change-induced human health maladies, without considering that the foundation of their research premise – anthropogenic climate change is leading to noticeable and worrisome changes in human health – is still on the speculative side of rock-solid. To all this I pose a question I’ve been asking myself for a long time: what is the role of our community to “bring down” those making broad, speculative, and often hysterical claims without evidence or, even worse, when the evidence shows otherwise? From my experience, those in our field are not afraid to attack the claims and credibility of the Idso's and Baliunas’ because the latter gleefully fly in the face of what most consider the general consensus. But should scientists be equally strenuous in shouting down those making exaggerated claims from the side the scientist agrees with in principal? This question brings together the Landsea posts with the recent discussion about RealClimate and specifically Roger’s “No free passes” advice (which is essentially the point of the Feynman “Cargo Cult Science” address, right?). Of course, you might add to the meteorological list (floods, droughts and heat waves) the coming storm over infectious disease and disease vectors. There was/is a logical question to ask: ‘is GHG forcing likely to alter factors affecting human health?’ Although it is has been far from answered, that’s not stopping some from the advocacy-research mindset from making unsupported claims linking West Nile, malaria and other vector-borne diseases with temperature, moisture, precip and CO2 increases. I’ve seen an earnest presentation given of very preliminary, unreviewed results on ragweed and CO2 in urban environments, with the earnest warning to the lay crowd of policy advisors: “It’s not as bad as we thought; it’s worse!” The same presenter went on to make claims about hurricanes and climate change that are coherently disputed in the Chris Landsea posts on this site.

I give these thoughts to reinforce Roger’s bottom line #1. In the not-so-distant future, somebody will undoubtedly look to derive health care costs associated with treating climate change-induced human health maladies, without considering that the foundation of their research premise – anthropogenic climate change is leading to noticeable and worrisome changes in human health – is still on the speculative side of rock-solid.

To all this I pose a question I’ve been asking myself for a long time: what is the role of our community to “bring down” those making broad, speculative, and often hysterical claims without evidence or, even worse, when the evidence shows otherwise? From my experience, those in our field are not afraid to attack the claims and credibility of the Idso’s and Baliunas’ because the latter gleefully fly in the face of what most consider the general consensus. But should scientists be equally strenuous in shouting down those making exaggerated claims from the side the scientist agrees with in principal? This question brings together the Landsea posts with the recent discussion about RealClimate and specifically Roger’s “No free passes” advice (which is essentially the point of the Feynman “Cargo Cult Science” address, right?).

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