I’ll leave predictions to Roger.  With a new year, Congress, Administration, etc., there are a few stories to follow for science and technology policy in the coming year.  By no means a comprehensive list, here are a few things I’ll be monitoring:

The FY 2009 Budget – yes, we are already three months into the new fiscal year, but the federal government is currently operating under a continuing resolution set to expire at the end of March.  Ordinarily an administration would not have so much influence on the federal budget so early (they ordinarily would get to present their first budget for the fiscal year that starts almost 9 months after they enter office).  To what extent science and technology funding and support gets shafted in this budget will give some early indication of where the administration will likely focus its attentions.  How the Congress reacts to the Administration’s budget will also give some hint about how the Congress will support (or not) the new president.

The Stimulus Package(s) – There will likely be some effort to have science and technology support inserted into the stimulus packages advanced by the new administration.  My inkling is that a two-prong strategy might present the best possibilities.  First will be the traditional efforts to carve out a science and technology specific piece of the stimulus.  As science and technology advocates are generally ineffective at these campaigns, I suspect the returns here will be limited.  What stands a better chance may be some effort to leverage an emphasis on infrastructure with the potential of science and technology to be more integrated with infrastructure, either for monitoring, general improvements, or some combination of the two.  Denigrating infrastructure support as just ‘public works’ is a misguided strategy.

Additional Appointments – Scientific and technical positions don’t end with the President’s science adviser.  The National Science Foundation Director has two years left on his term, but the Director of the National Institutes of Health is a vacant position.  The Surgeon General also needs to be appointed, and if the administration is serious about revamping the President’s Council of Advisers on Science and Technology, there may be more new faces to join the Council in the coming months.  How the science and research offices of various agencies will be used depends in part on their leadership.  For example, will Ray Orbach remain as head of the Office of Science, or will Energy Secretary designate Chu be so hands on that another person might be a better fit?  How quickly these positions are filled will also suggest whether the administration is concerned with all of science, or simply focused on energy and climate.

Science in Other Agencies – By other I am referring to those agencies that aren’t typically considered science agencies.  In other words, everything but NASA, NIST, NSF, NIH, and the science arms of the Departments of Defense and Energy.  With the added emphasis the new administration will place on energy and climate solutions, look to two Departments not often considered in science and technology policy discussions: Agriculture and Transportation.  The appointments announced for both Departments are relatively conventional (former Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack and retiring Representative Ray LaHood), but their buy-in to the administration’s agenda for alternative energy and climate change initiatives is important to their success.

Again, this was just a partial list, and I consciously avoided more obvious picks.