CSTPR Publications >

Publication Detail

PUBLICATIONID : 53572
PUBLICATIONTYPE : 1
TYPE : Article
TITLE : Transformational adaptation when incremental adaptations to climate change are insufficient
ORIG_TITLE : Transformational adaptation when incremental adaptations to climate change are insufficient
AUTHOR : Kates, RW, WR Travis and TJ Wilbanks
FIRST_AUTHOR : Kates, RW, WR Travis and TJ Wilbanks
AUTHOR_COUNT : 1
ADDRESS : [Travis, William R.] Univ Colorado, Ctr Sci & Technol Policy Res, Cooperat Inst Res Environm Sci, Boulder, CO 80309 USA; [Travis, William R.] Univ Colorado, Dept Geog, Boulder, CO 80309 USA; [Wilbanks, Thomas J.] Oak Ridge Natl Lab, Div Environm Sci, Oak Ridge, TN 37831 USA; [Wilbanks, Thomas J.] Oak Ridge Natl Lab, Climate Change Sci Inst, Oak Ridge, TN 37831 USA
PUBLISHER : NATL ACAD SCIENCES
FIRSTAUTHOREMPLOYER : 1
ABBREV_JOURNAL : Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A.
BEGINPAGE : 7156
ENDPAGE : 7161
VOLUME : 109
ISSUE : 19
PUBLISH_DATE : 8-May
YEAR : 2012
URL : http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/admin/publication_files/2012.06.pdf
REFEREED : 1
RESOURCE : WOS:000304090600016
CITATION : 1
DEPT : CSTPR
LAST_UPDATED : 2013-02-07 16:12:53
ISSN : 0027-8424
IDS : 942ZQ
DOI : 10.1073/pnas.1115521109
ABSTRACT : All human-environment systems adapt to climate and its natural variation. Adaptation to human-induced change in climate has largely been envisioned as increments of these adaptations intended to avoid disruptions of systems at their current locations. In some places, for some systems, however, vulnerabilities and risks may be so sizeable that they require transformational rather than incremental adaptations. Three classes of transformational adaptations are those that are adopted at a much larger scale, that are truly new to a particular region or resource system, and that transform places and shift locations. We illustrate these with examples drawn from Africa, Europe, and North America. Two conditions set the stage for transformational adaptation to climate change: large vulnerability in certain regions, populations, or resource systems; and severe climate change that overwhelms even robust human use systems. However, anticipatory transformational adaptation may be difficult to implement because of uncertainties about climate change risks and adaptation benefits, the high costs of transformational actions, and institutional and behavioral actions that tend to maintain existing resource systems and policies. Implementing transformational adaptation requires effort to initiate it and then to sustain the effort over time. In initiating transformational adaptation focusing events and multiple stresses are important, combined with local leadership. In sustaining transformational adaptation, it seems likely that supportive social contexts and the availability of acceptable options and resources for actions are key enabling factors. Early steps would include incorporating transformation adaptation into risk management and initiating research to expand the menu of innovative transformational adaptations.
KEYWORD_PLUS : SEA-LEVEL RISE; GLOBAL TEMPERATURE; SCENARIOS; RESPONSES
AREA : Science & Technology - Other Topics
FIRST_AUTHOR_EMAIL : william.travis@colorado.edu
PUBLICATION : PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
PLACE : WASHINGTON
LANGUAGE : English
SERIAL : 53572
PAGES : 7156-7161
APPROVED : yes
ONLINE_PUBLICATION : no
VERSION : 1
FIRST_AUTHOR_ADDRESS : Travis, WR (reprint author), Univ Colorado, Ctr Sci & Technol Policy Res, Cooperat Inst Res Environm Sci, Boulder, CO 80309 USA
AUTHOR_OTHER_FORM : Kates, Robert W.; Travis, William R.; Wilbanks, Thomas J.
FUNDING : Community and Regional Resilience Institute
FUNDING_ACKNOWLEDGEMENT : We thank Ami Nacu-Schmidt for editorial assistance and the editor and reviewers for alerting us to related work and sharpening our thinking. This work was supported by the Community and Regional Resilience Institute (R.W.K. and T.J.W.).
