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PUBLICATIONID : 5307
PUBLICATIONTYPE : 1
TYPE : Article
TITLE : Understanding user decision making and the value of improved precipitation forecasts - Lessons from a case study
ORIG_TITLE : Understanding user decision making and the value of improved precipitation forecasts - Lessons from a case study
AUTHOR : Stewart, TR, R Pielke and R Nath
FIRST_AUTHOR : Stewart, TR, R Pielke and R Nath
AUTHOR_COUNT : 1
ADDRESS : SUNY Albany, Rockefeller Coll Publ Affairs, Ctr Policy Res, Albany, NY 12222 USA; Univ Colorado, CIRES Ctr Sci & Technol Policy Res, Boulder, CO 80309 USA
PUBLISHER : AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC
FIRSTAUTHOREMPLOYER : 3
ABBREV_JOURNAL : Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc.
BEGINPAGE : 223
ENDPAGE : +
VOLUME : 85
ISSUE : 2
PUBLISH_DATE : FEB
YEAR : 2004
URL : http://cstpr.colorado.edu/admin/publication_files/resource-1777-2005.43.pdf
REFEREED : 1
RESOURCE : WOS:000220121800017
CITATION : 28
DEPT : CSTPR
LAST_UPDATED : 2017-05-24 12:54:16
ISSN : 0003-0007
IDS : 801UW
DOI : 10.1175/BAMS-85-2-223
ABSTRACT : A case study of the impact of improved precipitation forecasts on the snow-fighting operations of the New York State Thruway is reported. The goal was to use currently available data and literature on forecast process, communication, and use in conjunction with observations and interviews with key decision makers to derive a model that yields estimates of value to users based on a model of their decision processes rather than an optimal decision-making model. That goal proved too ambitious due to limitations in available data. A major lesson learned from this research is the importance of improved, ongoing data collection to support studies of use and value of weather information. A more holistic approach to understanding and realizing forecast value is needed, that is, one in which information (both of forecast skill and usage) centered on the decision process is collected in a much more intensive manner than is presently the case.
KEYWORD_PLUS : PROBABILITY FORECASTS; ECONOMIC VALUE; SKILL
AREA : Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
FIRST_AUTHOR_EMAIL : t.stewart@albany.edu
PUBLICATION : BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY
PLACE : BOSTON
LANGUAGE : English
SERIAL : 5307
PAGES : 223-+
APPROVED : yes
SERIES_VOLUME_NUMERIC : 1
ONLINE_PUBLICATION : no
VERSION : 1
FIRST_AUTHOR_ADDRESS : Stewart, TR (reprint author), SUNY Albany, Rockefeller Coll Publ Affairs, Ctr Policy Res, Albany, NY 12222 USA.
AUTHOR_OTHER_FORM : Stewart, TR; Pielke, R; Nath, R
REFERENCES_NUM : 19
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PUBLISHER_ADDRESS : 45 BEACON ST, BOSTON, MA 02108-3693 USA
COUNT : 1
VETTED : 1