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PUBLICATIONID : 7235
PUBLICATIONTYPE : 1
TYPE : Article
TITLE : Hurricanes and global warming
ORIG_TITLE : Hurricanes and global warming
AUTHOR : Pielke, Jr., R.A., C. Landsea, M. Mayfield, J. Laver, and R. Pasch
FIRST_AUTHOR : Pielke, Jr., R.A., C. Landsea, M. Mayfield, J. Laver, and R. Pasch
AUTHOR_COUNT : 1
ADDRESS : Univ Colorado, Ctr Sci & Technol Policy Res, Boulder, CO 80309 USA; NOAA, Atlantic Oceanog & Meteorol Lab, Hurricane Res Div, Miami, FL 33149 USA; NOAA, Natl Hurricane Ctr, Miami, FL 33149 USA; NOAA, Climate Predict Ctr, Camp Springs, MD USA
FIRSTAUTHOREMPLOYER : 1
ABBREV_JOURNAL : Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc.
BEGINPAGE : 1571
ENDPAGE : +
VOLUME : 86
ISSUE : 11
PUBLISH_DATE : NOV
YEAR : 2005
URL : http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/admin/publication_files/2005.36.pdf
REFEREED : 1
CREATE_TIME : 1352842642
RESOURCE : WOS:000233518400018
CITATION : 92
DEPT : CSTPR
LAST_UPDATED : 2013-02-07 16:12:53
ISSN : 0003-0007
IDS : 987LC
DOI : 10.1175/BAMS-86-11-1571
ABSTRACT : This paper reviews recent research on tropical cyclones and climate change from the perspective of event risk-the physical behavior of storms; vulnerability-the characteristics of a system that create the potential for impacts, but are independent of event risk; and also outcome risk-the integration of considerations of vulnerability with event risk to characterize an event that causes losses. The paper concludes that with no trend identified in various metrics of hurricane damage over the twentieth century, it is exceedingly unlikely 'that scientists will identify large changes in historical storm behavior that have significant societal implications, though scientists may identify discernible changes in storm behavior. Looking to the future, until scientists conclude a) that there will be changes to storms that are significantly larger than observed in the past, b) that such changes are correlated to measures of societal impact, and c) that the effects of such changes are significant in the context of inexorable growth in population and property at risk, then it is reasonable to conclude that the significance of any connection of human-caused climate change to hurricane impacts necessarily has been and will continue to be exceedingly small.
KEYWORDS : TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY; POTENTIAL INTENSITY; CLIMATE; PERSPECTIVE; FREQUENCY; INCREASE; IMPACT; MODEL
KEYWORD_PLUS : TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY; POTENTIAL INTENSITY; CLIMATE; PERSPECTIVE; FREQUENCY; INCREASE; IMPACT; MODEL
AREA : Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
FIRST_AUTHOR_EMAIL : pielke@colorado.edu
PUBLICATION : BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY
PLACE : BOSTON
LANGUAGE : English
SERIAL : 7235
PAGES : 1571-+
APPROVED : yes
ONLINE_PUBLICATION : no
VERSION : 1
FIRST_AUTHOR_ADDRESS : Pielke, RA (reprint author), Univ Colorado, Ctr Sci & Technol Policy Res, 1333 Grandview Ave,UCB 488, Boulder, CO 80309 USA
AUTHOR_OTHER_FORM : Pielke, RA; Landsea, C; Mayfield, M; Laver, J; Pasch, R
REFERENCES_NUM : 35
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PUBLISHER_ADDRESS : 45 BEACON ST, BOSTON, MA 02108-3693 USA
COUNT : 1
Entered by : Roger Pielke Jr.