Check hit out! Mark done know the fyoocher!

Since you obviously know the future, Mark, would you mind sharing with me (only me, no one else), the winning PowerBall numbers for next drawing? I’d appreciate it, thanks.

Ah, well. I see you’re still in certitude mode. Good to see things don’t change much.

Best,

D

“1. If the focus is cat 4/5 storms worldwide since 1970, then yes, Webster et al. show an increase.

2. If the focus is >cat 1 storms, then the answer is no.”

Heh, heh, heh! Touche’! Well struck, sir!

“3. The exchange with EM predated the publication of Webster et al., of course, so it is not referred to there.”

Oh?! Well, that is bizarre, then. “Where is the evidence,” indeed.

“4. On the relationship of trends in hurricane intensities and trends in damages, stay tuned! But by way of a preview, I remain 100% comfortable with the statements in our BAMS letter.”

Well, I’ll be interested to read it. I gotta admit, with Webster et al. on all basins, and Emmanuel in the Atlantic basin, and the fact that SST has risen, and the fact that the earth is getting warmer, and the fact that that’s probably at least partially due to human emissions (and possibly land use changes)…it all seems to line up.

P.S. But I’m tilting at the windmill of trying to point out to at least *someone,* that the ridiculously high “projections”–completely devoid of probabilities, so they can’t be falsified–is the real problem to be dealt with.
….or

P.P.S. Plus, there’s the fact that economic growth in the 21st century is going to be so spectacular that people(/cyborgs) in 2100 will laugh at our concerns about climate change:

http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=399#comment-7950

…But don’t get me started!

Several answers.

1. If the focus is cat 4/5 storms worldwide since 1970, then yes, Webster et al. show an increase.

2. If the focus is >cat 1 storms, then the answer is no.

3. The exchange with EM predated the publication of Webster et al., of course, so it is not referred to there.

4. On the relationship of trends in hurricane intensities and trends in damages, stay tuned! But by way of a preview, I remain 100% comfortable with the statements in our BAMS letter.

You ask, “Where is the evidence that the number of extreme weather events has risen worldwide?”

Doesn’t the Webster et al. paper in Science provide evidence that the number of exteme weather events, in the form of Category 4 and Category 5 hurricanes, have risen worldwide?

Best wishes,
Mark