A Few Reactions to the Bonn Dialogue on the FCCC

May 17th, 2006

Posted by: Roger Pielke, Jr.

This week the International Institute for Sustainable Development continues its invaluable service of providing summaries of international meetings and negotiations by providing a summary of the “UNFCCC dialogue on long-term cooperative action.” Here are a few reactions to that summary, focused mainly on issues of adaptation. The IISD summary suggests that serious problems remain with consideration of adaptation under the FCCC and that some developing countries are not satisfied:

ADAPTATION: Tanzania and the Philippines said adaptation should have the same status as mitigation, expressing concerns that it had not yet been seriously addressed. Tuvalu underscored adaptation as a crucial issue, and called for urgent action rather than studies or pilot projects, implementation of UNFCCC Article 4.4 (developed country support for adaptation for vulnerable developing countries) and a process to ensure a rapid response to help countries suffering damage. The Philippines highlighted the need for innovative ways of financing. Egypt noted that mitigation efforts in developing countries are receiving more support than adaptation measures through the CDM.

We have discussed this subject frequently. The FCCC has a built-in bias against adaptation and characterizes it as being in opposition to mitigation. Bizarrely, under the FCCC adaptation has costs but not benefits (and the IPCC follows this cooking of the cost-benefit books), because under its view of the world adaptation would be unnecessary if climate change could be prevented. Under this way of thinking, adaptation projects reflect costs that would be avoided with mitigation, hence, preventing adaptation represents a benefit of mitigation. Think about that for a minute, and ask yourself, how can adaptation and mitigation really be complements under the FCCC if the case for the latter depends in no small part on preventing the former?

Under the FCCC adaptation to climate change means something very specific, it does not mean adaptation to climate, but only to those marginal effects of climate changes directly attributable to greenhouse gas emissions. If this strikes you as unrealistic and confusing, you’d be right. The reality is that in many, if not most, places in developed and developing countries adaptation to climate (broadly, not just the marginal effects of GHGs on climate) makes good sense as societal is extremely vulnerable to the impacts of climate, whatever the underlying causes. As we have stated here many times, it is scientifically untenable to tease out the GHG contribution to human disasters like Katrina. It is nonsensical to try to implement policies that address only those marginal impacts of GHGs, rather than the root causes of disasters themselves, which lie primarily in societal vulnerability.

We discussed this sort of nonsense following COP-10 in December, 2004 based on another IISD report which included the following telling explanation of why it is that developing countries have difficulty receiving funding for adaptation projects:

. . . adaptation projects are generally built on, or embedded in, larger national or local development projects and, therefore, the funding by the GEF would only cover a portion of the costs. In other words, if a country seeks funding for a project on flood prevention, the GEF would only be able to finance a portion proportional to the additional harm that floods have caused or will cause as a result of climate change, and the rest would have to be co-financed by some other body. The plea from LDCs, particularly the SIDS, lies precisely on this paradox, in that even if funds are available in the LDC Fund, their difficulty of finding adequate co-financing, and the costly and cumbersome calculation of the additional costs, renders the financial resources in the LDC Fund, in practice, almost inaccessible.

At this weeks meeting a comment by the UK summarized by the IISD suggests that little has changed in this regard:

The UK identified some cross-cutting themes, including financing and scientific uncertainty, which is particularly problematic for adaptation.

Why is scientific uncertainty problematic for adaptation? Because unless there is a way to attribute the impacts of GHG-caused climate change on developing countries, under the FCCC there is no vehicle for action, as the FCCC is not an all-purpose framework for reducing vulnerabilities to the effects of climate. How ironic is this? Adaptation is all about decision making under uncertainty and preparing for a future that is unknown. So in the face of uncertainties adaptation should make good sense, because its benefits are broad. Yet, under the FCCC the arbitrary rules have been set up in such a way as to mostly exclude adaptation as a policy response.

Of course, this gets back to the fact that the FCCC has been and continues to be a vehicle for changes to global energy policies and considerations of adaptation simply get in the way. Approaching climate change in this fashion makes about as much sense as telling someone that because we don’t know when they will be struck by heart disease we can provide little assistance helping them to adopt of a healthy lifestyle.

