Let Us Not Forget About Carbon

April 27th, 2009

Posted by: Roger Pielke, Jr.

For years with respect to climate policy, I have argued that adaptation needs to be treated as a complement to mitigation. Yet often the mere mention of adaptation is enough to get mitigation advocates in a tizzy, simply because you are talking about climate policy but not about carbon. A good example of this myopia can be found in an article last week in the FT by Fiona Harvey on malaria, as part of a special section on World Malaria Day. The article explains that malaria is not primarily an issue of human caused climate change:

But contrary to what many people expect, the spread of malaria is not a simple result of warmer climates. Until recently, forms of malaria were to be found in many areas – from Russia to the UK – that were far from hot. Some of these forms were less virulent than the forms prevalent in the tropics, but were nevertheless problematic.

Malaria was eradicated from those areas in a variety of ways, most recently by concentrated human health programmes centred on the use of insecticides, but also by changes in human behaviour and increasing prosperity – the draining of wetlands and better sanitation, for instance.

Kevin Lafferty, of the US Geological Survey, argues – also in Ecology – that the newly suitable areas for diseases such as malaria will tend to be in more affluent regions where medicines are in widespread use and can more readily combat the problem. He cites model estimations that the most dangerous kind of malaria will gain 23m human hosts outside of its current range by the year 2050, but will lose 25m hosts in its current range. The recent history of malarial eradication in some prosperous areas provides evidence for this, he says. “The dramatic contraction of malaria during a century of warming suggests that economic forces might be just as important as climate in determining pathogen ranges,” Mr Lafferty says.

“If we over-emphasise the role of climate at the expense of other factors that drive disease dynamics, we may be missing the forest for the trees.”

Then, perhaps out of concern that while reading this heresy we may have forgotten the importance of mitigation policies, Harvey reminds us to keep our focus with the following kludge of an analogy:

If that view is correct, there is no inevitability about the spread of malaria as the result of a warming climate – just as there is no inevitability that the worst effects of global warming will be felt if we can cut greenhouse gas emissions immediately.

Apparently not even malaria is allowed to have its own day.

4 Responses to “Let Us Not Forget About Carbon”

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  1. Jon Frum Says:

    Just another example of how rare clear thinking really is. In fact, college faculties are full of such people, who know how to “do” school, but can’t think their way out of a paper bag. You can lead a student to a logic class, but you can’t make them think.

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  3. dean Says:

    But there has been success in eradicating malaria in many temperate regions, but in almost no tropical regions. Malaria may exist in colder climates – when it isn’t cold, i.e. the summer.

    The point is that it is much easier to eradicate malaria when there is a season in which mosquitoes cannot live. This gives controlling regimens a free period of time to plan when the mosquitoes can’t come back at you.

    So while climate is not the sole factor in diseases like this, a broadening of regions with year-round livable conditions for mosquitoes is likely to mean greater challenges in controlling those diseases there.

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  5. Mark Bahner Says:

    The dramatic contraction of malaria during a century of warming suggests that economic forces might be just as important as climate in determining pathogen ranges,” Mr Lafferty says.

    He must be British. They’re masters of understatement.

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  7. Mark Bahner Says:

    Hi,

    The first statement in the Summary of the WHO Malaria 2008 report is interesting:

    http://www.who.int/malaria/wmr2008/malaria2008.pdf

    “There were an estimated 247 million malaria cases among 3.3 billion people at risk in 2006, causing nearly a million deaths, mostly of children under 5 years. 109 countries were endemic for malaria in 2008, 45 within the WHO African region.”

    But if one goes to Table 3.1, one sees that the number of reported deaths worldwide is only 161,000…and the number of estimated deaths is 881,000.

    So the substantial majority of those “nearly a million deaths” are estimated deaths, not reported deaths.