Science and the Recession – Too Early to Detect Some Trends
December 17th, 2008Posted by: admin
We can surmise some likely science-related outcomes from the current economic recession already. Government budgets are hit; construction projects wil stop, slow down, or be postponed; endowment performance declines; etc. Traditionally, many people will return to school, or delay entering the workforce by continuing their schooling, in light of a recession. Chris Mooney, however, jumps the gun in this Science Progress column by suggesting that the anticipated increases in enrollment haven’t materialized.
The recession ‘officially’ started in the last quarter of 2007, so a boost in entrants for this fall is a possible outcome of the conventional wisdom. However, that would presume that these applicants were so tuned into the economy that they turned around applications fast enough to be ready to enter by the following fall. Given how irrational and dysfunctional the current collapses have been, there’s nothing to suggest that rational choices to gain more schooling would necessarily increase. So why Mooney would expect a boost in enrollment or applicants so soon after the realization of the recession sets in escapes me.
Mooney focuses on applicants, and manages to find a mixed bag. He’s too early. I don’t think it dawned on a lot of people how bad it was until this past summer at the earliest. If a boost in student populations is going to be connected to the economic downturn, we are probably a year out from finding any significant trends.
But Mooney manages to salvage the piece through his interview with Debra Stewart, President of the Council of Graduate Schools. She points out many reasons why there may not be new students flocking to universities to shelter this financial storm. Tighter credit, diminishing state support, and general concern that a job might not be waiting after graduation are all unique to this particular crisis. This is the paragraph to remember from Mooney’s post.
December 17th, 2008 at 8:31 pm
I can tell you that our grad program has record applicants for fall, 2009, overwhelmingly so.
December 18th, 2008 at 6:56 am
The dating of the rescession from a year ago is so unprecedented as to be bizarre. Given that the economy was still growing, I don’t understand how applicants would have had any reason to perceive economic downturn until there was actual evidence of one. The only potential applicants who should have been expected to react to the downturn would be those who were in a position to have made such a decision in the last few months.
December 18th, 2008 at 11:51 am
To highlight another problem with these early claims, Roger, is there any way to know how many of those applicants are applying due to the recession, in part or in whole?
December 18th, 2008 at 12:11 pm
No, not without asking. I have thought that the uptick means that word is getting out on our stellar education and the incredible placements of our grads
More seriously, if the labor market goes south grad schools will almost by definiation see an increase in applicants.
At the same time, there is no shortage in production:
http://www.nsf.gov/statistics/infbrief/nsf09307/nsf09307.pdf
December 18th, 2008 at 12:21 pm
Mooney was trying to raise the notion that the aphorism Roger mentions – university applications increase – may not hold true this time around. That he made a bad hash out of it is on him. It’s still a valid question worth tracking.
What smart universities would do, if they have the resources, is to promote their programs toward mid-level/mid-career professionals, as many of them may find themselves without a job in the next couple of years. But since that appears to run completely antithetical to the ethos of most research programs, I won’t hold my breath.