Number 33, April 2002

WeatherZine News

It's Hard to Beat Climatology

Aquila Energy recently announced the winner of its summer 2001 seasonal forecasting competition. Here is one reaction:

Howdy all,

I don't how many of you got the letter from Aquila Energy announcing the winner of the Summer 2001 Seasonal Forecasting Competition. The lucky winner won $50,000 for beating climatology in his six 3-month forecasts.

I was struck by a couple of things in the letter. Aquila noted that only 1 out of 55 people were more skillful than climatology. This seems to me to indicate that climatology is the real winner! We ought to be able to use this to show that climate data, properly used, can give very useful information to the public for planning purposes.

The other thing that struck me was that it seems highly likely to me that by pure chance at least one of these people should have beaten climatology anyway. So I guess [the winner] may have had real skill, or may have just won the statistics lottery last year.

Pam Knox
pknox@engr.uga.edu

Data Quality Act Could Have Far-reaching Impact on Environmental Regulation

In December 2000, Congress passed a little-known provision in its budget known as the Data Quality Act. The Act, which will go into effect next October 1, requires every federal agency to establish "guidelines ensuring and maximizing the quality, objectivity, utility and integrity of information (including statistical information)." All agencies must provide a petition process to correct inaccuracies.

Some critics of the Act are concerned that it will be used to impede environmental information and regulation. For example, the Act has already been cited as grounds for withdrawing the National Assessment on Climate Change because the report is allegedly based on flawed computer models. The National Academy of Sciences recently launched a project in which federal agencies that are required to develop guidelines to implement the Act can share their views and hear ideas and concerns from external communities.

For more information:

• Center for Regulatory Effectiveness website- the organization that authored the provision
  
• National Academy of Sciences, Ensuring the Quality of Information Disseminated by the Federal Government project
  
• Office of Management and Budget, Guidelines for Ensuring and Maximizing the Quality, Objectivity, Utility, and Integrity of Information Disseminated by Federal Agencies
  
• Andrew C. Revkin, "Law Revises Standards for Scientific Study," New York Times March 21, 2002
  

Special Session at Upcoming AGU Meeting

A special session will be held at the upcoming AGU meeting (Washington DC, May 28-31, 2002) entitled "Policy-Relevant vs. Policy-Driven Atmospheric Chemistry Research: What Role Do Policy Applications Play in Determining Questions, Methods, and Funding?"

The session should be a great opportunity to discuss how the consumers of scientific information affect the scientific process. An exciting list of invited speakers is lined up including Praveen Amar (NESCAUM, Northeast States for Coordinated Air Use Management), Daniel Jacob (Harvard), Bill Hooke (American Meteorological Society), Roger Pielke, Jr. (University of Colorado), Cynthia Rosenzweig (NASA GISS), Dan Sarewitz (Columbia), and others. Questions to be addressed include the following: (1) When do funding priorities shape the science, and when do the scientific questions shape funding priorities? (2) How do agencies that need scientific information use policy-driven studies versus external research with varying degrees of policy relevance? (3) How have scientists adapted their research goals or program structures to meet the needs of the policy community?

Click here for more information.

Bureau of Labor Statistics Releases 2002-03
Edition of Occupational Outlook Handbook

The Bureau of Labor Statistics recently announced the release of the 2002-3 edition of its Occupational Outlook Handbook. The handbook, a nationally recognized source of career information, describes what workers do on the job, working conditions, the training and education needed, earnings, and expected job prospects in a wide range of occupations. It is revised every two years.

The Handbook's entry for "Atmospheric Scientists" contains the following information about expected job prospects:

"Employment of atmospheric scientists is projected to increase about as fast as the average for all occupations through 2010, but prospective atmospheric scientists may face competition if the number of degrees awarded in atmospheric science and meteorology remain near current levels."

"The NWS has no plans to increase the number of weather stations or the number of meteorologists in existing stations for many years. Employment of meteorologists in other Federal agencies is expected to decline slightly as efforts to reduce the Federal Government workforce continue. On the other hand, job opportunities for atmospheric scientists in private industry are expected to be better than in the Federal Government over the 2000-10 period. As research leads to continuing improvements in weather forecasting, demand should grow for private weather consulting firms to provide more detailed information than has formerly been available, especially to weather-sensitive industries. Farmers, commodity investors, radio and television stations, and utilities, transportation, and construction firms can greatly benefit from additional weather information more closely targeted to their needs than the general information provided by the National Weather Service."