Number 32, February 2002

Research Highlight

How Well Did the 2001 Hurricane Season Forecasters do? Once Again, Pretty Good!

With the close of the 2001 hurricane season, the forecast team of William M. Gray, Christopher W. Landsea, Eric Blake, Paul W. Mielke, Jr., and Kenneth J. Berry (with advice and assistance from Philip Klotzbach and William Thorson) reports that its June and August forecasts verified quite well but December and April’s predictions did not do as well. The 2001 season saw a total of 15 named storms and 9 hurricanes; the team’s August forecast predicted 12 named storms and 7 hurricanes. The following chart illustrates the team’s August track record since 1990 in predicting the annual number of hurricanes as compared to climatology. For complete details see the team’s report.

The team recently released its early season forecast for the 2002 hurricane season. It is predicting an active season with 13 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes. There is an 86% probability of a major hurricane making landfall for the entire U.S.coast line, which compares to an average of 52% over the last century. For more details see the forecast.