Comments on: Precipitation and Flood Damage http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=4276 Wed, 29 Jul 2009 22:36:51 -0600 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.1 hourly 1 By: Roger Pielke, Jr. http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=4276&cpage=1#comment-9274 Roger Pielke, Jr. Mon, 10 Dec 2007 08:14:15 +0000 http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheusreborn/?p=4276#comment-9274 Roger, (still problems leaving a comment...I am signed into TypeKey, but Prometheus apparently doesn't think so...) Comment on California Flooding (Dec 6th Precipitation and Flood Damage article): A paper that just recently appeared in Geophysical Research Letters by Florsheim and Dettinger (Florsheim, J.L, and M.D. Dettinger, 2007. Climate and floods still govern California levee breaks. Geophysical Research Letters, 34, L22403, doi:10.1029/2007GL031702) examined flooding in the Sacramento-San Juan River systems of California over the past 150 years or so and concluded that despite "extensive flood control infrastructure developed during the 20th Century" the frequency of flooding (identified as levee breaks) was unchanged-and not because the flood control efforts/expenditures were offsetting climate change-related river flow trends (they checked that). -Chip Knappenberger Roger,

(still problems leaving a comment…I am signed into TypeKey, but Prometheus
apparently doesn’t think so…)

Comment on California Flooding (Dec 6th Precipitation and Flood Damage
article):

A paper that just recently appeared in Geophysical Research Letters by
Florsheim and Dettinger (Florsheim, J.L, and M.D. Dettinger, 2007. Climate
and floods still govern California levee breaks. Geophysical Research
Letters, 34, L22403, doi:10.1029/2007GL031702) examined flooding in the
Sacramento-San Juan River systems of California over the past 150 years or
so and concluded that despite “extensive flood control infrastructure
developed during the 20th Century” the frequency of flooding (identified as
levee breaks) was unchanged-and not because the flood control
efforts/expenditures were offsetting climate change-related river flow
trends (they checked that).

-Chip Knappenberger

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By: Brian S. http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=4276&cpage=1#comment-9273 Brian S. Mon, 10 Dec 2007 07:53:06 +0000 http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheusreborn/?p=4276#comment-9273 Actually, levees do stop floods. Overstating legitimate criticism against structural means for flood protection does nothing for your case. I strongly prefer and professionally advocate for other methods - removing development from riparian buffer zones and the most severe flooding areas - but I don't argue against physics. If you want to consider expense, though, nothing matches the expense of removing all of San Francisco Bay's levees and abandoning all development built behind the levees. If for some reason you wish to discuss non-structural expenses used for flood protection, I expect those expenses will have gone up much faster in the last 50 years. Actually, levees do stop floods. Overstating legitimate criticism against structural means for flood protection does nothing for your case. I strongly prefer and professionally advocate for other methods – removing development from riparian buffer zones and the most severe flooding areas – but I don’t argue against physics.

If you want to consider expense, though, nothing matches the expense of removing all of San Francisco Bay’s levees and abandoning all development built behind the levees.

If for some reason you wish to discuss non-structural expenses used for flood protection, I expect those expenses will have gone up much faster in the last 50 years.

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By: Roger Pielke, Jr. http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=4276&cpage=1#comment-9272 Roger Pielke, Jr. Sun, 09 Dec 2007 20:42:31 +0000 http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheusreborn/?p=4276#comment-9272 Brian S.- Here is a graph for Louisiana 1955-1999 (and just FYI, note that Katrina in 2005 would not be classified a flood under the NWS methods, but instead under hurricane damage): http://www.sip.ucar.edu/sourcebook/flood/lafld.jsp The notion that flood protection reduces flood damages is Fallacy #3 in the following paper: Pielke Jr., R.A., 1999: Nine fallacies of floods. Climatic Change, 42, 413-438. http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/admin/publication_files/resource-78-1999.15.pdf New Orleans, Louisiana would seem to be exhibit A in that argument. And I discussed this issue at length in this post: http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheus/archives/disasters/000670does_disaster_mitiga.html Thanks! Brian S.-

Here is a graph for Louisiana 1955-1999 (and just FYI, note that Katrina in 2005 would not be classified a flood under the NWS methods, but instead under hurricane damage):
http://www.sip.ucar.edu/sourcebook/flood/lafld.jsp

The notion that flood protection reduces flood damages is Fallacy #3 in the following paper:

Pielke Jr., R.A., 1999: Nine fallacies of floods. Climatic Change, 42, 413-438.
http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/admin/publication_files/resource-78-1999.15.pdf

New Orleans, Louisiana would seem to be exhibit A in that argument. And I discussed this issue at length in this post:

http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheus/archives/disasters/000670does_disaster_mitiga.html

Thanks!

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By: Brian S. http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=4276&cpage=1#comment-9271 Brian S. Sun, 09 Dec 2007 20:03:46 +0000 http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheusreborn/?p=4276#comment-9271 I'm very active with the Santa Clara Valley Water District. The District spends a great deal of money on flood protection, and expects it will have to spend a lot more in the near future because of climate change, mostly due to rebuilding and raising levees along San Francisco Bay. All these expenditures are missing from your argument. I expect a chart showing expenditures on flood protection would show a significant rise over the last 50 years. Your charts only show half of the equation. Incidentally, it would be interesting to see a similar chart for Louisiana. I’m very active with the Santa Clara Valley Water District. The District spends a great deal of money on flood protection, and expects it will have to spend a lot more in the near future because of climate change, mostly due to rebuilding and raising levees along San Francisco Bay.

All these expenditures are missing from your argument. I expect a chart showing expenditures on flood protection would show a significant rise over the last 50 years. Your charts only show half of the equation.

Incidentally, it would be interesting to see a similar chart for Louisiana.

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