Here is a very thoughtful comment sent in by email on the ““consistent with chronicles”. I haven’t identified the author, since he didn’t ask me to post it. But it is worth a read about how climate science is received by one rancher in West Tennessee. I appreciate the feedback.

I am neither an academic nor a scientist. I raise cattle in West Tennessee. I came across your ruminations on the uses and meaning (or lack thereof) of the expression “consistent with” in environmental debates. I enjoyed it very much. You make some very valid, interesting, and to your critics irritating points.

You hear “consistent with” employed in other circumstances as well, as for example when a prosecuting attorney says certain evidence is “consistent with” his or her theory of who committed a crime. However a good defense attorney will almost surely point out that the evidence in question is “consistent with” other explanations as well. Thus, at least in legal dealings, the “consistent with” argument doesn’t get one very far.

Which brings me to my point. You’re absolutely right to ask what kinds of evidence would be inconsistent with environmental theories, for just the reasons you outline, but of equal or perhaps greater importance is the question “With what other theories or explanations is the same evidence consistent?” It is not so terribly unusual for facts or evidence to be consistent with multiple theories, even ones that contradict one another. I’m clearly not qualified to judge, but could the cited evidence also be “consistent with” environmental theories involving sunspot activity, the Gulf Stream, el Nino, or lord knows what else?

There’s another problem I see with the “consistent with” construction: it never addresses the issue of probability. One sees this frequently with the use of “possible.” For many folks the claim that something, no matter how implausible, is “possible” is enough to end a discussion. The mere theoretical possibility of something is to their minds proof of its reality. And the truth is it’s virtually impossible to prove, especially to such people, that something is impossible. The best one can do is assess probabilities. However, to the true believer, even the highest statistical improbability carries little if any weight. The same, I think, is true for those who offer the “consistent with” argument. Although to their minds they may be equivalent, “consistent with” is not the same thing as “equal to,” just as “possible” is not the same thing as “actual.”

My personal feeling is that “consistent with” is a hedge term that has about as much meaning, and carries about as much weight, as what we here in West Tennessee call a WAG, or wild ass guess. The number of things a thing can be “consistent with” is so large as to rob the expression of meaning, or communicative value. If my veterinarian looked at one of my cows and informed me that her swollen belly was “consistent with” her being pregnant, I’m not sure I’d find that of much value, as it’s also “consistent with” a number of other things, some benign, some fatal.

“Consistent with” doesn’t help me make decisions on the farm. With regards to the much more vast and consequential issue of global weather predictions, “consistent with” is to me about as useful as teats on a bull.

Again, you produced a fine article and I enjoyed reading it. Keep pushing environmentalist towards honesty and clarity. A very great deal is at stake, as I’m sure you know.