To be fair, I have many friends and colleagues who are far more sanguine about the prospects for adaptation under the FCCC, and are willing to debate this point strenuously with me when I raise comments like those above. They use words like “mainstreaming” and “sustainable development” to make their case, and cite Article 4.4 of the FCCC, among others. I respect their views and perhaps our differences in views have a bit of glass half full/half empty about them. But even so I have been convinced for some time now that the FCCC is much more of an obstacle to effective action on adaptation than a facilitator. Much of its efforts on adaptation seem to be an effort to provide a fig leaf of competence in order gloss over what increasingly appears to be a fatal flaw in the framework. The recent report from the IISD provides no reason for me to change my views.

Until the very core of the FCCC is opened up for discussion (and by core I mean Article 2 and its gerrymandered definition of climate change), the bias against adaptation is likely to persist, and adaptation policies will continue to be presented as counter to the goals of mitigation and will continue to be considered in that manner in formal negotiations (statements to the contrary notwithstanding). If this is anywhere close to the mark then people will suffer and die more than they might otherwise because of the words used to frame the climate debate as an issue of energy policy, and energy policy only.

For further reading:

A short essay:

Pielke, Jr., R. A., 2004. What is Climate Change?, Issues in Science and Technology, Summer, 1-4. (PDF)

Peer-reviewed studies with lots of detail:

Pielke, Jr., R.A., 2005. Misdefining “climate change”: consequences for science and action, Environmental Science & Policy, Vol. 8, pp. 548-561. (PDF)

Pielke, Jr., R. A., 1998. Rethinking the Role of Adaptation in Climate Policy. Global Environmental Change, 8(2), 159-170. (PDF)

11 Responses to “A Few Reactions to the Bonn Dialogue on the FCCC”

    1
  1. Daniel Collins Says:

    Disregard for the advantages of adaptation is hurdle. But what of those climate change impacts to which adaptation is untenable? Sea level rise wouldn’t just bring worse storm surges. The people of Tuvulu backing their bags is more a sign of defeat than of adaptation. I would be surprised if the Everglades’ hydrological functioning were sustained even if it wasn’t inundated (and I doubt restoration would be funded at that stage anyhow). How can we buffer against changes in biogeography, and extinction at the margins, except by chosing not to value the related ecosystem services or species any more?

    Both mitigation and adaptation would require a set of lifestyle and technical changes, but it’s not clear to me which set of changes would be easier to swallow.

  2. 2
  3. Roger Pielke, Jr. Says:

    Daniel- Thanks for your comments. Though I am unclear anout what it means to say that “adaptation is untenable”. In a situation where preventing any change is impossible, adaptation is by definition the only option and it will occur in some form or another.

    Sea level rise is a good example of this. It is typically discussed in terms of how much the sea level will change, but almost never (except amoung a few specialists) in terms of how much of this change is avoidable via mitigation, on what time scales, and with what certainty. According to the current consensus, there is already a significant commitment to climate change in the works regardless of future mitigation.

    This doesn;t mean we forget about mitigation, but it does mean that we must focus on adaptation. We might mitigate, but we will adapt. That is certain, 100%. Given this reality, it is amazing the the FCCC is structurally biased against adaptation.

    Thanks!

  4. 3
  5. Daniel Collins Says:

    By “untenable” I meant that some things you just can’t adapt to (too great an environmental stress), and so the only option (if there is one at all) is to mitigate. I agree that some amount of adaptation is necessary, in part because some amount of climate change (from GHG and land use change) cannot now be prevented. Removing either response from the portfolio is naive. Cheers.

  6. 4
  7. James Annan Says:

    Daniel,

    Within our lifetimes, it is more a question of mitigation being untenable (the changes are going to happen, whatever realistic attempts we try to make) and the only option (if there is one at all) is to adapt!

    That depends a bit on “lifetime” of course, and the mitigation still might have significant benefits for future generations – I’m not really arguing that mitigation is a complete waste of time.

