Last week I argued that the offset provisions in the various versions of the Waxman Markey bill were likely to allow the US to continue its business as usual carbon dioxide emissions, making the idea of a “cap” a charade. Congressman Rick Boucher (D-VA) said much the same (emphasis added):

[Congress will] provide two billion tons of offset each year during the life of the program. Those offsets would enable electric utilities like AEP (American Electric Power) to invest in forestry, agriculture and projects like tropical rain forest preservation in order to meet their CO2 reduction requirements under legislation. Therefore, they can comply with the law while continuing to burn coal.

Now over at the Breakthrough Institute (where I am a senior fellow) Jesse Jenkins has done some math on the consequences of the offset provisions, finding (see figure above):

. . .the offset provisions in the bill — combined with the ability to bank allowances during the major oversupply likely in early years of the program — would allow economy-wide U.S. greenhouse gas emissions to rise at projected business-as-usual rates through the year 2030. Emissions in capped sectors could exceed business-as-usual projections by nearly 9% in 2030 if the full two billion tons of offsets are routinely utilized.

Above is a figure from Jesse’s analysis, and he helpfully provides a spreadsheet showing his work along with his post.