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PUBLICATIONID : 52004
PUBLICATIONTYPE : 1
TYPE : Article
TITLE : Improving conveyance of uncertainties in the findings of the IPCC
ORIG_TITLE : Improving conveyance of uncertainties in the findings of the IPCC
AUTHOR : Jonassen, R and R Pielke
FIRST_AUTHOR : Jonassen, R and R Pielke
AUTHOR_COUNT : 1
ADDRESS : [Pielke, Roger, Jr.] Univ Colorado, CIRES, Ctr Sci & Technol Policy Res, Boulder, CO 80309 USA; [Jonassen, Rachael] LMI, Mclean, VA 22101 USA
PUBLISHER : SPRINGER
FIRSTAUTHOREMPLOYER : 1
ABBREV_JOURNAL : Clim. Change
BEGINPAGE : 745
ENDPAGE : 753
VOLUME : 108
ISSUE : 4
PUBLISH_DATE : OCT
YEAR : 2011
URL : http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/admin/publication_files/2011.25.pdf
REFEREED : 1
RESOURCE : WOS:000295523600010
CITATION : 4
DEPT : CSTPR
LAST_UPDATED : 2017-05-24 12:54:16
ISSN : 0165-0009
IDS : 828SR
DOI : 10.1007/s10584-011-0185-7
ABSTRACT : Authors of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) received guidance on reporting understanding, certainty and/or confidence in findings using a common language, to better communicate with decision makers. However, a review of the IPCC conducted by the InterAcademy Council (2010) found that "the guidance was not consistently followed in AR4, leading to unnecessary errors . . . the guidance was often applied to statements that are so vague they cannot be falsified. In these cases the impression was often left, quite incorrectly, that a substantive finding was being presented." Our comprehensive and quantitative analysis of findings and associated uncertainty in the AR4 supports the IAC findings and suggests opportunities for improvement in future assessments.
AREA : Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
FIRST_AUTHOR_EMAIL : rjonassen@lmi.org; pielke@colorado.edu
PUBLICATION : CLIMATIC CHANGE
PLACE : DORDRECHT
LANGUAGE : English
SERIAL : 52004
PAGES : 745-753
APPROVED : yes
SERIES_VOLUME_NUMERIC : 1
ONLINE_PUBLICATION : no
VERSION : 1
FIRST_AUTHOR_ADDRESS : Pielke, R (reprint author), Univ Colorado, CIRES, Ctr Sci & Technol Policy Res, Boulder, CO 80309 USA.
AUTHOR_OTHER_FORM : Jonassen, Rachael; Pielke, Roger, Jr.
FUNDING : LMI Research Institute
FUNDING_ACKNOWLEDGEMENT : The authors thank Ms. Julia Kalloz (LMI) for supervising the collection and organization of all the IPCC AR4 findings. Ms. Kalloz also performed much of the initial analysis of finding frequency and oversaw indexing and tagging findings with keywords. Ms. Shaun Lehman (Virginia Tech), Ms. Kristen Cleven (Columbia University) and Ms. Rebecca Freeburn (George Washington University) assisted in collecting the IPCC findings while interns at LMI. Ms. Kelli Canada (LMI intern), Mr. Mark Gross (LMI), Mr. Aman Luthra (LMI), Ms. Lia Marroquin (LMI), and Mr. Daniel Jackson (LMI) assisted tagging findings with search terms. Cathy Becker (LMI) advised on frequency analysis. Mr. Greg Wilson (LMI), Mr. David Manzolillo (LMI), Mr. David Shepherd (LMI), and Mr. Reddy Enugu (LMI) developed the web-based version of CliCKE. We wish to acknowledge the support of the LMI Research Institute for multiple grants to develop the CliCKE database, the underlying research and preparation of this manuscript. Ami Nacu-Schmidt aided in the preparation of the manuscript. We thank an anonymous reviewer for useful comments that improved the text.
REFERENCES_NUM : 10
REFERENCE : InterAcademy Council, 2010, REV IPCC, P36; IPCC, 2005, 4 IPCC, P4; Manning MR, 2003, IPCC WORKSH DESCR SC; Metz B., 2007, CLIMATE CHANGE 2007; Moss R., 2000, 3 IPCC; Pachauri R. K, 2007, CLIMATE CHANGE 2007; [Anonymous], 2007, CLIMATE CHANGE 2007; PBL Netherlands Environment Agency, 2010, ASS IPCC ASS AN STAT; Solomon S, 2007, CLIMATE CHANGE 2007: THE PHYSICAL SCIENCE BASIS, P19; Swart R, 2009, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V92, P1, DOI 10.1007/s10584-008-9444-7
PUBLISHER_ADDRESS : VAN GODEWIJCKSTRAAT 30, 3311 GZ DORDRECHT, NETHERLANDS
COUNT : 1
VETTED : 1