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PUBLICATIONID : 16419
PUBLICATIONTYPE : 1
TYPE : Article
TITLE : Prediction in science and policy
ORIG_TITLE : Prediction in science and policy
AUTHOR : Sarewitz, D and R Pielke
FIRST_AUTHOR : Sarewitz, D and R Pielke
AUTHOR_COUNT : 1
ADDRESS : Columbia Univ, Sci Policy & Outcomes Project, New York, NY 10027 USA; Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Boulder, CO 80307 USA
PUBLISHER : PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD
FIRSTAUTHOREMPLOYER : 3
ABBREV_JOURNAL : Technol. Soc.
BEGINPAGE : 121
ENDPAGE : 133
VOLUME : 21
ISSUE : 2
PUBLISH_DATE : APR
YEAR : 1999
URL : http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/admin/publication_files/1999.09.pdf
REFEREED : 1
RESOURCE : WOS:000080834300001
CITATION : 14
DEPT : CSTPR
LAST_UPDATED : 2012-12-06 14:34:43
ISSN : 0160-791X
IDS : 205RL
DOI : 10.1016/S0160-791X(99)00002-0
ABSTRACT : Prediction in traditional, reductionist natural science serves the role of validating hypotheses about invariant natural phenomena. In recent years, a new type of prediction has arisen in science, motivated in part by the needs of policy makers and the availability of new technologies. This new predictive science seeks to foretell the behavior of complex environmental phenomena such as climate change, earthquakes, and extreme weather events. Significant intellectual and financial resources are now devoted to such efforts, in the expectation that predictions will guide policy making. These expectations, however, derive in part from confusion about the different roles of prediction in science and society. Policy makers lack a framework for assessing when and if prediction can help achieve policy goals. This article is a first step towards developing such a framework. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.
KEYWORDS : prediction; policy; environment; earth science
KEYWORD_PLUS : POLITICS; EARTHQUAKES; MODELS; CANNOT
AREA : Social Issues
PUBLICATION : TECHNOLOGY IN SOCIETY
PLACE : OXFORD
LANGUAGE : English
SERIAL : 16419
PAGES : 121-133
APPROVED : yes
ONLINE_PUBLICATION : no
VERSION : 1
FIRST_AUTHOR_ADDRESS : Sarewitz, D (reprint author), Columbia Univ, Sci Policy & Outcomes Project, 205 Low Mem Lib,Mail Code 4312, New York, NY 10027 USA
AUTHOR_OTHER_FORM : Sarewitz, D; Pielke, R
REFERENCES_NUM : 46
PUBLISHER_ADDRESS : THE BOULEVARD, LANGFORD LANE, KIDLINGTON, OXFORD OX5 1GB, ENGLAND
COUNT : 1
Entered by : Roger Pielke Jr.