Inside the Greenhouse

Stressors on Coral Reef Ecosystems

Motivation

The goal of the Ecosystem Sensitivity Analysis activity is to investigate the relative magnitude of various causes of environmental change in order to better understand the relationship between changing ecosystem functions and the priorities of the ecosystem science research portfolio. Researchers have identified a number of other threats to coral reef systems that may prove to be significant challenges, such as over-fishing, anthropogenic siltation, and nutrient deposition (Cortes & Risk, 1985; Knowlton, 2001). By assessing the relative magnitude of each of these potential threats, we hope not only to provide valuable information to ecosystem managers, but we will also generate information that will be useful as input for a comparison of ecological research priorities with the severity and magnitude of potential threats.

Coral reef ecosystems were selected for this project because scientists have claimed in the literature that climate change may present a challenge that could lead to extinction of hard coral species (e.g., Glynn, 1993; Harvell et al., 1999). Others suggest corals will be able to adapt to climate change and that the ecosystems will adjust to new climatic conditions (Hughes et al., 2003). These strong claims about ecosystem stressors create a good case study to investigate the extent to which scientific understanding of ecosystem stressors influences the ecology research portfolio.

Implementation

To be able to integrate the diverse types of stressors, mechanisms of change, and types of change, this study will utilize both quantitative and qualitative methods to evaluate the relative importance of ecosystem stressors. Quantitative predictions from the literature will be compiled and summarized in a draft characterization of the stressors, which will then be vetted by researchers active in the subject ecosystems. The final ranking will be informed by the qualitative output of focus groups designed to integrate the professional opinion of academics studying the select coral reefs with the available literature. We are working with the conveners of the 11th International Coral Reef Symposium in Ft. Lauderdale, FL to host the focus group exercises in conjunction with that event in July, 2008. If necessary, a second workshop will be held in November or December, 2008.

Simultaneously, we are using bibliometric and interview techniques to investigate both how the research portfolio regarding coral reef ecosystems has evolved over the past several decades and what factors drive changes in research priorities. This project will allow us to asses to what extent ecological research priorities are responsive to scientific understandings of stressor severity and other ways of prioritizing research.

Goals

By the end of the project, we will have a clear characterization of the current scientific understandings of potential stressors on coral reef ecosystems. The stressor ranking research combined with the work on the changing focus of ecosystem researchers will contribute to the evaluation of current priorities in environmental research and the design of a supply-and-demand reconciliation exercise for decision-making on ecosystem management.

Cortes, J. N., & Risk, M. J. (1985). A Reef under Siltation Stress: Cahuita, Costa Rica. Bulletin of Marine Science, 36(2), 339-356.

Glynn, P. W. (1993). Coral Reef Bleaching: Ecological Perspectives. Coral Reefs, 12(1), 1.

Harvell, C. D., Kim, K., Burkholder, J. M., Colwell, R. R., Epstein, P. R., Grimes, D. J., et al. (1999). Emerging Marine Diseases--Climate Links and Anthropogenic Factors. Science, 285(5433), 1505-1510.

Hughes, T. P., Baird, A. H., Bellwood, D. R., Card, M., Connolly, S. R., Folke, C., et al. (2003). Climate Change, Human Impacts, and the Resilience of Coral Reefs. Science, 301(5635), 929-933.

Knowlton, N. (2001). The Future of Coral Reefs. PNAS, 98(10), 5419-5425.