Pielke Sr. and Jr. Profiled in Nature

March 29th, 2006

Posted by: Roger Pielke, Jr.

Here is a link to the article.

8 Responses to “Pielke Sr. and Jr. Profiled in Nature”

  1. Chip Knappenberger Says:

    Now I know that Nature has totally lost it! :^)

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  3. Dano Says:

    Nice puff piece. Are they making nice for some reason?


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  5. Lubos Motl Says:

    Congratulations, you were painted as Jesus Christ and His father. ;-)

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  7. William Connolley Says:

    Congrats on the appearence. I blogged it, of course.

    I don’t understand “neither father nor son thinks that predicting global average climate trends is possible”. Do you really believe that? RP Sr has posted an ambiguous comment on my blog, so I don’t know whether he supports it or not. Did you say that, or is its Natures inaccurate paraphrase?

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  9. Steve Hemphill Says:

    Predicting climate trends will be possible after figuring out all the specific biota responses, circulation changes from land use changes, quantify clould influences, black carbon effecxts, etc…

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  11. Roger Pielke, Jr. Says:


    Thanks. Overall I think that the author did a nice job, though that was one of two sentences that I’d quibble with, but I think that most readers would understand. That sentence does not accurately reflect my views, and I don’t think my father’s either. I chalk it up to a situation of too much subtlety for the available few words, which probably has more to do with the complexity of the issues rather than anything else.

    A direct reply to your question:

    Of course it is possible to predict global average climate trends. I’m not clear on what is actually implied by saying that it is not possible. I am sure my father would same something with a great deal of subtlety about how _accurate_ prediction in unlikely without considering the full spectrum of first-order effects. And of course a lot more could be said (and has) about climate prediction and its uses.

    Also, FYI I co-edited a whole book on “prediction,” which includes a chapter by Steve Rayner (now at Oxford) on climate change, and Dan Sarewitz and I have written extensively on this subject. For instance:

    Pielke, Jr., R.A., 2003: The role of models in prediction for decision, Chapter 7, pp. 113-137 in C. Canham and W. Lauenroth (eds.), Understanding Ecosystems: The Role of Quantitative Models in Observations, Synthesis, and Prediction, Princeton University Press, Princeton, N.J.


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  13. William Connolley Says:

    Hi Roger, thanks for that reply.

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  15. The Post-Normal Times - Perspectives on Environmental Science and Policy Decisions Says:

    Difficult science – in a parallel universe

    For the sake of expedience, I put up Jerry’s comments in the last post without much pause for reflection as I was absorbed by other things at the moment, one of which was the seminar on the Crooked Timber blog…