    Maybe some would argue that the current/committed changes are not significant enough to actually require any adaptation – after all, we are still some way short of the “dangerous” threshold. This seems like a possible mindset given the attitude that +2C is “dangerous” and avoiding this is the main (only) priority. But I don’t know, I’m just guessing here.

  8. 5
  9. Eli Rabett Says:

    Adaptation is not the only choice. You can die. Your family can die. Your situation can deteriorate to the point it is not worth living (see Somalia, Iraq, dystopia, etc.). Happens frequently to individuals during major changes.

    Adaptation is not a magic wand that makes everything good again, and sometimes it is not possible, certainly not for individuals, and often enough not possible for populations. Advocates of adaptation frequently think that it is a strategy for others and they will not have to take part. Simply to say adapt and go not further is a response of the ethically challenged. Adapt how, at what cost, in money and lives and quality of life.

    Avoiding situations where dire choices have to be made is advisable, but evidently not to those who would rather not confront necessary changes to their own behavior.

  10. 6
  11. Hans Erren Says:

    Tuvalu, Tanzania and the Philippines do not have the possibility to mitigate. Adaptation improves infrastucture and has direct economic benefits.

    I lived in Tanzania. Simply improving drainage during the rainy season in Dar es Salaam gives less flooding, less malaria, less damage.

    http://home.casema.nl/errenwijlens/family/regentijd1.jpg

  12. 7
  13. Dano Says:

    Eli,

    Adaptation is just fine if you can afford to pay for the changes. One might even find…er…opportunities for business ideas in the change if you have capital to invest and a business acumen. Lots of money will be…er…floating around out there waiting to be made.

    Best,

    D

  14. 8
  15. Hans Erren Says:

    like…er…here Dano?
    http://www.waternetonline.ihe.nl/docs/Papers2003/Warfsa-WaterNet%20Theme%203/Improvement%20of%20Water%20Management%20in%20Flood%20Prone%20Areas.pdf

    Problems Encountered in Dar es Salaam

    Dar es Salaam the former capital city of Tanzania is situated near coast of Indian Ocean with a total population of 2497940 (Source: http://www.tanzania.go.tz/2002cencus.html). There are rivers like Kibangu, Ubungo, Sinza, Msimbazi, and Mtoni within the city. Dar es Salaam city is facing a problem of floods and shortage of water and also pollution due to urbanization influx, increasing squatter settlements and lack of resources to facilitate proper functioning. Due to poor budget allocation disposal of solid wastes, storm water drainages and discharge of wastewater are poorly managed. This has resulted into over flooding of the roads in the city causing problems for the traffic. The urban rivers, which are a source of drinking water, are also used for sewage and industrial waste disposal and rubbish dump. Catchment area of the Ruvu river, the main source of Dar es Salaam water supply is not well managed. Lands that should have been left unused, because they are wetlands contributing flow into the river or are forest reserves or have other ecological or hydrological significances have been invaded by dwellers and are being cultivated. So the Ruvu River has taken a different course, which seems to cause environmental problems.
    Due to poor planning of housing development and bureaucracy by the Ministry of Lands and Human Settlements, the people settle in valleys, waste lands and swamps in Dar es Salaam city. Also due to inadequate drainage, these areas are flooded every now and then causing hazards to people and houses during rainy seasons, which is made worse by poor sitting of dwelling houses i.e. in flood plains.

    see also:
    http://www.ippmedia.com/ipp/guardian/2006/05/11/66165.html

  16. 9
  17. Dano Says:

    My point is about asymmetric distribution, and thank you for helping me make my point Hans.

    Best,

    D

  18. 10
  19. Hans Erren Says:

    ? I don’t get your asymmetric distribution point Dano.

    Dar es Salaam is a fast growing town with growing water problems, you don’t want to spent FCCC money on this?

    Please explain.

  20. 11
  21. Dano Says:

    Sorry Hans, my terminology was too wonky.

    Selected areas will be preferentially assisted to mitigate for climate change. Capital will be distributed according to the age-old ways we do things, which means that not all will get.

    Best,

    D