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PUBLICATIONID : 47829
PUBLICATIONTYPE : 1
TYPE : Article
TITLE : United States hurricane landfalls and damages: Can one- to five-year predictions beat climatology?
ORIG_TITLE : United States hurricane landfalls and damages: Can one- to five-year predictions beat climatology?
AUTHOR : Pielke, RA
FIRST_AUTHOR : Pielke, RA
AUTHOR_COUNT : 1
ADDRESS : Univ Colorado, CIRES, Ctr Sci & Technol Policy Res, Boulder, CO 80309 USA
PUBLISHER : TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD
FIRSTAUTHOREMPLOYER : 1
ABBREV_JOURNAL : Environ. Hazards
BEGINPAGE : 187
ENDPAGE : 200
VOLUME : 8
ISSUE : 3
YEAR : 2009
URL : http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/admin/publication_files/resource-2786-2009.47.pdf
REFEREED : 1
RESOURCE : WOS:000207909600003
CITATION : 7
DEPT : CSTPR
LAST_UPDATED : 2017-05-24 12:54:16
ISSN : 1747-7891
IDS : V17AH
DOI : 10.3763/ehaz.2009.0017
ABSTRACT : This paper asks whether one- to five-year predictions of United States hurricane landfalls and damages improve upon a baseline expectation derived from the climatological record. The paper argues that the large diversity of available predictions means that some predictions will improve upon climatology, but for decades if not longer it will be impossible to know whether these improvements were due to chance or actual skill. A review of efforts to predict hurricane landfalls and damage on timescales of on to five years does not lend much optimism to such efforts in any case. For decision makers, the recommendation is to use climatology as a baseline expectation and to clearly identify hedges away from this baseline, in order to clearly distinguish err pirical from non-empirical justifications for judgements of risk.
KEYWORDS : economic damage; hurricanes; insurance; prediction; uncertainty
KEYWORD_PLUS : NORTH-ATLANTIC; METEOROLOGY; US; FORECASTS; TREND
AREA : Environmental Sciences & Ecology
FIRST_AUTHOR_EMAIL : pielke@colorado.edu
PUBLICATION : ENVIRONMENTAL HAZARDS-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS
PLACE : ABINGDON
LANGUAGE : English
SERIAL : 47829
PAGES : 187-200
SERIES_VOLUME_NUMERIC : 1
ONLINE_PUBLICATION : no
VERSION : 1
FIRST_AUTHOR_ADDRESS : Pielke, RA (reprint author), Univ Colorado, CIRES, Ctr Sci & Technol Policy Res, 1333 Grandview Ave,UCB 488, Boulder, CO 80309 USA.
AUTHOR_OTHER_FORM : Pielke, Roger A., Jr.
REFERENCES_NUM : 45
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PUBLISHER_ADDRESS : 4 PARK SQUARE, MILTON PARK, ABINGDON OX14 4RN, OXON, ENGLAND
COUNT : 1
EISSN : 1878-0059
VETTED : 1