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PUBLICATIONID : 50742
PUBLICATIONTYPE : 1
TYPE : Article
TITLE : Emergence timescales for detection of anthropogenic climate change in US tropical cyclone loss data
ORIG_TITLE : Emergence timescales for detection of anthropogenic climate change in US tropical cyclone loss data
AUTHOR : Crompton, RP, RA Pielke and KJ McAneney
FIRST_AUTHOR : Crompton, RP, RA Pielke and KJ McAneney
AUTHOR_COUNT : 1
ADDRESS : [Crompton, Ryan P.; McAneney, K. John] Macquarie Univ, N Ryde, NSW 2109, Australia; [Pielke, Roger A., Jr.] Univ Colorado, Ctr Sci & Technol Policy Res, Boulder, CO 80309 USA
PUBLISHER : IOP PUBLISHING LTD
FIRSTAUTHOREMPLOYER : 3
ABBREV_JOURNAL : Environ. Res. Lett.
ART_NO : 14003
VOLUME : 6
ISSUE : 1
PUBLISH_DATE : JAN-MAR
YEAR : 2011
URL : http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/admin/publication_files/2011.02.pdf
REFEREED : 1
RESOURCE : WOS:000289263600004
CITATION : 7
DEPT : CSTPR
LAST_UPDATED : 2013-02-07 16:12:53
ISSN : 1748-9326
IDS : 746RE
DOI : 10.1088/1748-9326/6/1/014003
ABSTRACT : Recent reviews have concluded that efforts to date have yet to detect or attribute an anthropogenic climate change influence on Atlantic tropical cyclone (of at least tropical storm strength) behaviour and concomitant damage. However, the possibility of identifying such influence in the future cannot be ruled out. Using projections of future tropical cyclone activity from a recent prominent study we estimate the time that it would take for anthropogenic signals to emerge in a time series of normalized US tropical cyclone losses. Depending on the global climate model(s) underpinning the projection, emergence timescales range between 120 and 550 years, reflecting a large uncertainty. It takes 260 years for an 18-model ensemble-based signal to emerge. Consequently, under the projections examined here, the detection or attribution of an anthropogenic signal in tropical cyclone loss data is extremely unlikely to occur over periods of several decades (and even longer). This caution extends more generally to global weather-related natural disaster losses.
KEYWORDS : tropical cyclones; climate change; losses; disasters; United States
KEYWORD_PLUS : HURRICANE DAMAGES; UNITED-STATES
AREA : Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
FIRST_AUTHOR_EMAIL : ryan.crompton@mq.edu.au
PUBLICATION : ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
PLACE : BRISTOL
LANGUAGE : English
SERIAL : 50742
APPROVED : yes
ONLINE_PUBLICATION : no
VERSION : 1
FIRST_AUTHOR_ADDRESS : Crompton, RP (reprint author), Macquarie Univ, N Ryde, NSW 2109, Australia
AUTHOR_OTHER_FORM : Crompton, Ryan P.; Pielke, Roger A., Jr.; McAneney, K. John
REFERENCES_NUM : 15
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PUBLISHER_ADDRESS : TEMPLE CIRCUS, TEMPLE WAY, BRISTOL BS1 6BE, ENGLAND
COUNT : 1
Entered by : Roger Pielke Jr.