REFERENCES_NUM : 73
REFERENCE : Adger N, 2009, ENV PLAN A, V41, P2800, DOI DOI 10.1068/A42244; Adger W. N., 2007, CLIMATE CHANGE 2007, P717; African Agriculture Technology Foundation, 2009, ANN REP 2009 AFR AGR, P22; Association of American Geographers, 2003, GLOB CHANG LOC PLAC; Berkes F, 2009, J ENVIRON MANAGE, V90, P1; Berkhout F, 2006, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V78, P135, DOI 10.1007/s10584-006-9089-3; Berrang-Ford L, 2011, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V21, P25, DOI 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2010.09.012; Birkland TA, 2006, LESSON DISASTER POLI; Brickey C, 2010, ENV LAW REPORT, V40, P11215; Burkett M, 2011, ASIAPACIFIC ISSUES, V98, P1; Burton I, 1993, ENV HAZARD; Carpenter SR, 2008, ECOL SOC, V13; Casselman B, 2009, WALL STREET J A 0604, pA3; Cooley H, 2006, DESALINIZATION GRAIN; Costanza R, 2007, AMBIO, V36, P522, DOI 10.1579/0044-7447(2007)36[522:SOCWCW]2.0.CO;2; Craig RK, 2010, HARVARD ENVIRON LAW, V34, P9; Cramer Wolfgang, 2006, AVOIDING DANGEROUS C; Dawson RJ, 2005, INT J WATER RESOUR D, V21, P577, DOI 10.1080/07900620500258380; Deltacommissie, 2008, WORK TOG WAT LIV LAN; de Sherbinin A, 2011, SCIENCE, V334, P456, DOI 10.1126/science.1208821; Dietz S, 2007, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V17, P311, DOI 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2007.05.008; Environment Agency, 2009, THAM EST 2100 MAN FL; Folke C, 2010, ECOL SOC, V15; Ford JD, 2011, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V106, P327, DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0045-5; Ford JD, 2010, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V20, P177, DOI 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2009.10.008; Harries T, 2011, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V21, P188, DOI 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2010.09.002; Heberger MM, 2009, IMPACTS SEA LEVEL RI; Heifetz R, 2010, POLITICAL CIVIC LEAD, P12; Hellmuth M, 2009, INDEX INSURANCE CLIM; Hertsgarrd M, 2011, HOT LIVING NEXT 50 Y; Hundley Norris, 1975, WATER W COLORADO RIV; International Energy Agency, 2002, ONG RES REL SOL ASS; Kates RW, 1996, ENVIRONMENT, V38, P6; Kates RW, 2006, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V103, P14653, DOI 10.1073/pnas.0605726103; Katsman CA, 2011, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V109, P617, DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0037-5; Kingdon J. W., 1995, AGENDAS ALTERNATIVES; Kunreuther HC, 2007, U PENN LAW REV, V155, P1795; Larsen PH, 2008, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V18, P442, DOI 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2008.03.005; Lempert RJ, 2007, RISK ANAL, V27, P1009, DOI 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2007.00940.x; Lenton TM, 2011, NAT CLIM CHANGE, V1, P201, DOI [10.1038/NCLIMATE143, 10.1038/NCLIMATE1143]; Lenton TM, 2008, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V105, P1786, DOI 10.1073/pnas.0705414105; Lesnikowski AC, 2011, ENVIRON RES LETT, V6, DOI 10.1088/1748-9326/6/4/044009; McDonald-Madden E, 2011, NAT CLIM CHANGE, V1, P261, DOI 10.1038/NCLIMATE1170; Mileti DS, 1999, DISASTERS DESIGN REA; Moser SC, 2010, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V107, P22026, DOI 10.1073/pnas.1007887107; Moss RH, 2010, NATURE, V463, P747, DOI 10.1038/nature08823; National Research Council, 2008, POT IMP CLIM CHANG U; National Research Council, 2008, DESALINATION NATL PE; National Research Council, 2010, AM CLIM CHOIC AD IMP; New M, 2011, PHILOS T R SOC A, V369, P6, DOI 10.1098/rsta.2010.0303; Park SE, 2012, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V22, P115, DOI 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2011.10.003; Pelling M, 2009, IHDP UPDATE, V2, P29; Pelling M, 2011, ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE: FROM RESILIENCE TO TRANSFORMATION, P1; Pelling M., 2007, ENVIRON PLANN A, V40, P867; Pidgeon N, 2011, NAT CLIM CHANGE, V1, P35, DOI [10.1038/NCLIMATE1080, 10.1038/nclimate1080]; Reed B, 2011, NATL PUBLIC RAD 0217; Reij C, 2009, AGROENVIRONMENTAL TR; Schipper EL, 2007, CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPT; Schneider S, 2009, NATURE, V458, P1104, DOI 10.1038/4581104a; Smith MS, 2011, PHILOS T R SOC A, V369, P196, DOI 10.1098/rsta.2010.0277; Snover AK, 2007, PREPARING CLIMATE CH; Stone R, 2010, SCIENCE, V329, P1592, DOI 10.1126/science.329.5999.1592; Tebaldi C, 2006, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V79, P185, DOI 10.1007/s10584-006-9051-4; Titus JG, 2011, ROLLING EASEMENTS; Tol RSJ, 2006, J RISK RES, V9, P467, DOI 10.1080/13669870600717632; Tomkins EL, 2005, ENVIRON SCI POLICY, V8, P562; Travis WR, 2010, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V98, P1, DOI 10.1007/s10584-009-9661-8; US Army Corps of Engineers, 2009, AL BAS ER ASS STUD F; U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, 2009, MISS COAST IMPR PROG, V5; Vermeer M, 2009, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V106, P21527, DOI 10.1073/pnas.0907765106; Washington WM, 2009, GLOB ENV CHANGE B, V36, DOI 10.1016/S1464-2867(01)00021-3; West JM, 2009, ENVIRON MANAGE, V44, P1001, DOI 10.1007/s00267-009-9345-1; Willis Stephen G., 2009, Conservation Letters, V2, P46, DOI 10.1111/j.1755-263X.2008.00043.x
PUBLISHER_ADDRESS : 2101 CONSTITUTION AVE NW, WASHINGTON, DC 20418 USA
COUNT : 1